NFL Week 2

Intro by Yank

The conquering hero returns, and takes over the blog! Savor it friends, your boy is a positive in the overall picks column, a positive in the dollar column AND a positive in the head to head matchup with Sam, a trifecta we may never see again. Let’s get into the results from Week 1. 

The Recap

Let’s start with the best news, we are 1-0 in The Collaboration, strength in numbers! We were all over the Football Team (more on them below), who took it to an Eagles team that was decimated by injuries. In The Confrontation my Rams (more on them below too) took down Sam’s Cowboys, making their fans just as miserable as I predicted. As a Giants fan I think I am going to enjoy Mike McCarthy’s tenure in Dallas. Unfortunately the Panthers couldn’t complete the week of the underdog sweep for me in The Isolation. When Matt Rhule/Joe Brady ran a FB dive on 4th and 1 right into the teeth of the Raiders D to lose the game, I wanted to take back everything nice I ever said about them. Meanwhile, Sam’s purchase of a ticket on the Bucs (and Cowboys) hype-train left him stranded in Loserville. Overall underdogs were 7-9 against the spread in Week 1, which you may think invalidates all my “week of the dog” talk from last week (and again, I’m dumb and bad at gambling) BUT, 6 of 7 dogs who covered won outright. This is something we are going to continue to track. 

The Principles

1. Stay away from bad QBs and bad HCs.
2. Parlay (and tease) at your own peril.
3. Due to the salary cap, there isn’t a significant talent gap between the vast majority of NFL teams.

Nominated Principles:

1. Week 1 is a good week to play underdogs because people are overzealous about favorites. (Verdict: if you’re going to pick a dog Week 1, play the money line)
2. Division games are less predictable than non-division games, due to team/scheme familiarity.
3. Don’t chase your opinion about a team with bets.

Week 2 Picks

The Collaboration (1-0):

The Los Angeles Rams-1.0 (-105) and pk (-110) @ The Philadelphia Eagles 

The Kansas City Chiefs 1H O13.5 (-129) and 1H O14.5 (+105)

Yank: I have already won money on the Rams and it was great, and honestly the rationale is simple. There’s three reasons to like the Rams:

1. Sean McVay is GOOD even if people forgot last year. 
2. Jared Goff is serviceable, which is good enough given their skill talent, and the scheme advantages that come with #1
3. Aaron Donald, the best defensive football player in the world, is on this football team. 

Even if the Eagles get a bunch of injured guys back for this game, I am all over the Rams again this week, and will likely continue to be as long as they don’t have major injuries. This team, healthy, should be the favorite to win the NFC West.

Sam: There are two lessons that I am trying to learn this season. The first lesson applies to the 3rd nominated principle – don’t chase your opinion with bets. In this case, my opinion remains that the Rams are not that great (if you want the details, see Week One: Confrontation) and this week I have the opportunity to course correct when it comes to betting. The stupid version of me would continue to chase my opinion by finding opportunities to bet against the Rams, well not today, Stupid Sam! This leads to the second lesson that I am trying to learn – when you’re not, rely on a friend who’s hot. Yank didn’t lead me astray with the WFT and I don’t expect him to be wrong here (for all of the reasons he listed above and below). 

Yank: You’ll notice a second wager as an addendum to this week’s collaboration. I discovered with the awesome LSU offense last CFB season that when you really like an offense there’s some money to be made betting them to score (shocking). Full game totals have more efficient lines, whereas in the first half that offense is definitely trying to score every drive. This is a bet on Mahomes + awesome coaching + awesome skill talent. I fully expect the Chiefs to score 30 in the majority of their games this year so any time the number is less than 16.5 I am willing to rip it (and Sam is on board too this week). I will not be surprised if the Chiefs score 17 or more points in 13 or 14 first halves this year, just like they did in Week 1. 

Yank’s Play: $5.68 on the Rams (pk) & $5.10 on Chiefs 1H O13.5 (-129)

Sam’s Play: $5.25 on the Rams-1 (-105) & $7.00 on the Chiefs 1H O14.5 (+105)

The Confrontation (Yank+1):

The Arizona Cardinals-7 @ The Washington Football Team

Sam: After last week’s successful Collaboration, this is quite the matchup. From a narrative perspective, you have the Cardinals – the electric, young team with high expectations – who proved themselves in Week One against the Super Bowl Runner-Up 49ers, versus a team that was supposed to be garbage but beat down the “better” Eagles team. As I sat down to write about this matchup, it surprised me that when you strip away the narratives and national hype-train expectations, you can actually describe these two teams in similar ways – second-year, franchise QBs, up and coming young players, good defenses, etc. The difference of course comes down to the details, and that’s why I am on the Cardinal’s side for this one. 

Yank: Ultimately the detail I am interested in is expectations and how they relate to the line. The logic we liked for the FOOTBALL TEAM last week was that most people thought they were worse than they actually are. They proceeded to tick all the boxes there for us by actually looking like a competent, well coached football team (ahem) that improved on offense and once they got it going, terrifying(!) on defense. Now is where we get back to expectations when it comes to the Cardinals. People love offense! And no. 1 overall picks slinging it around! And beautiful wunderkind coaches who look like Ryan Gosling! Here’s the brass tacks though, the 49ers were awesome last year, but are we sure they are as good this year? SB losers almost always have a let down year and I wasn’t impressed by a single aspect of their team last week. On the flip side even if the 49ers are good, divisional games are weird. The Cardinals beat San Francisco last year, even when San Fran was clearly the better team. My theory here is we should not be putting much stock in Arizona’s victory last week, even though many gamblers will want to. Those same people see last week’s performance by the WFT as a fluke. Not so fast my friends, this line is too high, these teams are too similar, the Cards O versus the WFT D is strength on strength and I am happy to scoop up those points. 

Sam: Admittedly, I am not in love with laying -7 on this bet. Throughout this season, you’ll see me attempt to predict outcomes based on the trenches. I will likely jump on any team that can either a.) seriously protect a QB so they can run their offense or b.) absolutely wreak havoc on a team’s OL and thus blow up any game plan. The WFT team has option b.) –  serious beasts on the DL and last week they faced a decimated OL for the Eagles, hence why I picked the WFT last week. The only possible  – albeit not full-proof – solution facing option b.) is having a mobile and creative QB. Enter: Kyler Murray who has the upside of being that type of guy. Furthermore, I didn’t love what I saw from the WFT offense. In the first half, the offense generated 6 punts, a missed FG, and only scored a touchdown after Wentz’s first terrible interception of the game. I expect to see that type of (or should I say non-existent?) production again, but without the Cardinals handing the game over to the Football Team as the Eagles did. The Cardinals should still be able to put points on the board, but I won’t be holding my breath on the WFT offense.

Yank’s Play: $5.50 on the Football Team+6.5 (-110)

Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Cardinals-7 (+100)

The Isolation (Yank 0-1; Sam 0-1):

Sam: Do not give Aaron Rodgers all day to throw. He will pick you apart. Against the Vikings, he had all day to throw and made pinpoint passes. With no noise in the stadium, he was able to take advantage of the DL with his hard count. Now Rodgers is facing a DL that can’t create pressure and a team that is potentially missing 3(!!!) of their top corners. This has all the makings of a repeat performance (hint: pick Davante Adams in your DFS lineups). As for the Ravens, do I really need to justify riding Lamar to victory? Just call me Mark Ingram’s corpse.

Given that this is a tease, I’d be remiss if I didn’t explain why I brought this down and how it might lose. I talked to a couple of Packers fans about this game and was informed that the “division games” nominated principle applies here especially. Despite the Lions being the Lions, they have played the Packers to within a field goal last year and the games are historically close. My only fear here is that the Lions are actually able to establish the run (OMG is this 2020?) against the Packers who’s run defense is suspect. Throw in a few Marquez Valdes-Scantling drops and this game is close, but I’m expecting the Lions to show their true colors at the end of the game. 

On the Raven’s side of things, reports are that last week they had trouble getting the run game going and didn’t generate a whole lot of pressure on Baker.¹ The second issue regarding a lack of pressure is more concerning. The Ravens invested heavily in the DL and if they *actually* can’t get pressure, then that’s a real problem. A bad run game combined with a lackluster pass rush, means Deshaun Watson could eat. I don’t want to have money on the Ravens at a full touchdown and watch Watson sitting in the pocket with all day to throw. As I mentioned in my argument for the Cardinals, a mobile, creative, and great QB is always a terror. Watson has demonstrated that he has the ability to overcome the BOB factor and make the Texans competitive at any point. At the end of the day, if this worst case scenario comes to fruition, I trust Lamar and Tucker to win this ball game, even if it’s only by 3, hence the tease.

Sam’s Play: $6.00 on the Packers-0.5 & the Ravens-1.0 (-120)

Jacksonville Jaguars (moneyline) @ Tennessee Titans

Yank: Division games can be weird. If you take nothing from this blog other than that, remember it. I feel like in every division game the favorite wins in a blowout, or the underdog wins outright, with basically no in between (hopefully for Sam’s pick in this section, I’m right, and he gets the blowout version). Much like my WFT pick, this is expectations driven. I think the Jags may actually be ok. Their skill positions have improved immensely, Gardner Minshew is at worst serviceable, and he is always game to sling it around. Their defense may stink, but are we sure that Tennessee is actually good? If the Jags are going to get them, this is their chance, with the Titans coming off of a short week from MNF in difficult conditions in Denver. Should I hate betting on Marrone…yes. Should I be wary of betting on a 9 point underdog to win outright…yes. But the value here feels too good to pass up. Minshew mania!

Yank’s Play: $3 on the Jaguars ML(+310)

The Bank-Week 2

	Yank	Sam
Starting:	$104.32	$94.17
Risk:	$19.28	$23.25
Potential Earnings:	$23	$22.35
Record:	2-1	1-2
Record against the Spread:	2-1	1-2

Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello

References

1. “The day after: Ravens’ overreactions and observations after their rout of Browns,” By Jeff Zrebiec, Sep 14, 2020, https://theathletic.com/2065643/2020/09/14/the-day-after-ravens-overreactions-and-observations-after-their-rout-of-browns/?article_source=search&search_query=ravens)