NFL Week 7

Intro by Sam

Oof. We felt all of last week. It wasn’t fun. There’s not a whole lot of positives to take away from that experience, but one week isn’t a whole lot of time to sit around, mope, and feel sorry for ourselves. We’re picking ourselves up off the floor and getting back on track!

The Recap

At the end of the weekend, Yank and I were feeling pretty shell shocked. We didn’t know which way was up, down, etc. We didn’t hesitate to pull the trigger on Green Bay at Tampa in the Collaboration and Yank doubled down featuring the Pack in a ML Parlay in his Isolation. We got so excited seeing a top tier team going against a fine team even though that line was weird. Well that’s takeaway number 1, sometimes lines are weird for a reason – we will be investigating weird lines from Vegas moving forward. The second thing we will be looking into this week is psychological motivation. This was as clear an example of one team feeling themselves (Packers) and the other needing a statement win (Bucs). On a side note, I still don’t know how Rodgers threw for basically 2 pick-sixes when he’d only thrown 2 before in his entire career!!! But this is why we’re bad at gambling.

I made up some ground on Yank in the Confrontation by taking the Titans over the Texans. The Texans tried their best, but OT was the nail in the coffin for this one. Once the Titans got the kickoff, it was pretty much a sure thing that Derrick Henry would find a way to the endzone and hit the over for me. In the Isolation, I split my picks. The Steelers made us feel silly for not picking them as our Collaboration by demolishing the Browns, but they’ll be making another appearance this week. The Colts ultimately secured the W, but got off to too slow of a start to cover the 8 points I paid for against the Bengals. Yank’s weekly Chief’s 1st Half Over bet didn’t hit again sadly, leaving him with a big ole donut in the wins column this week. Tough.

This week, we’re going to stay low, keep our feet moving, and take care of business. No more quick triggers. Stay the course, return to the Principles, and trust the process.

The Principles

1. Stay away from bad QBs and bad HCs. Only bet on HCs and Offenses you are confident in.
2. Bet for a team not against their opponent 
3. Parlay (and tease) at your own peril.
4. Due to the salary cap, there isn’t a significant talent gap between the vast majority of NFL teams.
5.  If you’re going to pick a dog Week 1, play the money line.
6. Division games are less predictable than non-division games, due to team/scheme familiarity.

Nominated Principles:

1. Vegas knows better. Some lines don’t look like you think they should – be very careful.

Week 7 Picks

The Collaboration (3-3 ATS; 1-1 bonus bets):

The Kansas City Chiefs-9.5 @ The Denver Broncos

Sam: Yank and I are usually scared away from big lines, but when in doubt, bet Mahomes. We have the HC and QB in this one by a mile. Admittedly, Denver’s defense has been pretty good. They may be a frisky team, but we have something else on our side. In the first game of the division, the Chiefs beat the Chargers by a FG (or 3?) in overtime. Later they lost to the Raiders in a shootout – who saw that coming? Well, do we really think the Chiefs, superbowl champions, are going to let another division opponent hang around? We don’t. Yank and I wanted to explore psychological motivation this week because we felt we got burned by it last week. The Broncos are on a high for beating Cam Newton and the Patriots, meanwhile the Chiefs have come out a tad slow and some doubters are coming out. This weekend is as good a time as any to shut them up. 

Yank: Speaking of the doubters I wouldn’t blame anyone reading this for doubting me. After my terrible performance last weekend I was ready to go full George Constanza, identify my strong opinions and immediately do the opposite. Couldn’t get any worse, right? The more I thought about it the more I realized it was not our approach that was flawed, it was my execution. I’m making some changes this week and there will be an opposite element to each pick, but the underlying principles remain. To that end, there is not a Coach/QB combination I am more confident in than Reid/Mahomes, full stop. The opposite piece is simple, Sam already mentioned it; normally I am scared to lay 9.5 points. What’s the point of being scared here? Is Vic Fangio scary? Is Drew Lock scary? The Chiefs just played a Bills team that is superior to the Broncos in every way, in a monsoon that forced them to run it every play, and still won by 9. No reason to run scared at this point, I’ll take my chances with the best football player alive. 

Yank’s Play: $5.50 on the Chiefs-9.5(-110)

Sam’s Play: $7.00 on the Chiefs-9.5 (-115)

The Confrontation (3-3):

The Pittsburgh Steelers @ The Tennessee Titans-1

Yank: When this game was supposed to be played a few weeks ago, Sam and I loved this matchup for the Steelers. The Titans had snuck out a win against the Vikings while the Steelers looked like a juggernaut. The Titans continue to sneak out wins and the Steelers continue to be excellent. All that said I am now picking the Titans. So what on earth am I doing on this side? It starts with learning from my own mistakes – Sam was right last week, the Titans fit the principles. Quibble if you want that Tannehill isn’t Mahomes, but he’s been one of the best QBs in the league through six weeks. On the coaching side, Vrabel continues to impress and the real Arthur Smith heads know at this point that he’s potentially the most creative OC in the league. We have not even gotten to the one man wrecking crew in the backfield. I’ll admit watching the life go out of Deshaun Watson when the Titans won the OT coin toss is a strong vote of confidence for allocating some capital to the team with Derrick Henry. I’m devastated that Devin Bush is out for the season, but the Steelers missing their best defensive player only underscores my belief that the Titans will put up serious points in this game.

Sam: As a Titans-stan, I am sad to be going against the Titans here. I do think they have a good formula, Tannehill has been excellent, and Derrick Henry is arguably the most game changing pure running back in the league. There hasn’t been a back since Adrian Peterson that could get a carry against an 8-man box and house it multiple times a season (let alone in a game!). That being said, this is strength against strength. The Steelers shut down the Browns’ running game – one of the best in the league – and made Baker look like every Browns QB. Despite missing Devin Bush, I expect more of the same this week. You never want to see the play-caller and leader of the defense miss time, but the Steelers’ defense is full of A+ players. If they can slow down Henry, they will likely disrupt Tennessee’s offensive game plan and I don’t want to be on Tannehill’s side when he’s off script. Lastly, Tennessee’s secondary has been bad. We’ve seen Chase Claypool emerge and the Steelers yet again have a plethora of wide receiver talent. Like every QB outside of Drew Lock who has faced the Titans, I expect the Steelers to be able to move the ball. If things go poorly for me, I like having the Steelers +1 for a last second FG win or tight loss. 

Yank: Sam definitely makes some good points and I’ll admit I’m not stoked to bet against the Steelers. But we’ve already established I’m dumb and bad at gambling. The opposite week portion of this bet is three pronged. #1 I hate immediately betting on a team I just lost against the previous week. #2 My tendency is to believe the Titans are more smoke and mirrors than actually good. #3 I don’t really think home field advantage matters that much this year. Here’s the reality, who cares what I bet last week, the Titans ARE good, even if I don’t want to admit it. We’ve also gone against home teams for 3 straight weeks in the collaboration and guess what we’ve lost 3 straight times. Finally and perhaps most importantly, if you don’t believe me that Tennessee is good, you don’t have to. This line opened at Steelers-1.5 and has moved a full 2.5 points to Titans-1. The best info we have suggests the public overwhelmingly favors the Steelers so the only thing that could move the line that much toward the Titans is support from smart gamblers. I’m a dumb gambler, but I can follow instructions. Titans are the pick here. 

Yank’s Play: $5.50 on the Titans-1 (-110)

Sam’s Play: $5.50 on the Steelers+1 (-110)

The Isolation (Yank 3-6; Sam 4-6):

The Carolina Panthers ML @ The New Orleans Saints

Yank: The initial thought on this one is simple and in line with our principles – I truly believe division games are often strange and a great opportunity for underdogs. As we consider narratives coming into this week, the Panthers are down coming off a loss to the Bears while the Saints are coming off their bye. The reality is this Panthers team is no different from the one many expected to beat the Bears last week. The opposite piece to this bet is based on my own choices. I swore off Carolina after Matt Rhule choked on 4th and 1 in Week 1 against the Raiders to lose me money. I also swore off division MLs after the Jags couldn’t close the deal for me in a similar spot to this in week 2. But overindexing on my own dumb opinions and vendettas is what got me into trouble. The Panthers are #16 in Total DVOA the definition of perfectly average. There’s no doubt the Saints are objectively better, but they are also missing two of their best WRs. In a division matchup, where the public loves the Saints, I think there’s a ton of value on the Panthers who could easily win this game outright. Leaning into the chaos a bit here, might as well take some chances. This is supposed to be fun, right?

Yank’s Play: $4.00 on the Panthers ML(+280)

The Green Bay Packers-3.5 @ The Houston Texans

Sam: Like Yank’s pick, I’m going with a stock down team. Everyone was high on the Panthers last week and they disappointed. Everyone – none more foolish than Yank and I – was high on the Packers and they disappointed too. The Packers fell apart after two totally uncharacteristic turnovers from Rodgers last week and it was miserable watching them have opportunities to climb back into the game and fail over and over again. But that outcome might be as simple as that, this Packers team is the same team we saw tear the roof off of the Vikings, Saints, Falcons, and Lions. I’m consciously trying to not overreact to a bad performance. The Texans team is bad. Yes, some of the numbers indicate that their performance is better than their record, and they’ve faced a murderers row of opponents, but they’re 1-5. They even lost to a bad Vikings team. I would have loved this line at 2.5 more than 3.5, but if the Packers get out to a lead early, I firmly expect them to pull away from the Texans in a statement bounceback win. As Rodgers summed up after last week, the Packers might have been feeling themselves a little too much headed into the Bucs game. I expect a much more focused Packers team this week and for the Packers to have psychological-edge in this one.

Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Packers-3.5 (+100)

The Bank-Week 7

	Yank	Sam
Starting:	$81.79	$77.65
Risk:	$15.00	$17.50
Potential Earnings:	$22.20	$16.09
Record:	10-13	11-3
Record against the Spread:	6-8	7-9

Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello