Intro by Sam
It’s official, the dog days of betting are here. Over the last two weeks, Yank and I are a combined 2-18, and yes, those 2 wins are from the confrontation, so it’s essentially a net 0. We are shaken, but not yet stirred. We are committed to climbing out of this hole and turning things around.
The Recap
As you can see from the chart above, there are not a lot of bright spots from last week. I’ll start with the only win of the week, which had Yank ending my win streak in The Confrontation. Although the final tally was close to the spread, the Rams got the better of the Seahawks with a poor performance from Russell Wilson.
Poor performances were a common theme for us this week. While it is tough for us to point out where exactly we went wrong, we wanted to take a closer look at some of the coaching matchups. For instance, our Packers pick in The Collaboration could have easily covered but there were too many missed opportunities and a strange game plan. A holding call that took away a touchdown and a bizarre fumble from Davante Adams essentially took 14 points off the board for us leading to a never-a-doubt cover by the Jags in the second half. In the bonus matchup, we had the Ravens looking to put a good win on the board winning by -6.5 and… Belichick rained supreme (see what i did there?). When it comes to coaching matchups, you don’t really want to be staring across the field at Belichick.
The Isolation picks don’t get any better folks. Yank and I had the 9ers in some fashion (Yank had the spread +10 and I had the ML). We were in it for a minute and then the real Nick Mullens stood up. I am now 0-4 betting against the Saints… you’d think I’d learn. In the other matchups, I had Chargers +1.5 against the Dolphins to test out our nominated principle. Just like Tua running a crisp play-action pass, Vegas sucked me in and threw it over the top, cashing in on me being a sucker. Meanwhile Yank won’t be saying any Hail Murray’s this week after the Cardinals came up just short of covering his -2.5 by opting not to take the extra point to beat the Bills <let’s have a moment of silence for that bad beat>.
As you can see, we picked two winners who didn’t cover and were on some questionable coaches – LaFleur, Lynn, Kingsbury. The plan is to get back to Principle 1 and win some money this week, so the best advice I can give is: fade us if you ain’t us. On to Week 11!
The Principles
Stay away from bad QBs and bad HCs.Only bet on HCs and Offenses you are confident in.- Bet for a team not against their opponent
- Parlay (and tease) at your own peril.
- Due to the salary cap, there isn’t a significant talent gap between the vast majority of NFL teams.
- If you’re going to pick a dog Week 1, play the money line.
- Division games are less predictable than non-division games, due to team/scheme familiarity.
Nominated Principles:
- Vegas knows better. Some lines don’t look like you think they should – be very careful.
Week 11 Picks
The Collaboration (5-7 ATS; 1-2 bonus bets):
The Miami Dolphins-3.5 vs The Denver Broncos
Yank: At this point in the season we have nothing to lose. Weeks of overthinking it have gotten us nowhere. Might as well start with Principle 1. Miami unquestionably has the coaching advantage in this one. Brian Flores is somehow still underrated leading the Dolphins and scheming up their defensive game plan. They have controlled opposing offenses in the past three weeks including the Rams (5th ranked offense by DVOA), Chargers(11th), and Cardinals(12th). At the same time, the offense has come alive under the stewardship of Tua Tagovailoa, who while still only a rookie, has flashed the immense playmaking ability he demonstrated running roughshod over opponents at Alabama. Miami feels like a rocket ship taking off, but because they have been so bad in recent years they largely have not attracted the notice of the media or the general public. Quietly, they can put themselves into a tie for the division lead with a win this week.
Sam: I made the mistake of betting against the Dolphins the last two weeks and I regret it. The first week, I wasn’t sure if Tua would be comfortable in a game where the defense didn’t dominate: check. In the second game, I wanted to see if Tua could overcome a weird Vegas line and if the defense would keep up its intensity: check. I won’t be making that mistake again. What we like about this matchup is there are a lot of reasons to bet ON the Dolphins. They have a smart, talented QB, some good playmakers, a really good, defensive minded head coach, and they are peaking at the right time. Additionally, they are going up against an underwhelming football team. Denver’s defense has been legit at times, Vic Fangio certainly knows what he’s doing, but it’s been hard to overcome the poor play on offense and they currently can’t decide if they want to play Drew Lock, Brett Rypien, or Jeff Driskel. Hell, I’d be more scared if John Elway came down from his box and checked in this week. Even if Fangio dials up the pressure and throws Tua off, I like this game at -3.5. The Dolphins should win this one big and if it doesn’t go according to plan, they should still be able to squeeze out a win.
Yank’s Play: $5.50 on the Dolphins-3.5(-110)
Sam’s Play: $7.50 on the Dolphins-3.5 (-115)
The Confrontation (6-4 Sam):
The Los Angeles Rams+4 @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-4
Sam: Why do I keep betting on the Bucs? Why am I almost $50 in the hole this season? Probably because I’m dumb and bad at gambling, but I will continue to like the Bucs and dislike the Rams this season until I run out of money. In some ways you could argue that this matchup is a team version of the Spiderman meme where the two Spidermans are pointing at each other. On the Rams’ side you have a dominant defense with a shaky QB under pressure and offensive minded head coach. They are capable of hanging 30 points on anybody or liable to score only 17. With the Bucs, you’ve got a similar script. A good defense that puts pressure on the QB, an old, immobile QB who doesn’t like to get hit, an offensive minded head coach, and as likely to beat you 38-3 as they are to lose 38-3. Here’s what I like about this matchup: I get a 6-time Super Bowl winning QB going up against a 1-time Super Bowl losing QB. Call it your gut, call it a hunch, but I like Brady’s competitiveness and determination to win in this one. Something the Rams don’t have at QB.
Yank: I’ll admit the QB position is not the reason to take the Rams in this spot but I don’t know that the Bucs QB inspires confidence either. To Sam’s point though, there’s a lot of Spiderman pointing at himself similarities to these teams. Both are top 10 by Total DVOA through week 10. Both have offensive minded coaches and big time playmakers on defense. Both are coming off nice wins, and this Monday night game could be a let down spot. To me, the key reason to like the Rams here, though, are the differences. Let’s look at the theme of the week – coaching. The Bucs are one of the top 10 most penalized teams in the league through 10 games. The Rams are second to last, only Belichick’s Pats have been penalized less. I also believe in Sean McVay’s scheme to create offense against a good defense like the Bucs. Meanwhile the Bucs have struggled against good defenses at times, like when they faced the Bears. Which brings me back to similarities; at one point this year Sam provided a compelling case to me that the Rams are basically the Bears. The Bears have bad QB play, but a decent offensive scheme, and a defense that is carried by high level talent like Khalil Mack. Trade out Khalil Mack for Aaron Donald and that sentence could easily apply to the Rams. The Bucs couldn’t even beat the Bears and I am getting 4 points here. That’s it, that’s the rationale.
Yank’s Play: $5.50 on the Rams+4 (-110)
Sam’s Play: $4.00 on the Bucs-4 (-110)
The Isolation (Yank 5-10; Sam 6-11):
The Kansas City Chiefs-6.5 at The Las Vegas Raiders
The Pittsburgh Steelers-10 at The Jacksonville Jaguars
Yank: Two matchups that will hopefully be so solid that even the stink of my 5-10 record in this section can’t taint them.
- We discussed favorites coming off byes having significant upside last week, and that angle led me to the Rams which was my only bet that cashed. It turns out road favorites coming off a bye have even more upside with a record of 62-28 (68.9%) against the spread since 2003.1 The Chiefs are not only coming off their bye as road favorites, this is also a clear revenge spot for their earlier home loss to the Raiders. Andy Reid has made clear his disdain for the Raiders’ method of celebrating after the previous matchup to the media. The Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes. The Raiders still employ Paul Guenther, and half their defense has been unable to practice this week due to COVID restrictions. Let’s get wild and double up on the Chiefs here.
- I have somehow lost two bets to Jake Luton. A sane person would blink at this point. With any other opponent on the docket, even I would likely be unable to continue. However, the Steelers defense creates havoc even for good QBs. Meanwhile on the Bill Simmons podcast this week Nora Princiotti pointed out that Jake Luton was 1-10 for 7 yards and an INT against the blitz last week.2 Seems like something the Steelers’ excellent coaches might work into the game plan. Feels worth my money to bet that Jacksonville’s ability to score via punt returns/defensive TDs etc. has run out. Let’s see if they can get to 17 points this week.
Yank’s Play: $11.00 on the Chiefs-6.5 (-110) and $5.68 on the Steelers-10(-114)
The Philadelphia Eagles @ the Cleveland Browns (U47.5)
The Cincinnati Bengals @ the Washington Football Team ML
The Pittsburgh Steelers @ the Jacksonville Jaguars -18
Sam: I’ve got 3 certified Sam-losing bets for you hot off the plate! Okay, I’m only sort of kidding. Here’s the rationale: In the Browns and Eagles game, I’m trying to capitalize on two underperforming teams playing in less than ideal conditions in Cleveland. Even at their peak performances, neither of these teams are designed to put up a ton of points. Running the football takes a lot of time off the clock without a lot of points. Additionally, it didn’t occur to me to bet on weather conditions and two bad teams until I saw the highlights of that Browns and Texans game last week. Will the weather be that bad again on Sunday? No, but it will be pretty close: a high of 46, rainy, and wind gusts up around 15 mph. Weather might not play as big of a factor statistically as you might think, but I’m also getting two teams that are not scoring a lot of points right now. In their last 4 games, the Browns and Eagles have only surpassed 47.5 points in 1 game each. This could be a trend or it could indicate that they are in line for some regression to the mean of the highest scoring season in the NFL on record. The only other concern I have about this line is that bad teams like to make bad plays. This game could easily come down to who throws the most interceptions, fumbles, or dumb special teams plays. Let’s hope not.
At the beginning of the season, you might have thought this was the official blog of the newly rebranded Washington Football Team. We made a few dollars on them, saw things fall apart, and abandoned ship. Well, I’m ready to take them again in this one. The main reason being Alex Smith. Yank and I loved the defense with Chase Young chasing QBs all over the field, but Haskins and Allen left you feeling empty when they were under center. Now they have a competent, game managing QB who can get the ball to real playmakers like McLaurin and Gibson. Not only that, they are going against a bad team this week, who seem like they have shown some flashes but consistently rank in the high 20s in DVOA. I like Burrow, but rookie QBs under pressure struggle. He should be under pressure in this one and I’m planning to capitalize on the Bengals’ excitement bringing this line down (I opted for the ML in this one because the odds weren’t too different and I didn’t want any weird covering scenarios in this one).
In my last Isolation pick of the week, I’m trying this bet out one. more. time. I think the formula is the same for the Steelers in this game as it was against the Cowboys. They will either dominate this game and win by 3+ scores or it’ll be annoyingly close and they won’t cover. I wanted to juice the odds and hopefully start making some money back so I moved the line to -18 and got +205 odds. As Yank pointed out, there’s a good chance the Steelers score multiple defensive touchdowns this game or stop the Jags from scoring entirely this week by putting pressure on Luton. Steelers, do me a favor this week, and show up against a bad team.
Sam’s Play: $4.40 on the CLE/PHI U47.5 (-110), $5.00 on the WFT ML (-125), $3.00 on the Steelers-18 (+210)
The Bank-Week 11
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $42.18 | $55.59 |
| Risk: | $27.68 | $24.30 |
| Potential Earnings: | $25.00 | $24.82 |
| Record: | 15-25 | 18-24 |
| Record against the Spread: | 11-18 | 14-18 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
References
- “NFL Betting Bye Week Strategy” by Henry John, 30 May 2020, https://www.lineups.com/betting/nfl-bye-week-betting-strategy/
- Bill Simmons, The Bill Simmons Podcast, “The Unlucky Warriors, Harden’s Next Move and the Semi-Resurgent Pats With Kevin O’Connor and Nora Princiotti,” 11-19-2020, https://www.theringer.com/the-bill-simmons-podcast/2020/11/19/21578921/the-unlucky-warriors-hardens-next-move-and-the-semi-resurgent-pats-with-kevin-oconnor-and-nora
One Last Line 