Intro by Sam
Welcome to a special edition of One Last Line! Thanksgiving NFL games are a time-honored tradition and it happens to be one of my favorite sports gambling days of the year. If you’ve been following us throughout the year, you know that we typically sort our picks into 3 categories: Collaboration, Confrontation, and Isolation. If you’re new here, check out our Introduction for the rules to OLL. For Thanksgiving Day, we will just focus on the two games and bet the slate. There’s nothing like a little cash to make these garbage games way more exciting! We will still have our regularly scheduled NFL Week 12 picks on Sunday morning, but we couldn’t resist the opportunity to write about our picks for Turkey Day.
The Principles
Stay away from bad QBs and bad HCs.Only bet on HCs and Offenses you are confident in.- Bet for a team not against their opponent
- Parlay (and tease) at your own peril.
- Due to the salary cap, there isn’t a significant talent gap between the vast majority of NFL teams.
- Division games are less predictable than non-division games, due to team/scheme familiarity
- If you’re going to pick a dog Week 1, play the money line.
Nominated Principles
- Vegas knows better. Some lines don’t look like you think they should – be very careful.
The Houston Texans-3 @ The Detroit Lions
Yank: Happy Thanksgiving y’all. The best thing about this particular holiday is the food. As a person who loves to eat, I’m going to relate each one of these picks to a traditional Thanksgiving dish. You’re welcome. To start with, we have the Lions. They’re on the table every Thanksgiving. They also disappoint…every Thanksgiving. The Lions are the shelf-stable cranberry sauce, the one in the can. I’m sure you’re imagining sliding the butter knife down the can lined edge to cut yourself a piece. Nobody on Earth likes that jellied sauce, and nobody on Earth likes the Lions especially led by Matt Patricia and Matt Stafford with a hurt thumb in this spot. The thing about cranberry sauce is that it’s actually good with the turkey. Likewise, the Lions are used to the quick turnaround required for playing on Thanksgiving. Everyone is down on them for being shut out last week, but that recency bias could be a problem here. Patricia is no worse of a coach than Romeo Crennel. I have a feeling that Houston is no better of a team than Detroit is. There’s no reason to trust Houston as a road favorite on a short week (especially when it seems like 60+% of gamblers are doing so, they don’t say the house always wins for nothing). Slather that cranberry sauce on my main dishes, and don’t be afraid to take Detroit, who could win this game outright.
Sam: Yank makes some really tasty points about the Lions. The Lions are probably not as bad as they played last week and to Yank’s argument, the Texans are probably not as good as they played last week. So where does that leave us? It leaves me putting my faith in the Houston Texans. If the Lions are the traditional jelly cranberry sauce, the Texans are the crazy family members that are either super fun or super the worst. Will the Texans drink a little too much wine and ruin the party? Or will they bring the wine and the good times? I’m banking on the latter. Every year there is a team that starts out rough, whether it be due to injury, bad coaching, or a tough schedule. In 2018, the Eagles were 4-6 and ended up making the playoffs. Last year’s Falcons went 1-4 to start the season but finished the season 7-9 catching some teams by surprise towards the end of the year. The Texans could be that team this year. They are currently 3-7 but don’t be surprised if they end up somewhere around 8-8, 7-9, and I expect that to start this week. The only way this happens is if Deshaun Watson puts the team on his back like he did last week and Romeo Crennel stays out of the way. If Crennel can be less bad than Matt Patricia (which is a low bar), then the Texans should be able to pull this one out.
Yank’s Play: $5.65 on the Lions+3(-118)
Sam’s Play: $6.00 on the Texans-3(-110)
The Washington Football Team @ The Dallas Cowboys-3
Sam: As much as I enjoyed winning some money on the Football Team last week, they didn’t do it in the manner I was anticipating. It took Joe Burrow going out with a horrific knee injury for them to finally put the game way leaving me underwhelmed. The Bengals defense is bad and the Cowboys defense is… less bad? I want Alex Smith to succeed, so I’ll be happy if they win but betting with what you want to happen is a losing strategy. On the other side of the field, you have the Cowboys. I’m not really sure what to make of this Cowboys team with poor performances to start the year, but they looked pretty good against the Vikings last week, whatever you can make of that. The Red Rifle is competent under center, a much-needed upgrade over the Ben DiNucci’s of the world. If he can repeat his performance from last week by getting the ball out quick, then he should be able to neutralize WFT’s best strength: its pass rush. Betting on the Cowboys feels like a dangerous strategy, especially since they are 2-8 against the spread this year, but betting on the Football team feels even less enticing. I think the Cowboys will score some points, but all I need is a 3+ margin of victory. I expect them to cover. If they win by more than a field goal, great, but don’t be surprised if this game is 17-10. Cowboys it is.
Yank: Let me start by saying as a Giants fan I dislike both these teams quite a bit. It particularly goads me to have to watch the Dallas Cowboys, who many people like, but who are potentially my least favorite football team on Earth, each and every Thanksgiving. You know what Thanksgiving food many people like, but I don’t particularly care for? (Editor’s note: brace yourselves for this one everybody) Mashed potatoes. I said it. Mashed potatoes are boring, tasteless, and texture-less. This Cowboys team with Mike McCarthy at the helm and Andy Dalton under center is poised to be totally, completely…fine. Just like mashed potatoes. On the opposite sideline, we have the Washington Football Team. They have some interesting pieces (Chase Young, Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson) but struggle to put it all together. They have scored 6 or fewer points in at least one half in 5 of their 10 games this season (if you make it 7 or fewer points it’s 7(!) of 10). Interesting parts, but generally an underwhelming whole? The Football Team is turkey. Turkey and mashed potatoes, they make sense together on Thanksgiving. Not the part of the plate I look forward to most, though, just like this matchup. As much as I hate to admit it I think Dallas controls this game from start to finish, but the WFT defense is good enough to hold them under 28. I don’t expect Washington’s underwhelming offense to have a breakout game in this spot. I’m glad this game is on during the time we generally eat Thanksgiving dinner, so I don’t have to see much of it. Give me the under.
Yank’s Play: $5.50 on WFT/DAL U46(-110)
Sam’s Play: $7.00 on the Cowboys-3(+100)
The Baltimore Ravens @ The Pittsburgh Steelers-4.5 – POSTPONED
We were bummed like everyone to learn that the Steelers-Ravens matchup had to be postponed due to Covid safety concerns. Yank weaved in a pretty nifty metaphor comparing the Ravens to Brussels sprouts, something we didn’t know we needed, but definitely deserved on Thanksgiving Day. Should the lines and our nerves stay in place, we will postpone our picks for that game and Yank’s poetic imagery for Sunday’s regularly scheduled edition of OLL.
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 