NFL Week 16 – Saturday Edition

Intro by Sam

Welcome to another Saturday edition of One Last Line! This week we are going to post our Isolation picks for the Saturday games in a separate edition. We will have the regular post out on Sunday morning, so expect a full recap from last week and our normal Collaboration and Confrontation picks, as well as a sprinkle on some other Sunday matchups depending on how Saturday’s picks shake out. 

This week we’re continuing our search for teaser candidates that will win the game but won’t cover ATS, analyzing public perceptions that might be inflating the line, and scouring the beat reporters to uncover key trends, injuries, and details that escape public consumption.

The Principles

1. Stay away from bad QBs and bad HCs. Only bet on HCs and Offenses you are confident in.
2. Bet for a team not against their opponent 
3. Parlay (and tease) at your own peril.
4. Due to the salary cap, there isn’t a significant talent gap between the vast majority of NFL teams.
5.  If you’re going to pick a dog Week 1, play the money line.
6. Division games are less predictable than non-division games, due to team/scheme familiarity.

Nominated Principles:

1. Vegas knows better. Some lines don’t look like you think they should – be very careful.

Week 16 Picks

The Isolation (Yank 7-12; Sam 9-19):

Two-Team 6-point Teaser:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-4 (was-10) @ The Detroit Lions

The San Francisco 49ers @ The Arizona Cardinals+1 (was -5)

Sam: Our Isolation picks look pretty similar today in part because Yank and I had an initial lean on both of these teams and we thought it would be worth diving in to challenge our assumptions. Admittedly I felt more comfortable with the Lions early on in this one and wasn’t too sure about the Cardinals. Well, after a week’s worth of research, there’s not much to indicate that either of the Bucs or the Cardinals will lose. The Bucs, although not dominant, have shown that they can win against bad teams, and the Cardinals have played better over the last couple of weeks. Additionally, in both of these cases, we get a little bit of a psychological edge. The Lions are going to be without their Interim Head Coach (not to mention several others (PSA wear a mask)) and the 49ers don’t have a lot to play for since they’re out of the playoffs and the Cardinals need every win they can get. As we’ve pointed out several times this year, we don’t love favorites on the road, but I’m going to take my chances here that the Bucs are better than the Lions and will win at a reasonable number, even if they don’t cover the spread. With this tease, I get the Bucs at -4 – even if I’d like them below a field goal – and the Cardinals to just win at +1.

Sam’s Play: $5 on the Bucs/Cards Teaser (-120)

Two-Team Parlay:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-2.5 (was-10) @ The Detroit Lions

The San Francisco 49ers @ The Arizona Cardinals ML (was -5)

Yank: There are two main reasons I got behind this teaser early this week. The first is that the Bucs and Cardinals both need to win as they jockey for playoff positioning. The second is I believe the Lions and 49ers are zombie teams due to injuries and the nature of having a bad record during this crazy season. The Lions are missing the majority of their already interim coaching staff! The 49ers have been living in Arizona for weeks because they are not allowed to play football in their own county! There are still reasons to be careful here. The Bucs are the highest variance team in the league this year according to DVOA, which is definitely backed up by the eye test. The Cardinals are still playing a well-coached team from their own division who is getting a major playmaker back in George Kittle. However, I got some pretty favorable odds parlaying these two games together, and I am happy to take my chances with the two favorites, who need a W, to ward off the zombies and secure a win.

Yank’s Play: $5.50 on the Bucs/Cards Parlay (-110)