Intro by Sam
| Sam | Yank | |
| Playoff Record | 3-4 | 5-3 |
| Record ATS | 2-3 | 4-2 |
| Current Balance | -$7.60 | $5.51 |
Another weekend, another good slate of playoff football matchups. Last week went about as expected for us, with a couple of hits and a few bad breaks. I personally had about the worst 10 minute stretch of football you can have as a gambler starting with the refs overturning a Brees touchdown that would have put my -18 bet in the bank, to Jimmy Graham catching a meaningless touchdown to take away me escaping with a push, and ending with the Browns running up 28-0 all but solidifying the defeat of our Steelers -7 picks. Alas, we are not going to live in the past. We’re going to persevere, keep making bad picks, and take pleasure in what should be a good weekend of football.
Power Rankings
| Sam | Yank |
| 1. Chiefs 2. Packers 3. Bills 4. Saints 5. Ravens 6. Bucs 7. Rams 8. Browns | 1. Chiefs 2. Packers 3. Saints 4. Ravens 5. Bills 6. Rams 7. Bucs 8. Browns |
| Super Bowl Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs Green Bay Packers | Super Bowl Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs LA Rams |
| Winner: Green Bay Packers | Winner: Kansas City Chiefs |
Saturday Divisional Round Picks
The Los Angeles Rams @ The Green Bay Packers-7
Yank: My affinity for the Rams has become a running joke for Sam who has looked on skeptically as I included them in my Super Bowl pick, but they just keep coming through. They have the hottest defense in the league (backed up by weighted DVOA as mentioned last week). Last week they also had a great matchup with the flailing Seahawks. On its face, this matchup couldn’t be more of a 180. You last saw the Packers running playoff teams off the field in weeks 16 and 17. They are coming off a bye and it is almost impossible to win at Lambeau in the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers is going to run away with the MVP award. Davante Adams is uncoverable. Everybody you know is excited to bet on Aaron Rodgers against Jared Goff with a broken thumb this weekend, getting the Packers-0.5/-1 in a tease looks like an absolute no brainer. And yet…
I can’t get images of Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers running this team off the field last year out of my head. Better yet how about Tompa running this Packers team off the field this year? What has this Packers team done to show they are reliable in a big spot against a good defense? Isn’t the Packers’ biggest advantage Davante Adams, the best WR in the league? Are we sure Jalen Ramsey can’t cover him? While we’re at it, are we definitely sure the Packers patchwork OL can keep Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd, and Co. out of the backfield? The Rams can counter the Packers’ biggest strengths. What about the Packers’ biggest weakness—defending the run. In their three losses, the Packers gave up 140, 163, and 173 yards on the ground. The key to the McVay scheme that has revolutionized the league these past few years is running the ball effectively to set up play action. I think the Rams have the better defense and a significant advantage in the coaching matchup. Normally I’d take the points and get out of here, but I want to be against everyone who will have the Packers on a teaser or Moneyline parlay, so I’m rolling over my ML winnings from last week on the Rams ML as well.
Sam: Everything Yank covers here seems like sound reasoning. The Rams defense is incredible, the Packers defense is susceptible to the run, and LaFleur hasn’t wowed anyone with his player management or play calling either for that matter. So why is this line so high? Well, it starts with Aaron Rodgers and ends with Jared Goff has a broken thumb. In some ways, this Rodgers led team has the “nobody believes in me” edge. Sure he is the leader for MVP, but remember that his own team drafted a QB in the first round. Rodgers is pissed, and that’s not something to take lightly. Additionally, as Yank astutely points out, McVay has done his damage on offense through play-action passing. Unfortunately for them, they have a guy at QB who can only throw ducks right now. I’ve been a Goff hater for a while, but I even feel bad for him seeing him try to throw the ball down the field. Not only that, but having watched the Vikings try and run a successful play-action offense against the Packers, they’re actually pretty good at defending it. They often let the Defensive End or Outside Linebacker hang back so when the QB boots, there is a guy unblocked in his face. Goff will not be able to make a throw with a guy in his face.
And interestingly enough, the Rams offense might actually be the blueprint for taking advantage of this Rams defense. The Rams are 24th in QBR against play-action, 22nd in yards per attempt, and 32nd in yards of separation in those scenarios. Meanwhile, Rodgers and the Packers are 1st in QBR, completion percentage, and touchdowns off of play-action.1 Womp, womp. That once-vaunted defense doesn’t look so good when you play into the hands of Rodgers and the Packers offense (could you imagine Rodgers in McVay’s system? wow…). What does that leave us with? The Rams will need broken thumb Goff to throw the ball in cold Lambeau (ouch), the Packers have the ability to take advantage of the Rams defensive weaknesses, and Rodgers is motivated. Sure the Rams can probably still run on a porous Packers defense, but in the words of legendary New York Giants Defensive Coordinator Bill Belichick, let Thurman Thomas (in this case the Rams) run for 100 yards on us and we will win the game.
Yank’s Picks: $5.68 on the Rams+7(-114) and $3.00 on the Rams ML(+270)
Sam’s Picks: $4.00 on the Packers-7(+100) and $7.50 on the Packers/Ravens Money Line Parlay(+190)
The Baltimore Ravens @ The Buffalo Bills-3
Sam: I am very excited about this matchup. The Bills have been molten lava hot lately, and the Ravens are playing with an edge. This is going to be a mega-duty, hard-fought game. Of course, everyone who plays in the NFL is passionate and hates to lose, but we have some competitors in this game who wear their emotions on their sleeves. Diggs is a lightning rod and Lamar was so pissed at the Titans he left the field without shaking hands. That’s the kind of fire you want to see in a Divisional Round playoff game.
On the picking side of things, I am going to keep riding the Ravens. I think the Bills’ offense has been great but also benefited from the AFC East bounce that Tom Brady capitalized on for so many years. The Ravens defense (#9 in total defensive DVOA) has flown under-the-radar for most of the season due to some key injuries, but they’re back healthy and playing their best football of the year.2 I can’t wait to watch Peters lined up against Diggs and that DLine chasing after Josh Allen. Furthermore, I think the Bills defense has shown that they’re pretty susceptible to the run game, but no one has really tried to take advantage of it. Well, they definitely have a serious test this week in the #3 Rush Offense by DVOA and Lamar Jackson, who single-handedly took down the Titans last week.3 This game should play out similar to the Titans game last week and I can’t wait!
Yank: I wish you all could see iMessage threads that Sam and I have worn down our iPhone screens discussing the Bills. On second thought, you’d probably need to measure them in yards…or kilometers…why don’t I distill it down for you here: I don’t believe in Josh Allen.
I’m sorry… actually you know what, I’m not even sorry. I just don’t. Congrats to Allen, and to his OC, Brian Daboll, who have done a tremendous job accentuating his strengths and hiding his flaws this year. For 10+ weeks he looked like an assassin and their offense looked unstoppable. Then the playoffs arrived, they faced a team highly competent on both offense and defense, and that attack came crashing back down to normalcy. Even more importantly than that, good old Josh Allen showed his true colors in the game’s biggest spot getting stripped, losing 30 yards, and finding himself lucky that Daryl Williams fell on the ball to save his bacon. He had the exact same look in his eyes as when he inexplicably pitched the ball back leading to a fumble in the playoffs against the Texans last year. The real Josh Allen is in there and I expect him to stand up (fall flat) in a big spot at some point again tonight.
On top of that, everyone you know and everyone on TV has been looking to crown the Bills the newfound kings of the AFC. Never mind the fact that their defense has been mediocre against good teams all year and that their offense is completely one-dimensional. The one dimension they have, an incredible passing attack, is the most important thing you can have in the modern NFL and has given rise to the idea that “this team is even looking better than the Chiefs right now”. No F-ing way. I’ve been waiting for this day for a while now, reader. I told Sam in week 16 in the aforementioned text thread that the team I wanted to see play the Bills in the playoffs was the Ravens. Their offensive strength, rushing, is Buffalo’s weakness. They have excellent DBs and pass rushers to throw at Allen, Diggs, and Co. I love the matchup for the Ravens. I love that Lamar has been in this spot before and knows what it takes. I love that Harbaugh can tell this team that nobody believes in them. Can’t wait to watch this game.
Yank’s Picks: $10.00 on the Ravens ML(+125)
Sam’s Picks: $4.00 on the Ravens+2.5(-105) and $7.50 on the Packers/Ravens Moneyline Parlay(+190)
The Bank
| Yank | Sam | |
| Risk: | $18.50 | $15.50 |
| Potential Earnings: | $25.60 | $22.13 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
References
- Peter Bukowski, “Packers can borrow from Bills’ playbook to beat Rams’ defense with play-action,” 1/14/2021, https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2021/1/14/22229411/packers-rams-playoff-preview-aaron-rodgers-play-action-buffalo-bills and The Mina Kimes Show featuring Lenny, https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-mina-kimes-show-featuring-lenny/id1437647915
- “2020 NFL Offensive Efficiency Ratings,” https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-offense/2020
- “2020 NFL Defensive Efficiency Ratings ” https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2020
One Last Line 