Intro by Sam
| Sam | Yank | |
| Playoff Record | 5-7 | 5-10 |
| Record ATS | 4-5 | 4-6 |
| Current Balance | -$18.34 | -$36.17 |
We lived, we laughed, we lost, and we lost again, and again, and again. You could say it wasn’t our week, but it hasn’t really been our week during any of the last 19… Nevertheless, we are proceeding to the excitement of a new week with even better matchups! The spreads indicate that these games should be close so the goal this week is to parse out who we think will win. Let’s hope we capitalize!
Power Rankings
| Sam | Yank |
| 1. Chiefs 2. Packers 3. Bills 4. Bucs | 1. Chiefs 2. Packers 3. Bills 4. Bucs |
| Super Bowl Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Super Bowl Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs Green Bay Packers |
| Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Winner: Kansas City Chiefs |
Conference Championship Picks
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ The Green Bay Packers-3.5
Yank: I hate to say it but I got smoked like Kansas City ribs last weekend. We will get to Kansas City in a bit but nevertheless, I am a bit gun shy coming off a weekend where essentially everything I expected was wrong (I am basically begging you to fade me at this point). My first mistake last week was betting against a red hot Aaron Rodgers. My whiplash reaction to that is that the Packers are definitely the bandwagon to be on this week. Does that mean the Packers are going to lose? People all over Wisconsin should be thankful that I’m too scared of my own instincts at this point to bet on their team. If you’re looking for actual analysis of the game I’ll leave it to Sam, at this point the best thing I can do is get out of the way.
Sam: As Yank points out, we’ve been prone to the whiplash reaction bet all season, but in-depth analysis hasn’t helped us out much either… In either case, here’s what I have to offer: the Packers and Bucs offenses are #1 and #3 by Total DVOA and #1 and #2 by weighted DVOA – an objective measure of performance and effectiveness. The Packers and Bucs defenses are #5 and #17 by Total DVOA and #6 and #14 by weighted DVOA. The Packers have a relative weakness compared to the Bucs. That being said, neither Yank nor I have been convinced by this Bucs team. We think something is off with their offense and the defense is exploitable, which is weird because the numbers don’t truly back that up. So what do you do with that information? It’s either you believe in Rodgers magic or that statistical differences in performance will have a meaningful impact on the outcome of the game. This week I’m going with the stats. Rodgers scares the hell out of me, but having a good defense should matter and this will be the *easiest* defense that the Bucs offense will have faced during the postseason. Give me Brady in this one.
Yank: The logic to take the Bucs based on the defensive analytics makes sense and is also against my first instinct so that’s two points in its favor. For some reason (probably the usual reason, I’m dumb and bad at gambling), I still don’t want to just take the Bucs and the points. I’m going to take a shot on Bucs-6 because I like the long odds, and if the Bucs do win I think there’s a decent chance it’s by a TD or more. The other wager I really like is Davante Adams to go over 87.5 receiving yards. I don’t believe in the Bucs DBs, even if the numbers suggest they have a good pass defense. They are not great against #1 WRs, you may remember Tyreek Hill putting 200 yards on them in a half. Adams is the #1 of the #1s; I like his chances to have a big day.
Sam: As for prop bets, I’m loading up on the QB’s to run in a score with Rodgers at +350 and Tom Brady at +450. Neither of these guys are making a ton of plays on their legs these days, Rodgers more than Brady certainly, but they do like to get crafty around the goal line. We saw Brady go in for a sneak last week and he’s one of the best to do that all-time. I think the Bucs can run on the Packers so I’m anticipating a few red zone opportunities. Rodgers gives me a little more wiggle room to scramble in. Similar to Brady, he ran one in last week and it’s not an unusual sight. I like my chances. Finally, I grabbed Gronk to score at any point in the game at +220. How many times have we seen Brady and Gronk connect in the Conference Championship game when the game was on the line? Too many to count. With Brown out this week, I can definitely see Brady turning to his security blanket a lot.
Yank’s Picks: $3.00 on the Bucs-6(+390)
Yank’s Prop Bets: $4.94 on Davante Adams O87.5 Receiving Yards(-124)
Sam’s Picks: $6.00 on the Bucs+3.5(-110) and $3.00 on the Bucs ML(+165)
Sam’s Prop Bets: $5.00 on Rob Gronkowski to score(+220), $2.00 on Tom Brady to score(+450), and $4.00 on Aaron Rodgers to score(+350)
The Buffalo Bills @ The Kansas City Chiefs-3.0
Sam: As I mentioned in the Intro, every team left is good and the spreads indicate these games will be close. Unlike the first game of the weekend, I don’t have any stats or analysis that point to one team or the other. The Chiefs’ offense is incredible, the Bills’ offense is awesome, and both defenses suck. Everybody was congratulating Leslie Frazier for a great performance last week, but the Bills let the Ravens rack up 340 yards of offense and move the ball all over them. They’re a bad, bad, bad throw from Lamar Jackson away from being tied (prior to that pick-6). Alas, it’s not like the Chiefs defense has been on top of things either. In Ty Schalter’s recent article for FiveThirtyEight, he describes how the Chiefs run a modern version of the control-the-clock-offense. Yank and I posited that they run a ball-control offense to keep their bad defense off of the field. Where does that leave us? In the article above, Schalter states that the Chiefs are statistically the 3rd luckiest team in NFL history. Luckiest meaning that they won a lot of games that they shouldn’t have, but when it mattered most, Mahomes delivered. I think Mahomes is special, Yank thinks Mahomes is special, a lot of people think he’s special. It seems as if when his team needs him, he rises to the occasion and that’s what I’m betting on this week.
Yank: The Chiefs game was the only game on last week’s docket where my initial expectation appeared to be correct. Kansas City came out on fire against a limited Browns defense. Of course, in a sign of just how much it was not my week, right about when KC could have put the game away with one more score the Browns sent in a faceless man at linebacker to rip Patrick Mahomes head off. Luckily it seems like Mahomes will be fine, but replacing the best QB on earth had predictable side effects for the Chiefs’ offense. Meanwhile, as the Bills cruised to a comfortable win over the Ravens they obscured the fact that they barely cracked 200 yards of total offense. I once again have no earthly idea who is going to win this football game. Gun to my head I would bet on Mahomes against the Bills. Since I am dumb and bad at gambling I am going to rely on fading myself and mean reversion instead. I have lost a zillion dollars betting against the Bills, so I am putting money on them to cover. That’s the type of hard-hitting analysis you can only get on One Last Line. On the mean reversion front, the Bills offense is awesome, Pat Mahomes is expected to play, and both these defenses stink. Feels worth the risk to put a few Gregs on the over since as of this writing people are still a bit skeptical about Mahomes being healthy. I wouldn’t be surprised if the total is 2-3 points higher by game time. Finally, I’m betting Ty Hill to score because when the Chiefs are playing Tyreek Hill generally scores a touchdown.
Sam: On the prop bet market, I’m doubling down on Stefon Diggs. Diggs has been awesome. He doesn’t shirk from the limelight and when given the opportunity, he produces. I feel like having him to score at -110 at all is a steal and I’m backing that bet up by betting on him to score first for the Bills. Plus, if I have money on Diggs, I won’t be so scared when he’s lighting up a bad Chiefs defense and jeopardizing my spread pick.
Yank’s Picks: $5.00 on Bills/Chiefs O54 (-110) and $2.33 on Bills+3.5(-117)
Yank’s Prop Bets: $4.73 on Tyreek Hill to score a TD(-134)
Sam’s Picks: $7.50 on the Chiefs-3.0(-115)
Sam’s Prop Bets: $5.00 on Stefon Diggs to score(-110) and $2.00 on Stefon Diggs to score first for the Bills(+400)
The Bank
| Yank | Sam | |
| Risk: | $20.00 | $34.50 |
| Potential Earnings: | $25.42 | $63.47 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 