A Super (Bowl LV) Confrontation: The Proposition Competition

Intro by Yank

The boys are back for One. Last. Line. It’s Super Bowl Weekend!!! Our hearts are heavy for the end of the season, our wallets are lighter than when we began, but we didn’t choose the name of this blog lightly. Your favorite degenerates are so pumped for the “big game” we’re going to give you a double dose of picks to fade this weekend. For our first trick, we are going to double down on our new way to make our money disappear: prop bets! We’ve dabbled in the prop bet arena during the playoffs, but the Super Bowl is a true bonanza. 
More importantly, it wouldn’t be One Last Line if we didn’t make it into a competition, because as Sam so aptly stated when we began this whole venture someone always has to win. In this case, the rules are simple: $5 to spend, any and all props are on the table, most money when the dust settles wins. To the victor goes the spoils. On to the picks!

Bet #1

Yank‘s Pick: Jason Pierre Paul to have the first sack of the Game+700

Yank: In honor of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers playing this game in their home stadium adorned with a life-size pirate ship, I am going to heavily reference Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl as part of my rationale for each of the bets. And what better place to start than the Buccaneers defense. Many people have said it’s impossible to match the Chiefs’ offense for speed, or talent. Enter the Black Pearl: a ship “crewed by damned and captained by a man so evil…that hell itself spat him back out”. The egghead soldiers in the movie don’t believe the Black Pearl is real. Similarly, a defense that can slow down Patrick Mahomes seems like an impossible fantasy. These Bucs defensive players could end up surprising a ton of people Sunday night, like the Black Pearl entering Port Royal to claim their missing Aztec gold. They are fast, talented, and well-coached. Part of that excellent coaching is they are stalwart against the run. I fully believe the Chiefs will be throwing the ball more than usual rather than run into a brick wall over and over for no reason. More pass attempts=more sack opportunities. Tom Brady is a master of avoiding sacks, so getting extra juice for the first sack of the game as opposed to the first Bucs sack feels worth the risk. Jason Pierre Paul has flourished in his role as an undead crew member of this rowdy Bucs defense and leaned into the villain role even more this week, asking “who” when prompted about KCs starting LT. That guy is Mike Remmers, who is on his 9th team in 8 years. I don’t think JPP is going to need to walk on the bottom of the ocean to get past him at least a couple of times on Sunday. 

Sam – Tyrann Mathieu 1+ Interceptions +300

Sam: With Yank going defense for his first pick, I will too. After watching the NFC Conference Championship, Yank and I talked about trying to find odds for Brady to throw a pick. As you might expect, those odds are pretty lame for me as a degenerate. So as I was stumbling through my betting sites’ clunky prop station, I ran into Tyrann Mathieu to have 1+ interceptions at +300. Ding, ding, ding – we have a winner! I feel pretty confident that Brady will throw a pick (if not more than one) and who else would be there to pick it off other than the Honey Badger? For instance, think about the 50-yard lob Brady threw to Godwin against the Packers. Godwin made a spectacular catch, but the safety made a bad play on the ball too. I expect the king of turnovers and highlight-reel plays, Tyrann Mathieu, to have a good chance to come down with a pass like that. Of course, there’s a chance Tompa sticks to check-downs this Sunday, but given their propensity for deep shots (Brady leads the league in intended air yards – meaning the ball traveling through the air on every pass – this season), I expect there to be plenty of opportunities.

Bet #2

Sam: Mecole Hardman 3+ receptions, 25+ yards, 1+ TDs+300

Sam: Here’s a nice, low-hanging parlay for you. Mecole Hardman is a dynamic play-maker who can turn on the jets as we saw in the AFC Conference Championship. While he doesn’t produce consistently, I would expect the Bucs to be all over Hill on Sunday, given what he did to them earlier this season, which opens more targets for other players. Of course, Hill and Kelce will get theirs, but it would be foolish for the Chiefs to not try and get the ball into the hands of the speedy Hardman a couple of times throughout the game. This prop gives you a low, but fair 3+ receptions, a meager 25+ yards (he could get this in one reception), and finding the endzone one time. The Chiefs like to get a little whacky when they get into the Red Zone so there’s no telling who will score – honestly it could be Mike Remmers this week for all the shade that JPP threw his way – but with Hardman, you have the chance for a Special Teams touchdown or some kind of run/trick play too. The odds are a bit low on this one, especially given his production, but I like the matchup, game plan, and uniqueness of the Super Bowl to be in his favor.

Yank’s pick: Tyreek Hill to record the longest rush+800

Yank: Everyone on both sides is a pirate in this football game whether they know it or not, at least from my purview. Tyreek Hill is no exception, although like his comp, the erstwhile pirate Will Turner (played by Orlando Bloom), he may not know it yet. Turner begins the film as a master of his craft as a blacksmith, though under-appreciated. Similarly, Tyreek Hill’s craft is speed and elusiveness, which he spends most of his time taking advantage of as a receiver. The beauty of the blacksmith’s art is that it gives you plenty of time to perfect swordplay. For Hill, his game-breaking ability is multifaceted as well. He is not only limited to catching the ball and can just as easily turn a reverse or jet sweep into a big play. As mentioned previously the Bucs run D is going to shut down the Chiefs RBs.The main competition here will be with the Bucs RBs, do we really expect playoff Lenny or Ronald Jones to break a long run? It’s certainly possible, but I think it’s worth the risk to take a flier that our blacksmith out-swashbuckles the sword fighters so to speak. With KC knowing they need to get creative he should get a couple carries to show off his skills.

Bet #3

Yank’s Pick: Scotty Miller to record the longest reception+1400

Yank: I almost hit this bet last year when Emmanuel Sanders let a critical fourth-quarter deep shot bounce off his hands. Since the Chiefs dig the long ball the WRs on the other side tend to get an odds boost in this category. In reality, in a game with a lot of scoring (as I expect here) the longest reception is going to be somewhat random. Enter Jack. No, not that one, they named the monkey Jack.

Our Jack for this wager is Scotty Miller, easy to forget about (ask Mike Pettine) he often gets lost in the crowded Bucs WR room. Yet he always seems to come up with a critical snag at the right time, like Jack the monkey snatching the pirate medallion when least expected. I’m not sure that Jack the undead monkey runs a 4.39, though I bet we hear about Miller doing so at the combine from our friends Tony and Jim at least once. That’s all it takes here, one play, one deep shot, one Chiefs secondary member making that surprised Jack Sparrow face. 

Sam’s Pick: Tom Brady 325+ yards, Fournette 1+ TDs, Godwin +6 receptions, TB wins+725

Sam: Scotty “Jack” Miller coming down with a 50 yard heave in the manner of the NFC Championship games feels pretty likely. Less likely is the Bucs pulling this game out, nevertheless here I am with my money on the Bucs. In full disclosure, I kind of like the Bucs in this matchup and if I’m right, I think this bet is a no-brainer lock. Here’s the case: regardless of the outcome of the game, Godwin will likely get 6 receptions and Fournette has had a nose for the end zone lately. If this were a crossword, you could write those in pen. Brady getting 325+ seems like a bit of a stretch. He came up 45 yards short against the Packers, nowhere close against the Saints, and surpassed this total against the Football Team (couldn’t help myself but get one more reference of the Football Team in this season in case we never see that name again). Additionally, in what was ultimately a 3 point game in their matchup earlier this season, Brady threw for 345. In other words, it’s going to be tight. What gives me the confidence to pull the trigger on this bet, is that I think that Brady is going to *have to* throw for 325+ yards if they’re going to win. And if they’re going to win, then this bet hits. There it is, that’s the case.

Bet #4

Sam – Travis Kelce to win MVP +1000

Sam: I know what you’re thinking: Can anyone win MVP other than Mahomes or Brady? The answer is probably not, but to the tune of 10:1 odds it’s worth a flier on Kelce. In case you missed it, Kelce almost led the ENTIRE LEAGUE in reception yards this season. A tight end – in 2020!!! That’s not getting talked about enough. If he does what we think he’s capable of: 100+ yards, 2+ TDs, and 12+ receptions, I think this bet has legs. Of course if this were to hit, it would have to be in a slugfest. The Bucs defense would really need to do a number on Mahomes – probably force a few bad throws, some picks, a couple sacks, etc. This isn’t the only time something bizarre like this happened. In 2019 the Rams-Patriots Super Bowl had an O/U of 56.5 points and that game ended 13-3 (what was that?). Julian Edelman won Super Bowl MVP that day – a fact that will no doubt go down in history as truly unbelievable. Suffice to say, if this game isn’t a massive blowout, Kelce eats, and the Chiefs win, I’ve got a chance! 

Yank’s pick: Travis Kelce and Clyde Edwards-Helaire both score TDs+500

Yank: I’m sure you’re surprised it took me this long to get here, but we all know who Captain Jack Sparrow is in this matchup. It’s Patrick Mahomes. When the eggheads ask, Captain Jack makes clear: “my intentions are to commandeer one of these ships, pick up a crew in Tortuga, then raid, pillage and plunder my weasley black guts out”. Patrick Mahomes doesn’t need to commandeer the football, he’s guaranteed to get it, he’s already picked up his crew of reserve linemen in Tortuga, and the only steps left are to raid(throw), pillage(throw), and plunder(throw some more), until he owns that pirate ship in the stadium and the Lombardi trophy. What does any of that have to do with this bet? The Chiefs are going to throw – a lot – and score – a lot. That’s the basis for each of these last two bets. I think it’s basically a lock that Travis Kelce catches a TD at some point in this football game. On top of that, the odds Patrick Mahomes throws O3.5 TDs are long for a reason. Someone on the Chiefs is going to score a rushing touchdown. Clyde Edwards-Helaire may not seem like a logical choice as a guy who has been either injured or ineffective near the goal line all year. The bet here is that Clyde, as KC’s most dynamic RB, will play the greatest number of snaps and thus get the most chances. At first glance he may seem like the worst bet to score you’ve ever heard of; to which my counter would be “ah, but you have heard of him”. 

Bet #5

Yank’s pick: Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes both score TDs+600

Yank: No need to belabor the point on this one. I think Kelce is basically a lock to score and think the move is to try to guess right on who runs one in at long odds. At first I considered Darrel Williams, but why not let Captain Jack himself take me home. Mahomes is more mobile than people realize, isn’t afraid to run in the right spots, and plays in an offense that isn’t afraid to get whacky, as Sam said, so some type of Philly special throwback pass is never out of the question either. At some point the Bucs defense will seem to have him cornered and Mahomes will escape. As he bellows “today is the day you will always remember as the day you ALMOST caught Captain Jack Sparrow” hopefully he’s putting the captain’s hat on in the end zone. 

Sam’s pick: Cameron Brate +120 yards receiving, 1+ Touchdown, Bucs win +10200

Sam: Finally, we have the pièce de résistance: Cameron Brate +120 yards, 1+ Touchdown, and a Bucs win to top it off. If you’re reading this sentence, thank you. It means you didn’t laugh and hit the “X” button to close out the page. In fairness, I wouldn’t blame you. I know what you’re thinking: Who is Cameron Brate? Has Cameron Brate ever had more than 100 yards receiving in a game? (answer: no). Do you enjoy lighting your money on fire? Followed by, why on earth would you ever make this bet? I have five very concise reasons to make this bet. 1.) Random guys go off in the Super Bowl from time to time (I have no idea if this is true). 2.) Steve Spagnuolo, the Chiefs Defensive Coordinator, is really good at game planning for big games – he will have something up his sleeve to stop Godwin, Evans, etc. – someone else will have to catch the ball. 3.) The Chiefs gave up 140 yards to Bucs’ tight ends in their previous matchup. 4.) Brady likes a good pass catching tight end. 5.) It’s 102:1 odds!!!!