Intro by Sam
Super Bowl Sunday is upon us! Today we sail off into the sunset of the final One Last Line post for the NFL season. You know the drill – we will pick the game and provide our reasoning. As usual, we will demonstrate our lack of skill when it comes to gambling, but it will be fun for all of us. Also, check out our Proposition Competition we posted last night in case you missed it.
Finally, if you’ve followed us all season, thank you! It’s been a blast. Keep your eyes peeled for a recap of the season, and potentially some other programming along the way. Without further ado, the One Last Line curtain call…
The Kansas City Chiefs-3.5 vs. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sam: How do you pick a game like this? The Bucs have never looked dominant this season. Despite having Tom Brady at the helm of the ship, the Bucs would never have made it this far without their defense. Todd Bowles has been excellent and delivered the right punches at the right time this postseason. On the other side of the field, you have Mahomes and co. It feels like they’ve shown flaws this year. This season they didn’t perform nearly as well as last year against the spread, making their wins feel less dominant. In addition, they’re missing a few big bodies upfront. Nevertheless, Mahomes looks and feels invincible. He always makes a play and they never feel out of the game. He’s got that Steph Curry/Warriors-vibe where you never felt they were out of it even up 20 on them. So where does that leave us?
Yank: The more things change the more they stay the same. On the one side, we have the best QB and passing offense in the league. On the other side, we have Tom Brady. Sam’s Warriors’ comp for the Chiefs is apt. In this analogy, the Chiefs passing game is the Warriors using the three-ball to revolutionize the league. Meanwhile, the Chiefs defense, also like the Warriors, does what they need to do defensively to get Ws. This season has reminded me a lot of the second Warriors title year post KD joining up with Steph and Co. All year everyone was looking to manufacture drama to make the season more interesting, and all year the champion felt 100% inevitable. The Chiefs have lost one football game that Patrick Mahomes has started since NOVEMBER OF 2019. They have found a level offensively that has led to dominance the likes of which we have not seen in the NFL in years. I know it’s corny and played out to just match up the QBs and make your pick that way. And I know Tom Brady is the goat, yadda, yadda, yadda…But, on one side, we have the best player in the league, and on the other side, we have a 43-year-old guy who threw three picks last week.
Sam: To Yank’s point, Mahomes does feel like the ultimate cheat code. It seems like he’s impervious to pressure. Dan Pizzuta of Sharp Football Analysis uncovered that, “Mahomes has been pressured 19 times during the playoffs, according to Sports Info Solutions,” and “on those dropbacks, he has completed 61.1% of his passes for 8.4 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, no interceptions, 7.4 Expected Points Added, and a 52.9% positive play rate.” Not only that but during his 2019 campaign, Mahomes had a positive EPA under pressure (most quarterbacks are -20 and under). With that in mind, I feel like the Bucs defense is spectacular too and I don’t know if all pressures are created equal. For instance, do pressures have an exponentially larger impact the more you face in a game? I don’t know that there is an answer to the question, but I’m going to operate under the assumption that they do. The Chiefs haven’t played a defense this good in weeks, and with a banged-up offensive line, I think they have a shot to make it harder on Mahomes. Last year’s Super Bowl is a good comp. The 49ers were able to get Mahomes off his game for a while, but couldn’t contain him the whole game. If Garoppolo hadn’t become a shell and Sanders hadn’t dropped that deep bomb, we might be looking at the Super Bowl-less Chiefs.
Yank: It is a solid point about the defenses; we have seen it matter before. My New York Football Giants walked into the Super Bowl with an A+ pass rush against Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and the best offense the world had ever seen at the time in 2007 and left with the victory. The Chiefs missing both OTs is a huge deal. The Bucs DL with Jason Pierre Paul, Shaq Barrett, and Ndamukong Suh is formidable. The Bucs defense as a whole has been in the top 3 in defensive DVOA all year long. From my perspective, that will have a key effect on game flow: Kansas City knows they can’t run the ball on this team and won’t really try. That means 80+% of the time the ball will be in 15s hands and success or failure will rely on his arm, and the feet of Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and their other speedsters. He will have to get the ball out quickly. Tampa may even try to run the ball on the other side and chew the clock. At the end of the day you have to ask yourself, does that scenario sound like it will end in a Chiefs W? Personally, I am willing to take my chances. Earlier this year Sam and I discussed a piece on 538 that interrogated: are the Chiefs the luckiest team in football? The idea was that their win totals are above the general expectation based on their point differential. The general idea is if you play in a lot of close games, on average you leave yourself vulnerable to losses. This is the hottest take I’ve dispensed on this blog all year, but I think pulling out all those close games is a skill and this Chiefs team is not average. Sure they almost lost last year‘s Super Bowl, they almost lost to the Browns or the Falcons/Raiders/pick your favorite close game from the regular season. They won all of those games. It’s not luck for them like it would be for a normal team because when they are down in a close game and need a big drive they get to hand the ball to Patrick Mahomes, which is a luxury the average team does not have. They will win this game too, whether by an inch or a mile, and I will rest easy backing them to do so.
Sam: While I agree with Yank that there doesn’t appear to be much luck involved in all of those wins, but a close game is the recipe I need for the Bucs to win. We all fell in love with Mahomes and the Chiefs offense because of their predilection for blowing teams out of the water, but as I covered above and as Yank to some degree points out, a lot of their games have been close this year. If the Bucs do limit Mahomes, it’ll be up to the Kansas City defense to stop Brady and his treasure trove of weapons. At first glance, the Chiefs defense doesn’t look like it has a lot going for it. In that same 538 piece Yank mentioned, the author outlines how the Chiefs essentially run a ball-control offense, presumably to keep their defense off of the field. But Steve Spagnuolo has a track record of excellent game-planning in breadwinning time. They played an excellent game against the Bills giving up an unfortunate TD at the beginning of the game because of a fumble at the 3 but otherwise forcing the Bills to settle for field goals until the game was practically over. Additionally, Spagnuolo was the Defensive Coordinator of the Giants when they knocked off Brady in Super Bowl XLII. In other words, don’t underestimate the impact of both defenses in this game. That’s why I will be taking the Under in this one. And finally, for my pick, I will be taking the Bucs ML. I ultimately think that the Bucs defense is playing outstanding right now and that they will be able to challenge Mahomes enough. I think that Brady will summon up an old-school Brady performance and although Mahomes is in line for the throne, Brady wears the crown of game-winning drives. We should be in for a good one.
Final Picks
Yank: $7.40 on Mahomes to throw for O300.5 yards and KC to win(+135), $10 on Mahomes O28.5 completions(+100)
Sam: $5.00 on the the Buccaneers ML(+140) and $10.00 on Chiefs/Bucs Under 56(-115)
One Last Line 