MLB Opening Day Lightning Round: The Boys Are Back for One Last Line!

Introduction – Sam

Oh yeah, you read that right. The boys are back and looking for a little gambling action. What better place to start than with a couple of baseball bets to kick off Opening Day? We won’t be following the 3C’s format of our NFL picks but wanted to layout a few preseason bets, futures, and season-long strategies that we came up with for this MLB season. As always, join us at your own peril but follow us and our picks all season to enjoy our half-baked takes, near misses, and, dare I say, occasional victories.

Category 1 – We Like Big Bunts

The Picks: Giancarlo Stanton U37.5 HRs and Aaron Judge U34.5 HRs

Yank: We learned a lot during football season, including a lesson we should have already known. It turns out the casinos… they’re way smarter than us. We know nothing about baseball, but we do know there are a lot of Yankees fans. At first glance, these two HR totals look pretty low considering these guys have arms that are bigger than my torso. But I’m guessing that’s what a bunch of Yank and Sam’s in the Bronx think when they see these numbers too. The casinos win when guys like us lose; let’s try being on their side for a change. 

Sam: As a baseball novice, I was immediately out on this bet. I said there is no way that those guys don’t hit those totals. They’re the Bronx Bombers for crying out loud. But Yank followed up his idea with a little evidence: 

There are two takeaways from this: 1. If they’re healthy, they’re both going to make a run at 50+ HRs. 2. They don’t have a track record of staying healthy. Even though it’s arguably the worst type of bet to root for (who doesn’t want to see 100 bombs from two players on the same team?), it feels like a no-brainer.

Category 2 – All We Do is Twin

The Picks: Twins More Wins Than White Sox and the Twins to win the AL Central

Sam: As a Minnesotan by family, it’s never a good idea to bet on Minnesota sports teams. So if I were you, I would just keep on scrolling and skip this section. But if you’re reading this, it’s too late – lock in the Twins for their third straight division championship. FiveThirtyEight has them at almost 50% to win the division this year and at 90 wins on the season. Furthermore, they’re right behind the Mets in team rating, who you’d think already won the World Series with the way they’re being talking about. And finally, with Cleveland taking a step back and the White Sox dealing with some injuries, it’s only the classic Minnesotan skepticism that is keeping them from being all-in this season. 

Yank: You all know by now that anytime Sam and I can get on board with the nerds we’re jumping in with two feet. Our friends at FiveThirtyEight are not alone, the big brains behind the PECOTA projection system and FanGraphs projections also forecast the Twins to take the division. Meanwhile, everywhere you look the White Sox are favored to win the division by sportsbooks. All this White Sox love even though they just lost a middle-of-the-order hitter to a torn pec, and their manager hasn’t been in a dugout since 2011. Seems like some big city public bias to me. Shouldn’t take a fancy algorithm to figure out where I’m laying my money.

Category 3 – Up and In-frastucture

The Picks: Rays O85.5 wins and Indians O81.5 wins

Yank: Every year we kick ourselves for not betting on the Spurs. Harmony between front office decision-making and top-flight coaching will never be overrated. The Rays have been proving the doubters wrong for years at this point. This year everyone’s concern is that they took a step back on the starting pitching front. Meanwhile, this is the team with unquestionably the best pitching development infrastructure in the MLB. This year is going to be incredibly tough on pitchers after the long break and short-season a year ago. The Rays chose to bet on veteran depth to eat innings as opposed to a few higher ceiling stalwarts. I’m betting they know what they are doing…again. 

Sam: Yank hit this one on the head with the Spurs comp. Teams that are good with not necessarily the best talent usually have a strong infrastructure. This year’s infrastructure pick for me is the Cleveland Indians. Everybody wants to say the run is over, they traded off their stars, they haven’t reached the World Series since 2016, well blah, blah, blah. When the Spurs traded Kahwi, everyone thought it was a lost cause, and much to everyone’s surprise, they made the playoffs that season. I’m betting that most people are overreacting to what seems like a reboot and doubling down on infrastructure. I like teams that consistently show up and that attitude matters.

Category 4 – Ace in the Cole

The Season Long Play: Bet on the Yankees to cover ATS every time Gerrit Cole starts

Yank: Sometimes things really don’t need to be overthought. Nick Saban covers the spread more often than not, which is unsurprising when you think about the fact that he generally has the best players and the best coaches. Gerrit Cole is the second-best (editor’s note: found the Mets fan!) pitcher in baseball. He has arguably the best offense in the league behind him. Smash bet button. Profit. That’s the strategy. 

Sam: It’s not worth going into the weeds on this one. When Cole pitches, the other team doesn’t score. The Yankees score… a lot. That sounds like a pretty good recipe to me. Yank and I played around with this strategy during the shortened season and it didn’t play out too badly for us (certainly a lot better than our NFL picks for that matter). The name of this game is that it’s an aggregate strategy. Think of it like various installments of a futures bet throughout the season. That means when you see Cole in the lineup, bet the Yankees. Don’t get scared off and certainly don’t leave early cause you’re waiting for the other shoe to drop. Trust in Cole.

Spring has finally sprung, and hope springs eternal for us here at One Last Line. You’ll find us back here soon as we come upon The Masters, the NFL draft, the NBA playoffs, and anything else we can’t summon the willpower to stay away from. At some point we will recap what we learned from last football season to prepare for the new season as well. Should be fun, thanks for following along, let’s go win some money.