Sam Introduction: Did you really think that One Last Line would be absent for the NBA Play-In Tournament? I guess I wouldn’t blame you if you thought that we’d called it quits after all of the losses we’ve sustained over the last year, but no. We’re back and we’re ready to put another down payment on the latest hotel project in Vegas.
As the resident NBA-head of OLL, I will take the lead on these games. Last season I had a pretty good read on the League, cashing in the majority of my season futures (including Lakers +300 to win it all at the beginning of the season) and cashing in a few notable bets during the bubble, including a $10 ML bet on the Nuggets for Game 7 against the Clippers. Let’s see if I have my finger on the pulse this season…
The Charlotte Hornets @ The Indiana Pacers-3
Game 1 (East 9/10): Indiana vs. Charlotte; 6:30 ET, TNT
Sam: The Hornets have been one of the darling teams of the league this season. LaMelo came out hot, handing out dimes like the FED. Gordon Hayward was back and on-point (until he was out again because of injury, of course). Miles Bridges will poster anybody who breathes oxygen, and Scary Terry, the guy that tried to go toe-to-toe with LeBron in a Game 7 (LOL, remember that? Props for the confidence though), has had a bit of a resurgence. It doesn’t stop there, however, even the announcer has garnered the adoration of the country. And yet… this team is a little too hyped, a little too early. I’m excited about their future, but with no Hayward and a less than healthy LaMelo, I don’t think they have the juice this year. Young teams go through growing pains and while the team on the other side of the court has had the season from Hell, they’ve been there before. We’ll see who acts like it.
Yank: This whole NBA play-in tournament endeavor is a pretty simple one for me, folks. My intent is to win money. My only chance to do that is to listen to Sam, who actually knows stuff about basketball. As he points out the Hayward injury has been a killer for this team. Here is a list of teams the Hornets have beaten in the last month: the Cavs, Celtics, Pistons, and Magic. That’s it. That’s the list! Located here in the heart of basketball country I have a soft spot for my local Pacers. To be frank they have a soft spot near the basket right now without Myles Turner’s interior presence on defense. But the Cavs/Pistons/Magic they are not, they play hard and are annually among the most solid teams out there. The bet here is that the never flashy, always effective attack led by the perpetually underrated Domantas Sabonis will be too much for this depleted Charlotte team to match.
Sam: The Pacers are not the team you feel great about having your money on. This should be a no-brainer, but there are concerns about the coach, injuries galore, and what feels like a battle for the soul of this team. The Pacers have done what most mid-size market franchises struggle to do. Produce a winning, playoff-caliber basketball team year after year, despite losing star players like PG-13 and this year Victor Oladipo. It takes shrewd moves around the edges. The Pacers have made a number of those including the original trade for Dipo and Domantas Sabonis a couple of seasons ago. Last year nabbing TJ Warren, and this year getting Caris Levert. They have gone through different eras and are in a weird spot entering a new one. It’s been a bummer to see how they’ve underwhelmed this season and are struggling as much internally as they have been on the court because they have a lot of talent on the roster. And while I could go on and on about franchise building and diagnosing the Pacers ills, that last point is where I’ll return to how this factors into my pick. The Pacers have talent. Sabonis will play harder than anyone on the court on Tuesday and Levert is a certified bucket-getter (written before Levert was ruled out). With a healthy Brogdon, the Pacers have enough pieces to work the Hornets. The core pieces have been in this spot before and know what it takes to get the job done. My money’s on Sabonis and the Pacers.
The Washington Wizards @ The Boston Celtics-2
Game 2 (East 7/8): Boston vs. Washington; 9 ET, TNT
Sam: Adam Silver invented the Play-In for teams like the Wizards. Sidelined with Covid issues to start the year, the Wizards had a tough start to the year. And then boom! Just like Russ throwing down a mean poster, the Wiz explosion back into the playoffs has been exhilarating. If you’ve looked at a screen for more than 3 seconds, you’ve probably read or seen something about Russ’s performance this season. He’s yet again averaged a triple-double for the season, something no guard should even be capable of, and it also seems like his best performance yet. Russ isn’t out here playing hero ball, he’s got Beal as the go-to scorer and finding open shooters (although they need to start hitting more of those shots). He’s a one-man fast break and plays harder than anyone on the court. This is the most I’ve ever enjoyed Westbrook and I think he’s getting a great matchup in the Celtics.
Yank: I cannot emphasize enough in this blog how little you should trust my NBA takes. The closest I’ve come to watching the 2021 Boston Celtics is reading Bill Simmons’ tweets every so often. Here’s what my limited experience with those tweets and his team tells me. 1) Jayson Tatum, good at basketball. 2) Brad Stevens, still a pretty good coach? 3) Pretty much everything else has gone wrong this year, all the supporting players have been garbage; this team has a Hornets-like list of unimpressive wins over the past month. The team that has choked their way into the play-in tourney feels primed to choke their way out of the playoffs completely. And yet…looking at some gambling data while the public seems to agree with Sam (60+% of tickets on the Wizards), the line has moved up from Celtics-1/1.5 to Celtics-2. Apparently, Bradley Beal, the best player on the court in this series if he plays, has a hamstring injury he’s been trying to play through. All this gives me pause. At the end of the day, I think we have to treat these “win and in” games like game seven of a normal playoff series. Sam has convinced me that this Wizards team is hot and this Celtics team will wilt under the spotlight. I’m going to close my eyes, hold my nose, and put my money on Scott Brooks and Russell Westbrook.
The San Antonio Spurs @ The Memphis Grizzlies-4
Game 3 (West 9/10): Memphis vs. San Antonio; 7:30 ET, ESPN
Sam: Ahh, now we’re talking. My hometown Memphis versus our sworn enemies from Texas. Of course, this matchup doesn’t have quite the same punch that it used to, but that doesn’t preclude me from betting on my Grizz to knock out the Spurs in this one. Despite being one of the youngest teams in the League, the Grizz have the swagger and competitiveness of a veteran-savvy team. They will play hard led by notorious grinders, Dillon Brooks and big man Jonas Valančiūnas , and they will play fast led by the speedy Ja Morant. This hard-to-deliver combo gives them an edge over the one-track-minded Spurs. The Spurs have had a solid season, but have struggled to carve out their new identity. They bought out LeMarcus Aldridge mid-way through the season, but have hung on to fiery vet, Demar DeRozan. Meanwhile, the new era includes exciting young players like Keldon Johnson, Lonnie Walker, and Dejounte Murray. This bridge between eras has resulted in the performance you’d expect, some good wins but overall a sub-.500 team. The Grizz are a bunch of competitive, hard-nosed players who aren’t afraid of anyone. Add in the fact that the Grizz have wiped the floor with the Spurs twice this season, I expect them to think like they’re the favorites and to play like it.
Yank: We’ve arrived at the game where Sam, who is a notorious, injurious, Grizzlies homer is most untrustworthy. He could (and probably should, one day) write an entire blog about this team. Here’s the angle I like for this game: these teams score a ton when they play each other; in all three games this year one team has scored 129 or more. Granted the three previous matchups were 4+ months ago, but I think the data from previous games between these two teams is meaningful. Moreover, I don’t think the Spurs defense is very good, so if they are going to hang in this game it will likely need to be a shootout. The joint will be rocking in Memphis, hopefully, the shots will be falling as well. I like this game to go over the total of 221.5.
The Golden State Warriors @ The Los Angeles Lakers-4.5
Game 4: (West 7/8): Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State; 10 ET, ESPN
Sam: You save the best for last right? Well, we’ve got an exciting one here in Lakers vs. Warriors, or should I say LeBron vs. Steph? I can’t wait to watch this one, and yet I’m not sure how close it will actually be. The Lakers *just* got everyone back in time for a tune-up game and the Warriors have been playing meaningful basketball for weeks. Steph has been carrying the load and been doing crazy things night in and night out. But that type of load takes a toll and they’re about to matchup a team with the size AND skill to put the hurting on Steph and the Warriors. We’re only a few months removed from LeBron and AD holding up the Larry O’Brien Trophy in Orlando because of their unique size and talent. That size and talent hurts most teams, but will certainly hit a big weak spot for the warriors. Currently, Warriors centers include Kevon Looney and Jordan Bell. Yes, you read that right. Should the Warriors try to go small with Draymond at the 5, the Lakers can go bigER or small while remaining BIG. Steph is awesome and has had an incredible season, but fear of him can’t outweigh the advantages that the Lakers will have going into this one.
Yank: This one is the best because it is the most straightforward. Through a confluence of circumstances, we get the chance to bet on the Lakers in a winner take all playoff game in mid-May. Lebron James is on this team. Read it again to really internalize it: Lebron James in a must-win game. My most likely regret after this one is going to be not betting more on the Lakers.
Sam’s Picks
$5.00 on the Pacers-3 (-110)
$5.00 on the Wizards ML (EVEN)
$2.00 on Westbrook O25 point and Wizards win (+290)
$5.00 on the Grizzlies/Spurs O222 (-110)
$5.00 on the Grizzlies/Lakers ML parlay (+138)
$10.00 on the Lakers ML (-200)
Yank’s Picks
$3.50 on a Pacers/Wizards ML parlay (+254)
$3 on a Pacers/Lakers ML parlay (+162)
$5 on a Grizzlies/Lakers ML parlay (+143)
$5.75 on the Grizzlies/Spurs O221.5
15.00 on the Lakers ML (-186)
One Last Line 