Intro by Sam
All in all, a good week for the boys (at least compared to last season)! As the loser of the Collaboration this week, I’m feeling a bit banged up, so I’m going to start with the negatives in the Recap before moving to the positives. We’re on the right track, so we’ll need to refine our selections a bit and we’ll be printing our own money in no time. Let’s dive in.
The Recap
Hear me out for one minute – on Sunday, underdogs covered in 11 of the 14 games played. Not only that, 8 of those 11 underdogs won outright! We were all over the underdog strategy with 5 of our 6 picks on underdogs. And yet, I somehow managed to tie my pride to 2 out of the 3 underdogs who didn’t cover. I mean… you can’t make this shit up. Both the Bears in our Confrontation matchup and the Colts in my Isolation pick really let me down to the Rams and Seahawks respectively. Yank’s Isolation pick also fell short with the Lions ML, despite covering the spread at +8.5.
On the bright side, Yank and I sniffed out the Saints ML against the Packers in our first Collaboration of the year. I don’t know that we were expecting a Saints TKO, but we’ll take a never-a-doubter when we can get it. Strategy 1 really played well with that matchup, when the line moved suddenly in the direction of the Saints for seemingly no reason. That’ll be a big cue for us this season. According to my tracker, when the line shifted towards an underdog, those underdogs covered 4-1, with 3 of those teams winning outright. Somebody knows something, and we know to bet with them. On to Week 2!
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
Week 2 Picks
The Collaboration (1-0):
The San Francisco 49ers @ The Philadelphia Eagles ML (+160)
Yank: You will likely see a lot of picks like this from us in this space over the coming weeks. This feels like a 50-50 matchup and the odds are decidedly not 50-50. Why should the 49ers, with no cornerbacks, be a big favorite coming East to play in another raucous stadium where the fans will be back for the first time in 2 years? The Eagles, to be fair, are probably getting a little too much shine for beating up on the lowly Falcons, but they proved they can score and defend. They have a great shot to win this game and I’m happy to back them at plus money.
Sam: We heard during the offseason how the 49ers when healthy will return to their Super Bowl level play. Meanwhile, we heard the Eagles would be bad with Mr. Rock Paper Scissors himself, Nick Sirianni, at the helm. What we didn’t anticipate is that the Eagles can actually win battles in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and once again, the 49ers are injured. So as Yank pointed out, why are the 49ers favored on the road going west to east? Because the Eagles are supposed to be bad and the 49ers are supposed to be bad. We’re here to tell you that things can change in a year, let alone two. Banking on the 49ers being a Super Bowl team and the Eagles being hot garbage once again requires a lot of faith in past performance. We’re banking on the present/future being slightly different than what the majority thinks it will be.
Yank’s Play: $4.00 on the Eagles (+145)
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Eagles (+135)
The Confrontation (Yank 0-1; Sam 0-1):
The Tennessee Titans @ The Seattle Seahawks-6 (-110)
Sam: This line originally started out at -5.5 for the Seahawks and has climbed as high as -6.5 since I grabbed it at -6. This reflects my opinion from seeing the original line: the Seahawks are undervalued. I know that everyone is down on the Titans and high on the Seahawks, which I’m sure Yank will touch on, but the Seahawks have Russell Wilson and they’re at home. I went against them last week, not so much because of what they have to offer, but what I thought the Colts had to offer. The Colts let me down and the Seahawks do what they do during the first half of the season – beat teams down. While I’m not expecting the Titans to shit the bed as they did against the Cardinals last week, I think getting the Seahawks less than a touchdown at home is a value play.
Yank: This is a classic stock up (Seahawks) versus stock down (Titans) matchup. People love to overreact to week 1 and have decided the Titans offense is now terrible. Meanwhile, they are still the betting favorite to win the AFC South. Admittedly, on the road in Seattle is a tough place to need to figure yourself out, but this team is still talented, led by a veteran QB, and Mike Vrabel will light a fire under them even if it requires cutting off one of his own limbs. Six points is a lot in what feels like it will be a one-score game. I’ll roll with the Titans to keep it close.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Titans+6 (-115)
Sam’s Play: $5.50 on the Seahawks-6 (-110)
The Isolation (Yank 0-1; Sam 0-1):
Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts Moneyline (+160)
Yank: This one is admittedly a shot in the dark. My affinity for McVay and the Rams is well known on this blog. That being said they are riding a little high after taking their sweet time to put away the Bears last week. Meanwhile, everyone hates the Colts because they were blown out by the Seahawks at home. So I ask you, reader, why is this line so low? Shouldn’t it be more like Rams by 4.5-6? The fact that it isn’t, makes me like the Colts, who are still at home and have a strong running game. This feels like a game where last year we would have bet the Rams and would have been shocked to lose. I am happy to take a shot going against public morons like us. David freaking Montgomery looked like Walter Payton against this Rams team last week. There’s definitely a world where Jonathan Taylor runs wild and the Rams go down in a close one.
Yank’s Play: $4.00 on the Colts (+160)
The Cincinnati Bengals ML @ the Chicago Bears (+110)
Sam: In the season Introduction and this posts’ Recap, we outlined how the line moves when Sharps place wagers. Well, almost no line has moved more than the line in the Bears vs. Bengals matchup. The Bengals opened as 4.5 underdogs and it has moved all the way down to 2 and even 1.5 in some cases. This means the Sharps like the Bengals (and maybe dislike the Bears) and I want to be on their side. Outside of the Sharps liking this one, it makes sense from a football perspective. After watching the Bengals-Vikings game in person, you could see the talent on the Bengals roster. The Vikings did just about everything to help the Bengals win, but the defensive line wreaked havoc all game long and Burrow found playmakers at every level of the field. Last week, I bet on the Bears to cover against the Rams, and while they ultimately hung in their longer than most expected, it wasn’t because of their defense. The Bengals defense can cause some trouble for the Bears shoddy O-line and Burrow + Company can play spoiler to the Bears home-opener.
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Bengals +110
The Bank-Week 2
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $118.61 | $96.75 |
| Risk: | $13.00 | $15.50 |
| Potential Earnings: | $16.55 | $18.00 |
| Record: | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 1-0 | 0-2 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 