Intro by Yank
Can you believe it is already week 3? It will be October in less than a week! Where has the time gone? After two games everyone feels like they understand everything they need to know about all 32 NFL teams. A theme for us for this week, unsurprisingly, is that everyone’s instant reactions and hot takes are probably half-baked.
The Recap
Before we get into this week, we’ve got to quickly recap last week. We both were on the Eagles to win for The Collaboration and they flew all the way to…11 total points, what a disaster. We also took a pair of underdogs in The Isolation. Sam’s Bengals looked overmatched in Chicago, while my strategy to go against the Rams after being their number one Stan on this blog predictably backfired. Watching Jacob Eason trot onto the field after Carson Wentz somehow sprains both ankles to loft up a slow-pitch softball on his first career pass with your money on the line is not an experience I would recommend. Finally, the Titans came through for me against Sam’s Seahawks in The Confrontation, where 17-0 is still in play for me. Despite moderate early returns, the teams we have backed have largely been confidence-inspiring. Underdogs have stayed live going 21-12 ATS so far through two weeks and 14-19 outright. We’re looking to keep the train rolling this week.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
Week 3 Picks
The Collaboration (1-1):
The New Orleans Saints ML @ The New England Patriots (+130)
Sam: This matchup became the clear favorite for us after some consideration. It basically has everything we’re looking for in a bet. On the one hand, we have a perfect case of stock up/stock down. The Saints are two weeks away from stomping the Packers – looking dominant on defense and scoring on basically every pass play, but they lost in miserable fashion to the Panthers last week. On the other side, the Patriots had a close loss to the Dolphins followed by a big win against the Jets. But let’s investigate the Pats a little closer. They only managed to score 16 points in a home opener with a new QB and the fans undoubtedly behind them. Then the following week they scored 25 points against the Jets. A slightly more impressive number but they were gifted 4 (I repeat 4!) interceptions. You mean to tell me you couldn’t score more than 25 points after getting 4 turnovers and then having the Jets offense hand the ball off on every play? People love Mac Jones and the Pats this year, but I’m not sold.
Yank: The great news is the smart people seem to agree with Sam and me as well. At the time of writing 60% of the bets in this matchup are on the Pats, which validates our theory that most people are focused on the stinkbomb the Saints laid last week where they only had 6 first downs. However, if the smart money agreed, this line would be moving toward the Pats, but the Saints have steadfastly stayed only 3 point underdogs since Sunday. Go where your nose takes you my friends; this line smells fishy and the game feels like a toss-up for all the good reasons Sam mentioned. Sounds like a great opportunity to grab the Saints at plus odds.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Saints (+130)
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Saints (+125)
The Confrontation (Yank 2-0; Sam 0-2):
The Miami Dolphins @ The Las Vegas Raiders-4 (-110)
Yank: I’ve liked this game all week for reasons that are hard to explain. Should I like “Jacoby Brisset thrust into a starting role”? No. Should I like the team going against a red-hot Raiders offense that looks impossible to stop? No way. Should I like the team going against the team that just beat two of the absolute best teams in the league? Of course not. But we are talking about the RAIDERS. Do we really believe in Derek Carr? Jon Gruden? I just don’t ok, I’m sorry, I don’t. Do you know who I do believe in? Brian Flores, who has been constructing these Dolphins with rubber cement and scotch tape for years now. This is a huge letdown spot for the Raiders, and the Dolphins dont give an inch. I like Miami to win outright. I’ll happily take the points in what I assume will be a massively weird game.
Sam: Yank has been pushing this matchup all week and he almost had me. This is a massive let-down spot for the Raiders, there are all of these “are the Raiders for real?” pieces and you get the feeling the Gruden is going to Gruden and Carr is going to Carr. And yet, here I am, on the side of the Raiders. Why you ask? Two reasons: I do think the Raiders are forreal. Multiple models, including FiveThirtyEight and The Athletic, that has the Raiders favored by even more than the Spread. Second, this line opened two weeks ago at Raiders -1. I saw it then and wanted to jump on it then. Nevertheless, the line has moved 2.5 to 3 points in favor of the Raiders. We’re not sure if thats the Sharps or accounting for the QB change, but a line moving that much indicates to me that it’s moving for a reason.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Dolphins+4.5 (-115)
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Raiders-4 (-110)
The Isolation (Yank 0-2; Sam 0-2):
The Los Angeles Chargers+7 @ The Kansas City Chiefs (-115)
Sam: This is probably the bet I like the least, which makes it my smartest bet of the week. Last year, Yank was adamant that betting on the Chiefs to cover was the play because they were so good they had to cover most of the time. Well, the Chiefs finished the season 8-11 ATS. This performance ATS really brought around our investigation into the spread and played a role in our strategy to pick more underdogs this year. Thus, I am taking the Chargers. Last year I would rarely bet on a team against the Chiefs, but this game makes sense to me that it will be close. First of all, it’s a division game. We’ve covered that; familiarity is super important. Second, the Chiefs don’t look like the world-beaters we thought they would. Third, the Chargers have a new coach, who seems to know what he’s talking about. This week he said, “you don’t need to run to set up the pass.” We like that guy. Fourth, the Chiefs defense has been porous at best. And finally, we got crushed last year week after week trying to find two teaser teams. Teasing the Chiefs would feel like a no-brainer, so I’m hoping the Chargers crush the dreams of those teaser-heads out there.
Sam’s Play: $5.75 on the Chargers+7 (-115)
The Chicago Bears ML @ The Cleveland Browns (+275)
Yank: Sam provides a great lead-in for me and this pick, which is another potential tease killer. The Browns have looked strong through two weeks, while the Bears eventually got blown out on national TV. Justin Fields is forced into his first start due to an Andy Dalton injury. These feel like reasons guys like Sam and I would talk ourselves into teasing the Browns. Even though we know not to trust the Browns and we know they love nothing more than taking a dump all over their own fans at home, we’d make the arguments. Fields isn’t ready. Nagy stinks. Stefanski is good. We don’t trust them to cover but we could throw them in a teaser, get Browns-1, they’ll definitely win for us. If gambling was that easy my friends, I’d be too busy counting my money to write this blog. At least one of these big favorites goes down every week. This matchup reminds me of Jalen Hurts first start last year on the road in the super dome. It’s hard to prepare for a guy you’ve never seen play. The Bears run game might be sneaky good. Their run defense is flat-out good and counters the Browns offensive strength. You can already envision a world where Fields comes out on fire and the Browns spend all day running into a brick wall. So can Browns fans.
Yank’s Play: $4.00 on the Bears (+275)
The Bank-Week 3
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $104.96 | $81.25 |
| Risk: | $14.00 | $15.75 |
| Potential Earnings: | $21.75 | $16.25 |
| Record: | 3-3 | 1-5 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 2-0 | 0-3 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 