Intro by Sam
Week 7 is upon us! This season is really flying by. We’re really feeling our strategies right now and this week will be quite the test for us. But first, let’s look back at last week.
The Recap
Where else do we begin other than with the Collaboration? Your boy finally did it. No asterisks or qualifications, a straight-up win for Sam in the head-to-head matchup. While I can’t say my victory wasn’t on a razor’s edge margin, Dak, CeeDee Lamb, and the Cowboys brought me my first win against Yank’s Patriots.
In the Collaboration, the strategies are working well. We’re now 4-2 on the season with another win in Week 6. Yank and I sniffed out the Ravens to beat the Chargers by 2.5 and they sure did. In retrospect, we should have known that the Ravens would run right through a defense designed specifically to let teams run on them, but we’ll take a never-a-doubter any time we can get it. We pointed out that the money was all over the chargers and the line was barely moving. This remains a focal point of ours this season.
In the Isolation, I lucked out just as I did in the Confrontation. The Vikings should have put the Panthers away in the 1st half and yet, as they always do, they had to make it interesting. I would’ve covered ATS, but I went with the safe play of taking the ML-130. Once again, the line moved drastically towards the Vikings – keep your eye out for that this week. Yank on the other hand didn’t get so lucky. He happened to be on the other side of the never-a-doubter with the Lions tucking their tails between the legs against the fearsome Bengals. So much for crying coaches, huh? Yank did point out afterward the outcome that he liked that matchup all week, which is a sign that he should never bet it. If he liked it, so did a lot of people and that’s just not how gambling works.
To Week 7!
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
Week 7 Picks
The Collaboration (4-2):
The Atlanta Falcons-2.5 @ the Miami Dolphins (-110)
Yank: The boys are back and they are looking for trouble. We are starting it off this week with undoubtedly the worst game on the slate. Is this game in London? Maybe spiritually at least. We are focused on this unwatchable contest because of a new strategy, with a proven track record. The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a bye week last week. Road favorites coming off of a bye week are 68-41-2 over the last 20 seasons. This is actually another potential edge that we liked last year, but we were inconsistent in applying it. This year we are going to the 62%-winning-percentage-ATS well, and we are going to it hard. I don’t really like anything about the Falcons, but we are just following the money to see where it goes.
Sam: In addition to everything that Yank has covered, the line has moved a whole 5 points since the look-ahead lines opened last week. This line originally opened Dolphins-2.5. It’s now anywhere from Falcons-2 to -2.5. This is a critical matchup to test the strength of our strategies. Have we been lucky or are we on to something? Like Yank, I’d normally have no interest in a game like this, but if we learned anything from last year, what we normally like doesn’t work. And if it doesn’t work, you have to try something else. From what I can tell, there are no significant injuries on the Dolphins roster that would indicate that this line should move that much. Once again, I smell sharp money and models that don’t like whats going on in Miami. The Falcons have rested, had a chance to review everything that has gone wrong with their team the last few weeks, and are going up against a team returning from London and a heartbreaker. Falcons make some sense football-wise, but it’s the movement that puts me over the top.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Falcons-2.5 (-110)
Sam’s Play: $5.50 on the Falcons (-110)
The Confrontation (Yank 4-1-1*; Sam 1-4-1*):
The Cincinnati Bengals @ the Baltimore Ravens-6.5 (-110)
Sam: I will be returning to the Ravens well again this week. The nourishing, rushing waters of the 2015 Pro-Bowl dream backfield has me ready for another taste (yes, I too have a well metaphor). The Ravens are favored by almost a touchdown against a division opponent – bad for me. That being said, the Ravens are very good. Lamar is on one right now and there’s no reason to think this Bengals team will slow him down. Are the Bengals not bad? Sure. A 4-2 record would seem to indicate that. Are the Bengals good? That we don’t know. I believe I made this point in Week 5 when we had the Bengals in the Confrontation against the Packers. Here is a list of teams the Bengals have beaten: Vikings, Steelers, Jaguars, and Lions. The Vikings might be the best of the bunch and that was a weird Week 1 game. So, I’ll ask again: Are we sure the Bengals are good? And specifically good enough to stay within reach of a Ravens team that is playing with fire? The Bengals have a good defense and can attack the run, so that does pose a threat, but that Ravens defense will live in Joey B’s helmet all game and probably make him want to yell even with a broken throat.
Yank: This matchup will be an interesting test to determine if the Bengals are for real, as Sam points out. Their opponents have not been the most staunch, but they have largely taken care of business. On the flip side, this week is a big letdown spot for the Ravens after blowing out your favorite TV analyst’s favorite AFC team, the Chargers. The logic here is pretty straightforward. I think the Bengals are solid if unspectacular. I think the Ravens are good, but not great. For a division matchup two teams like that should likely go 1-1 against one another. If the Bengals are going to get them once, I like their chances to do it today.
Yank’s Play: $2.47 on the Bengals+7(-124) and $3.00 on the Bengals ML (+234)
Sam’s Play: $5.25 on the Ravens-6.5 (-105)
The Isolation (Yank 2-4; Sam 3-3):
The Washington Football Team+8 @ the Green Bay Packers (-110)
Sam: Wow wow wow. I hate this bet. Why did I do this again? Hold on while I hurl… I mentioned earlier in the Collaboration that it would be a good test of the strategies. Well, that applies here and more. Almost nothing about this game makes me want to bet on the Football Team. They’re held back by a defensive-minded head coach and have an exciting QB who probably is playing above his weight class. This week they get Aaron Rodgers and the 5-1 Packers. Gulp. Nevertheless, there are reasons to find the Football Team interesting. When you factor in the home field bounce, the Packers are only 5 points better than the Football Team. Does that strike you as odd? The 5-1 Packers against the 2-4 Football Team. *scratches his chin* Very interesting. Furthermore, this line fell from Packers -9 to -7.5 earlier this week, before moving back up to -8. I grabbed it there. Finally, this line opened at Packers -7 on the early lines last week. It almost made its way back there, which makes me think the public might have overreacted to the Chiefs win against the Football Team even though WFT could’ve held that game a lot tighter. This play could look really silly Sunday afternoon, but the Packers haven’t been as dominant in years past and are always prime candidates for a close/let down game. I’m hoping this is the week. Because this strategy is so new for me, I couldn’t quite fully commit. I put half of my bet on the Football Team ML and half on the spread. Let’s hope I’m too risk-averse and this pays off in a big way.
Sam’s Play: $3.30 on the Football Team+8 (-110) and $3.00 on the Football Team ML (+305)
The New York Jets+7 @ the New England Patriots
Yank: I am once again asking you to consider the New York Football Jets as my isolation pick. Considering this matchup happened a few short weeks ago and the Patriots won 25-6, what gives? A couple of key facts about the Patriots: 1) They play up/down to their opponents (see: Cowboys last week vs Texans two weeks ago) 2) Bill Belichick does not trust Mac Jones and therefore they are unlikely to score big on anyone 3) They might actually be bad? The argument here is essentially a rinse repeat of my Bengals logic. These teams are both medium to bad instead of good, but they are on similar levels. They should go 1-1 against each other in division play. For me to be right about that, the Jets need to win this game. Moreover, it’s a letdown spot for the Pats after the big Cowboys game last week, even though they didn’t win it was an emotional OT game. They are also a team the gambling public loves now, everyone you know likely has the Pats in a tease. That’s the kind of team I like to go against. J E T S Jets baby.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Jets+7(-110)
The Bank-Week 7
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $131.10 | $93.80 |
| Risk: | $15.47 | $17.05 |
| Potential Earnings: | $18.12 | $22.15 |
| Record: | 11-7 | 8-10-1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 7-1 | 4-7-1 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 