Intro by Yank
Happy Halloween! I hope you’re as excited as me for creepy costumes and spine-chilling announcer puns. Freaky Football-day! (Just you wait…) As for us past present and future, all look somewhat scary as well. Can my ghoulish streak in The Confrontation continue? Will Sam make a blood sacrifice to turn his run of bad luck? Let’s see what we’ve got boiling and bubbling in the picks cauldron for you this week.
The Recap
Before we get to witchy Week 8, let’s run down our (unfortunately rancid) results from week 7. Our first mistake was backing the Falcons in The Collaboration. In predictable fashion the Falcons looked to be in control for the entire game, only to blow a huge lead late in the fourth quarter. They ended up coming back to win by 2, sinking our bet on them to cover 2.5 (this is actually the second time I’ve lost a favorite-2.5 bet on this blog because they won by two). Nevertheless, even though our luck predictably was awful, our logic was sound and we will return to road favorites coming off byes in future blogs.
In The Isolation, I locked in on the New York Jets as a team that was underrated. Turns out they were properly rated as “terrible” as the Pats dropped a fifty burger on them. Not much more needs to be said. Sam liked the Washington Football Team taking on the Packers based on The Strategies, which have come through for us time and again this year. Unfortunately, the Football Team could not come through in the red zone even with several opportunities sinking their chances.
Finally, in The Confrontation, we held a contest on the aptitude of the Cincinnati Bengals. Sam thought they might be pretenders, I thought they might be for real. Joe Burrow and Ja’marr Chase looked fearsome as the Bengals ripped the Ravens limb from limb, which frankly nobody expected. That victory for me was the lone bright spot for either of us last week. Let’s hope it’s a good omen that dark and devilish are the themes of the week as we consider Week 8.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
Week 8 Picks
The Collaboration (4-3):
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ The New Orleans Saints ML
Sam: Last week was pretty miserable for me. It was my 2nd 0-3 week this season, which doesn’t feel great. In fact, I’m so shaken that I’ve had a difficult time identifying my picks this week. Everything in my being says to pick the Bucs. They’re on a roll, Tom Brady is the MVP this year, and he wants revenge for the regular-season games last year. If that doesn’t make you feel inspired to pick the Bucs, the Saints offense is about as scary as the classic bedsheet ghost costume. And yet, I am joining Yank’s bravery on this one and betting the Saints ML. Whether it’s the fear of repeating my turmoils from last week or spooky season, my fear wants me to return to old me reasoning and bet the Bucs. Old me lost a lot of bets. Yank will fill in the details, but there’s a lot to like about this game from the strategies perspective. Instead of letting my confusion and fear get the best of me, I’m going to unmask the ghouls and goblins (aka old Yank and I) and double down on the strategies.
Yank: The Bucs could not be riding higher coming off an otherworldly savaging of the lowly Bears. Meanwhile, the Saints have been uneven all year. So what are we doing here? The case for the Saints is simple, their highs have been HIGH. They ran the Packers off the field in Week 1. Their lows have also unquestionably been low. In this case, we are looking at a home game in a loud stadium against the defending Super Bowl champs and a division rival. I think Sean Payton will have the game plan and the motivational speech ready for this matchup; this team should come out with their hair on fire. At the time of writing, 80+% of tickets are coming in on the Bucs which underscores the public love for Tompa. The line moved slightly towards the Bucs at the beginning of the week but has somewhat moved back down settling at +4.5 or +5. Even given this garbled signal, I’m fairly confident these teams go 1-1 in division play against one another this year, and this is the Saints best chance to grab that W. Give me the Saints to perform whatever pagan ritual it takes to panic and perturb the Bucs and pull away with an ugly W.
Sam: Yank lays the groundwork for why the strategies come into play here, and I want to make an add-on to his point about the stock up vs stock down narrative. Tom Brady and the Bucs are feeling themselves and that’s more than fair. They’re kicking ass and taking names. That being said, does it seem strange to anyone that Tom Brady spent a whole quarter hanging out with two retired QBs? He’s cracking jokes, having a good time, yadda yadda. I’m not saying he wouldn’t be watching anyway, but it makes me wonder how locked in he is this week. Brady’s known for his Michael Myers approach to preparation and execution. Let’s see if he’s locked in or if they’re a little too high on themselves right now.
Yank’s Play: $4.00 on the Saints (+205)
Sam’s Play: $4.00 on the Saints (+185)
The Confrontation (Yank 5-1-1*; Sam 1-5-1*):
The Tennessee Titans @ The Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (-110)
Sam: As I mentioned already, I’m doubling down on the strategies. This is the 2nd of the strategies approach to my picks. This line has moved dramatically towards the Colts over the last week, and as far as I can tell that movement is not injury-related. It opened at Titans-1 and has moved all the way back to Colts-2.5 and even -3 in some cases. That’s strategy 1. Strategy 2 discusses taking more underdogs, but what’s implied in that statement is that you have to take teams that you normally wouldn’t. That’s the Colts for me. I was on them early this season and they turned me away with some poor performances, but they’ll probably still be a .500 team, which gives them a shot to win this one. And strategy 3 is that we get the lines early or jump on lines that are moving asap. In this case, I got the line while it was still a pick’em. And while the strategies are mostly in alignment here, I also think the Titans might not be as hot as they seem after beating the Bills and Chiefs. It’s a stock-up game for them against a division rival they’ve already beaten once this year. Yank likes to point out that it’s hard to go 2-0 against division opponents so that looks favorably for me here. Finally, when you look at some metrics, these teams might not be all that different and may even favor the Colts despite their record. According to Football Outsiders, the Colts are #15 in total DVOA and the Titans are #20 in total DVOA. Furthermore, the Colts have the #1 ranked defense in Rush DVOA and the Titans have the #22 ranked defense by DVOA. So, the Colts have a favorable defense going up against Derrick Henry and shouldn’t have too hard of a time moving the ball against the Titans defense. Let’s see if they can get it done.
Yank: Admittedly Sam’s logic to take the Colts here is extremely sound and based on facts and reason. My choice here is based on brawn and beliefs. Derrick Henry is on a heater right now unlike the world has ever seen, he is arguable better at RB than all other earthlings by an extremely wide margin. He’s unsurprisingly the brawn. The belief is very simple as well, I believe that the Colts stink. I have basically no facts to back this up. Most metrics/models see these teams as similar. This line has moved around a ton and I would not be shocked if it ultimately settled as a pick-em. I’ll leave you with this, in a pick-em game, pick me to not be the guy picking the team with Carson Wentz at QB. Backing that guy is more frightening than Halloween itself.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Titans Pk (-103)
Sam’s Play: $3.00 on the Colts Pk (-120)
The Isolation (Yank 2-5; Sam 3-4):
The New England Patriots+4.5 @ the Los Angeles Charger (+180)
Sam: Here’s the third and final strategy pick of the weekend. The Patriots opened as 6 point dogs to the Chargers, and although most of the tickets have come in on the Chargers, the line has moved towards the Patriots. This falls under the auto bet scenario. The Sharps must have found the big candy bars in the New England neighborhood to move the line 1.5 points. Once again, this is another bet I don’t feel great about but fits the strategies. The Patriots are stock up and the Chargers are stock down and coming off of the bye. That does not bode well for me. Additionally, I’ve been on record in this very blog that the Patriots might be frauds. They came dang close to knocking off the Cowboys, but that’s about the closest they have to a meaningful game. Nevertheless, the Patriots have played better and the Chargers look less dominant than we originally thought. Lastly, I noticed this quote from Bill Belichick circulating around Twitter about Justin Herbert: “I think he’s going to be one of the top QBs in the league for a long time to come.” Call me crazy, but I feel like Belichick has a penchant for praising the team’s best players only to make their lives miserable in the end. I’m hoping this means Belichick will have Herbert seeing ghosts on Halloween.
Sam’s Play: $4.00 on the Partiots ML (+180)
The Bank-Week 8
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $130.12 | $76.75 |
| Risk: | $9.00 | $11.00 |
| Potential Earnings: | $13.05 | $17.10 |
| Record: | 12-9 | 8-13-1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 8-3 | 4-10-1 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 