Intro by Sam
Woooooooooooaaaaaaaaah we’re halfway there (through the season), wooooaaaaah livin’ on a prayer (that our bets hit). Another week in the black for the both of us, so that’s the 5th week where we’ve net positive this season and the 3rd week where we both left the weekend in the black. One might almost say we’re on to something this season… let’s review what went right for us last week.
The Recap
Wow! If there was ever a week to back our strategies it was Week 8. There were 8 underdogs that covered and all 8 of them won outright. We’ve been more intentional about nabbing dogs and ML’s in particular. Our Collaboration featured the Saints of New Orleans (and our wallets) against the lackadaisical Bucs. We love dogs (at home), division rivals, and teams that might not be all that different despite the narrative. We even survived a guest appearance from Trevor Siemian, signaling that this week was truly meant to be.
Yank continues to work me over in the Confrontation. This marks my 6th loss of the year and there have only been 8 chances… If you’re starting to worry that I am suffering from something akin to Stockholm Syndrome, you’re not wrong. I can’t seem to get out of my way by backing Carson Wentz in a meaningful game, this time against the division rival Titans. Pretty much everything was going my way and yet it wasn’t enough to counter a majestically klutzy Wentz performance.
Finally, I tripled down on the dogs of the week and grabbed the Pats against the Chargers. I was a little nervous that there was too much hype behind the Pats and the Chargers were coming off of a bye and bad loss to the Ravens. Nevertheless, Bill pulled out all the stops and Mac delivered me the ML punch we like to see at OLL. Last week’s performances demand more of the same this week!
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
Week 9 Picks
The Collaboration (5-3):
The Los Angeles Chargers @ The Philadelphia Eagles ML
Yank: Folks, welcome to another week of picks brought to you by the strategies. Sam and I would not have had much of a read on this game heading into the week. Both of these teams seem to be somewhat underwhelming and unpredictable with young QBs. The Eagles are coming off a big win, the Chargers are coming off a big loss. For one reason or another, this game opened at Chargers-3, and if it had stayed there that would have seemed very reasonable. Spoiler alert: it did not stay there, even with the overwhelming amount of tickets (75+%) on the Chargers, this line has moved consistently towards the Eagles all week. That is more or less an auto bet scenario for your boys at this point. We will let the smart people be our guide. There’s also a good rationale to like a rushing team against the Staley/Fangio defense which Sam has been a proponent of in the past.
Sam: Yank hit this one on the nose. A nose that has no interest in watching what should be a stinky game between two stinky teams. While a young Justin Herbert and Brandon Staley became the darlings of the NFL over the last year and a half, they have a little more to prove before we anoint them the Coach and QB of the League. Staley has garnered a lot of praise (and some success albeit) for his defensive strategy that leans towards the analytical approach that running the ball isn’t all that impactful on creating wins. His system dares teams to run on them by defending the pass and sowing confusion in the mind of the QB. While this has its merits, it seems like a silly strategy when you play against teams that like to run the ball. For example, would you rather have Ronald Jones/Leonard Fournette with the ball or Tom Brady? I think most people would say one of the two guys that are almost as slow as Brady. But when you go against a team like the Ravens or the Patriots that are inclined to take the ball out of the QB’s hands and run it down your throats, it makes a little less sense. Teams shouldn’t run the ball because if EPA (expected points added) per play is less than passing, but if teams can average more yards per run, that EPA per run increases. Big plays are big plays. In this matchup, I actually prefer the ball in the hands of Sanders/Gainwell/Scott than I do in the hands of Hurts unless he too is running the ball all over the Chargers defense. Instead of Fly Eagles Fly this weekend, the motto is Run Eagles Run.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Eagles (+110)
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Eagles (+105)
The Confrontation (Yank 6-1-1*; Sam 1-6-1*):
The Houston Texans @ The Miami Dolphins-5.5 (-110)
Sam: When you read that this was the matchup for the Confrontation, did you throw up a little? If yes, that’s okay. We all did. When you learned (right now) that I will be picking the Texans in this one, did you think this is a cry for help? Yes, yes it is. Yank has been largely successful in the Confrontation this season because instead of trying to find an edge, he has simply asked me what games/teams I like this week. Given that we have essentially concluded that betting on teams you like is not a winning recipe, it has been a winning recipe for Yank to go against my football hot takes. Nevertheless, here I am, giving Yank a free $5 yet again. I like the Texans in this one for two reasons. First and foremost, Tyrod Taylor is back, and while you’re all confused as to why that’s a reason to like anyone Tyrod Taylor is essentially a .500 QB in the NFL. That’s not an easy thing to accomplish. I’m not saying he’s a savior, but he’s certainly a life vest you’d take when your ship is sinking. Second, the Texans are underdogs to a division rival with the same record and have been feisty at times. The Dolphins are struggling with the disappointment of a season that had you thinking they’d be closer to 7-1 than 1-7 at the beginning of the year. Being bad when you’re supposed to be good is a lot harder than being bad when you have nothing to lose. Here’s to hoping that Tyrod looks like himself and surprises the Dolphins with competent QB play,
Yank: I hate this game. I hate these teams. It is unlikely I will watch even a minute of this. The bet here for me is simple. Houston is flat-out awful. Miami has been on a cold streak but is more like, kinda bad. They have no incentive to tank because they don’t have their own first-round pick. Tua has been improving. David Culley’s corpse is a worse coach than Flores I think? I’m grasping at straws here but I don’t think the Dolphins offense will need to grasp at straws to score.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Dolphins-5.5 (-110)
Sam’s Play: $3.15 on the Texans+5.5 (-105) and $2.00 on the Texans ML (+205)
The Isolation (Yank 2-5; Sam 4-5):
The Atlanta Falcons+6 @ the New Orleans Saints (-110)
Sam: This is a strategy’s pick in so many ways. First, the Falcons are coming off of a disappointing loss to a division rival and the Saints are coming off of a super-high win against the Bucs. We love a good stock down vs. stock up play at One Last Line. Second, it’s a division game and these two teams aren’t that different. The Saints won the first one, giving the Falcons the motivation to play a little harder. Third, Yank hates this one. Hating a pick is a cue to us that it might be worth playing. The fourth and final point that isn’t really a strategy as much as it is a trend we talked about at the beginning of the year, is that the Saints might be the rollercoaster team this year. Super highs and super falls. So, I’ll be holding my arms in the air on Sunday hoping the rollercoaster peaked at its latest climb last week and will come whirling down the other side against the Falcons.
Sam’s Play: $3.30 on the Falcons+6 (-110) and $3.00 the Falcons ML (+220)
The Minnesota Vikings ML @ The Baltimore Ravens
Yank: I am going to say up front that as I was thinking about this pick, Sam, a huge Vikings fan, encouraged me to make it. That is about as big of a jinx as you will find in 2021 so follow me here at your own risk. That being said, my isolation picks this year have largely been about trying to find underdogs in the 6-7.5 point range that dumb people like us last year are looking to put in teaser bets. For this game, a teaser player would be able to get the Ravens down to minus zero aka all they have to do is win. I say dumb people like us because we played a lot of these teasers last year and guess what, we won almost none of them. That means 6-7.5 point underdogs win outright All. The. Time. This matchup seems ripe for the picking for a few reasons. #1 The Vikings looked awful last week while the Ravens are coming off a bye. #2 This is another matchup where 75+% of the tickets are on the favorite, so the public likes the Ravens. #3 I think these teams are actually pretty similar talent-wise? I know the Vikings have found ways to choke away games left and right this season but their offense skill talent is world-class and they have largely been solid against the run. I think this should be a close game, certainly closer than a 6 point spread, and I’m happy to take 2-1 or greater odds in that scenario on the dog to win outright.
Yank’s Play: $4.00 on the Vikings (+220)
The Bank-Week 9
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $142.67 | $88.35 |
| Risk: | $14.00 | $16.45 |
| Potential Earnings: | $18.65 | $21.95 |
| Record: | 15-9 | 10-15-1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 9-3 | 4-11-1 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 