Intro by Yank
It’s week 10. At this point last year, Sam and I were a combined $57 in the hole. I started last year’s Week 10 blog with “last week was bad for us, we literally could not have done any worse”. Not so fast my friends. This year we are UP a combined $25 through week 9, with more hits than misses on the board. More importantly, our misses more often than not have been close calls. The strategies are working; we’re excited to keep chipping away for another week.
The Recap
Last week was a mixed bag for your boys. Our inkling in The Collaboration that the Eagles were strategically positioned to take advantage of the Chargers terrible run defense was proven correct. Unfortunately, the birds still snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, going down on a last-second field goal and taking our money line bets with them.
Sam and I both found live six-point underdogs in the “tease killer” vein with our picks in The Isolation. My choice, the Vikings, spent long stretches of their game against the Ravens up 10-14 points. The less said about their second-half collapse that destroyed Sam’s morale and my wallet, the better. Fortunately for Sam, he correctly identified the stock down Falcons getting too many points due to recency bias against their division rival Saints who were coming off a huge win. The Falcons, against all odds, came through even after surrendering a big lead late. Even a blind bird occasionally finds a victory against Trevor Siemian.
Finally, my Neo in The Matrix-esque run atop The Collaboration continued. Last week the Dolphins took down the hapless Texans whose source code was infected by Sam’s misguided belief in Tyrod Taylor. At times this year, it feels like I am bending time and space to my will to get these victories (even though we all know it’s just luck). Unfortunately, my run is likely at an end because Agent Sam has caught on to the fact that I’ve taken the red pill and found out the truth: I can’t actually pick anything right, all I can do is go against picks he likes. There is no spoon indeed.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
Week 10 Picks
The Collaboration (5-4):
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-9.5 @ The Washington Football Team
Sam: The strategies don’t really point to a traditional underdog ML Collaboration pick for the boys this week, so we’re turning to our other strategy of finding a road favorite coming off of a bye. Even though it’s not our preferred approach, big favorites do in fact cover regularly. This time we get Tom Brady up against the pitiful Washington Football Team. The Football Team looks nothing like it did last season and Brady’s last taste of football was in a bitter loss to his nemesis the Saints. I don’t know what Tom Brady’s ATS record is after a loss, but I’d assume it’s pretty good. Thus, I’m getting on board the pirate ship with Brady and his band of rowdy marauders.
Yank: Sam has it covered here-two weeks ago we pointed out that road favorites coming off their bye week are significantly positive against the spread over the last 15 years. This presents a prime opportunity to take the Bucs, who are beat up offensively, but are poised for a get right game against one of the worst teams in the league. On the other side of the ball Taylor Heinicke should spend most of the afternoon running for his life. No reason to overthink this one.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Bucs-9.5 (-109)
Sam’s Play: $5.05 on the Bucs-9.5 (-101)
The Confrontation (Yank 7-1-1*; Sam 1-7-1*):
The Detroit Lions @ The Pittsburgh Steelers-8.5 (-110)
Yank: At first blush the logic here is simple: the Steelers under Mike Tomlin are generally awesome as underdogs and straight-up bad as favorites. They consistently let down against bad teams, and after a last-second victory on Monday Night Football they are certainly poised for a letdown spot. I can’t believe I am saying this, but the Lions have to eventually beat somebody right? This line has been hovering around 8-8.5 and has not really moved towards the Steelers at all. Maybe the smart people think the Lions have a chance? (Editor’s note: This was written before the news that Roethlisberger will miss the game came out Sunday night. The spread is now Steelers by 6 with Mason Rudolph at the helm. Time and space bend to Yanks will in The Confrontation again).
Sam: Lmao what am I doing? A couple of days after locking this bet in, I was scrolling through the lines and saw this matchup. I told myself, “ha, there’s no way I’d lay 8 points on the Steelers” and then I checked my open bets… While there’s no reason to love this pick or this matchup, that is in fact the reason to make this bet. I clearly have no idea what I’m doing in the Confrontation, so I have to change up what I’m doing. I asked Yank what bets are you considering and I picked the one I hate the most, so here we are. In any event, the Lions do suck and I’m betting that Goff will hardly be able to get a pass off today. The defense might have to pitch a shutout for this one to work, but I’ll take a stab in the dark with Najee and Ben.
Yank: Sam is laughing at himself but the joke is on him (maybe?) because I also hate this pick the more I think about it. It feels like there is a really solid chance that I am Lion to myself that Detroit has any chance in this game. They just got blown out by awful Philadelphia two weeks ago. As Sam rightly points out I’m laying money on Jared-freaking-Goff. Let’s hope all those negatives are a big old smokescreen, but I am seriously worried that my rationale is as cloying and vapid as a Turkish delight. I’m willing to back my mane man Dan Campbell, but here’s to hoping I don’t find myself starring in The Lion, The Witch and The Where’d All My Money Go?
Yank’s Play: $2.20 on the Lions+8.5 (-110) and $3.00 on the Lions ML (+310)
Sam’s Play: $4.40 on the Steelers-8 (-110)
The Isolation (Yank 2-6; Sam 6-5):
The Atlanta Falcons @ the Dallas Cowboys-8 (-110)
Sam: The signals for the strategies are mixed at best in this matchup. The line has definitely moved towards the Falcons, but at last check, the money was pretty even. Not sure if that means it’s sharp money or the books trying to get even things out. The strategy that does align is the stock up/stock down nature of these teams. The Cowboys just got torched in front of their own fans by the Broncos… Meanwhile, the Falcons are coming off of a surprising victory against their division rival Saints. But here’s the thing, the Falcons are the same team that could barely beat the Dolphins and lost to the Panthers and the Football Team. The Cowboys have been a great offense all season and had a bad game. Like the Bucs pick, my guess is that the Cowboys will be motivated to show the NFL that last week was a fluke and Matt Ryan will also try to prove his clutch performance was equally as flukey.
Sam’s Play: $5.50 on the Cowboys (-110)
The New Orleans Saints @ The Tennessee Titans-3 (-110)
Yank: Sean Payton has been my muse this year as I’ve spent the last nine weeks composing beautiful bet-winning music. The Saints are not one of the best teams in the league, but they also can beat anyone any week. Coming off a bad loss against the Falcons they will be motivated and undervalued. Meanwhile the Titans are on one of the best runs in the league, consistently pulling out victories against consensus playoff teams. Even before I saw the line for this game I thought this could be a trip up spot for Tennessee. Then the line opened at Tennessee-3 (!!), which is absurdly low based on how these teams played last week. Then the line didn’t move at all when Alvin Kamara, the Saints best offensive player, was ruled out. This line stinks to high heaven. We are supposed to believe that the Titans who just blew out the Rams would be a pick ’em against the Saints on a neutral field(which this line implies)? Alvin Kamara doesn’t affect this game at all? Last year Sam and I would have seen something like this and would have been all over the Titans…and games that seemed like obvious winners like that lost for us again and again and again. The line is low because the sharps like the Saints. When the sharps are with the Saints I’m with them too. Let’s play another symphony, Sean.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Saints ML (+130)
The Bank-Week 10
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $138.22 | $87.80 |
| Risk: | $15.20 | $14.95 |
| Potential Earnings: | $23.00 | $14.00 |
| Record: | 16-11 | 12-18-1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 10-3 | 5-12-1 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 