Intro by Sam
A down week for the boys last week, but it’s a far cry from our worst weeks last season. The strategies are at least keeping us afloat, so we’re going to keep that rolling while trying to sharpen up as we enter the home stretch.
The Recap
Welp. We were certainly just dead wrong with our Collaboration pick last week. The Bucs defense no-showed and Tom and co. sank to the bottom of the ocean. I still feel like that bet hits 4 out of 5 times, but we just happened to be in the 1 where the Bucs weren’t ready. Alas, you win some and you lose some.
I must have the curse of the Black Pearl for picking the no-show Bucs and somehow planting my flag on a Steelers offense that was forced to start Mason “the duck” Rudolph. And while Yank came out a winner this past week (and many before that) we were all losers for having any money on that game in the first place. I will say the schadenfreude in me did enjoy Yank only managing a push on his ML bet because the game ended in a tie… what a world.
Finally, in the Isolation, I’ve somehow managed to keep this whole season alive by finding the value. Last week, I saddled myself up with the stock down Cowboys against the wingless Falcons. Betting a never-a-doubter is the best. Meanwhile, Yank stumbled across the finish by nabbing the Saints ML. We knew that the line was fishy and had it not been a weird week where Tampa lost to Washington and Mike Vrabel outcoached Sean Payton, this bet should’ve hit. But here we are in banana land. Let’s get back into the black for Week 11!
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
Week 11 Picks
The Collaboration (5-5):
The New Orleans Saints+2 @ the Philadelphia Eagles
Yank: You all know it. I know it. I can’t quit the Saints. Last week I suggested that Sean Payton was my muse this year. He rewarded me by conducting a cacophonous mess in crunch time last week, kicking a field goal from the one-yard line to essentially lock in a loss against the Titans. But here I am again, I’m a glutton for punishment. We’ve won money betting both these teams to be better than people think at various points this season. As usual, we are going against the team that seems hot (Eagles coming off a big W) and backing the team that the haters have abandoned (Saints not coming through last week). Philly was fly Eagles flying last week, but anyone who watched the game could tell you, they were not nearly as dominant as the score suggested. Meanwhile, the Saints kept pace with arguably the best team in the AFC without Alvin Kamara. Anytime the Saints seem down, we like them to rebound. In this case there’s even a football reason to believe in them, which Sam will explain in detail.
Sam: Yank and I are buying another ticket for the Saints rollercoaster this season. While Yank certainly covers the stock up/stock down nature of this matchup, we also like this from a football perspective. Although the Eagles have a great rushing attack, the Saints once again have an incredible run defense. We like the Saints to be able to hurt(s) that rushing attack to the point where the game falls on Hurts’s arm. Hurts has looked better at times this season, but I’m not convinced that he’s the answer at QB for Philly. Here’s to Sean Payton bottling up the Eagles three-headed rushing beasts and scoring more points than they did in Tennessee.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Saints ML (+110)
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Saints ML (+110)
The Confrontation (Yank 8-1-1*; Sam 1-8-1*):
The Dallas Cowboys @ the Kansas City Chiefs-2.5 (-110)
Yank: This one is just good old-fashioned fun. Two swaggering southwestern teams enter into a Wild West saloon, gun belts sagging on hips, trigger fingers happy on hands. I’m pretty confident we are going to have a shootout on our hands folks. The logic here is simple, probably too simple. Everyone is down on the Chiefs, but to me they are still the same team that has been to back-to-back Super Bowls. Much like every winter Sportscenter anchors, fans, and radio hosts freak out about how whatever team Lebron is on is playing, the Chiefs are in the talking heads’ erogenous zone. Meanwhile, Pat Mahomes found himself last week against the Raiders. Fundamentally, nobody can stop this team. I still believe if they get the ball back down 3 with a minute or so left, more often than not they win. More importantly when the offense is humming they won’t even find themselves in that situation that often. I haven’t mentioned the Cowboys much because the opponent almost doesn’t even matter. How bout those Chiefs?
Sam: This game feels like a toss-up. I tend to lean towards Yank’s belief that the Chiefs are back. And yet, here I am, betting on the Cowboys. I opted to take the Cowboys for a couple reasons. For starters, I feel like the Chiefs are back and I’m thinking that a lot of others do too. I’d rather be against public opinion. Second, the Cowboys are very good and capable of beating any team. Not having Amari Cooper will hurt, but that means more targets for Ceedee Lamb. The final reason for taking the Cowboys is that they are underdogs. We’ve committed to playing more dogs this season and I won’t stop here. Anytime I can get a potential Super Bowl winner as an underdog, I’m going to grab them.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Chiefs-2.5 (-110)
Sam’s Play: $3.45 on the Cowboys+2.5 (-115) and $2.00 on the Cowboys ML (+115)
The Isolation (Yank 2-7; Sam 7-5):
The Pittsburgh Steelers ML @ The Los Angeles Chargers
Yank: It took me longer than I care to admit to write “Los Angeles” Chargers and that’s a fundamental part of this bet. Nobody in LA cares about the Chargers. A LOT of people in LA care about the Steelers. This stadium will be 80+% Steeler fans. Secondarily, what has this Chargers team done to suggest they should be favored by close to a TD over anybody? Furthermore, the Chargers have an obvious weakness, the run defense. The Steelers would love nothing more than to hand the ball to Najee Harris 30-40 times per week. The risk here is that the Steelers defense comes out undermanned, missing Minkah Fitzpatrick and TJ Watt due to injuries. I think this defense can do enough to contain the Chargers offense no matter what, particularly in a stadium where the Chargers will be struggling to hear their own snap count. Anytime I can get what feels like an equivalent team as an underdog in what I anticipate to be an either/or game, I’m going to take it.
Yank’s Play: $4.00 the Steelers ML (+225)
The Cincinnati Bengals-1.5 @ the Las Vegas Raiders (-110)
Sam: I was very indecisive about my pick this week. There were some underdogs I liked including the Colts and Texans, but the Colts felt like the obvious choice *bad sign* and the Texans stink. So instead, I went back to a strategy that has real math behind it, but hasn’t worked for us this season: betting on a road favorite after a bye. We pointed out a few weeks ago that road favorites perform well ATS historically. The Bengals fall into that category this week. Additionally, the line has trended further and further towards the Bengals. We like the line movement. We like the road favorite. We like the Bengals.
Sam’s Play: $5.50 on the Bengals-1.5 (-110)
The Bank-Week 11
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $130.22 | $83.35 |
| Risk: | $14.00 | $15.95 |
| Potential Earnings: | $19.05 | $15.80 |
| Record: | 17-13-1 | 13-20-1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 11-4 | 6-14-1 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 