Intro by Sam
A tough Sunday turned into a fun Thursday very quickly. We learned some lessons from Sunday that translated very well into our Turkey-day picks. As we head into the home stretch, we’re going to double down on bets we hate, pay attention to key injuries, and make money. Let’s recap.
The Recap
In the Week 11 Collaboration, we jumped on the Saints thinking that the roller coaster would rebound up, but it turns out that track might be permanently broken. They got slapped in the face by the Eagles due in large part because of injuries. We picked up on that key information we missed when identifying the Collaboration and doubled down on the Bills-6 against the injury-riddled Saints on Thanksgiving Day, essentially neutralizing our losses from Sunday.
Somebody call 9-1-1 (Sean Kingston Voice) because that’s Yanks record in the Confrontation and he’s burning my money on the dance floor. Yank got the best of me again as Dallas was unable to move the ball against Kansas City’s excellent defense… oh wait, I mean their garbage defense… At this point there is nothing I can do except bet no more than ~$2.00 on the Confrontation because it’s clearly in the cards this season that I must lose. Nevertheless, we learned our injury lesson from the Saints-Eagles matchup and applied it in part to our Raiders bet on Thanksgiving. We grabbed the Raiders as our tease killer of the week going against a depleted Cowboys team. This strategy paid huge dividends for us as the Raiders who were 200+ underdogs knocked off the Cowboys in thrilling fashion.
Finally in the Isolation, I finally found success by betting the road favorite coming off of a bye as the Bengals took care of business against the Raiders. Yank fell yet again in the Isolation when he picked the Steelers ML against the Chargers. The Steelers came roaring back when it looked like the Chargers were going to Charger, but they held off their fate this week and managed to secure the W. Meanwhile, we (and everyone that watched) found a way to lose in the Bears-Lions matchup on Thanksgiving. Yank took the Lions ML, stupid. I took the Bears -3, stupider. Neither panned out, and thus we can move on and never bet either of those teams again.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
Week 12 Picks
The Collaboration (5-6):
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-2.5 @ the Indianapolis Colts (-110)
Yank: We grabbed this line early on Monday morning, and the rationale was simple: the Colts are in the midst of a great run, but a run it has been. Aka they run the ball a lot. I would too if I had Jonathon Taylor handling the carries and Carson Wentz throwing the passes. Unfortunately for them, the Bucs have the best run defense in the league. We’re betting the Bucs force our old friend Wentz to beat them, and if that’s the case I like our odds of taking the Bucs.
Sam: It’s been awhile since the Bucs have demonstrated that they are one of the best teams in the NFL. I’m personally not sure that they are the best, but they certainly have the talent to be one of the best. This is a “put ourselves back on the map” game for the Bucs against an opponent who has gone on quite a run, to Yank’s point. Sure, the Colts are on a 3 game winning streak and have won 5 out of the last 6, but when you look closely at those wins it includes games against the Jaguars, Jets, Texans, and a banged up 49ers team. Their most impressive win came last week against the Bills and they might be feeling themselves a bit more than they should. I’m not sure if this is the week, but I like my chances that the Bucs can capitalize here against an opponent that might not be as good as the narrative says.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Bucs-2.5 (-110)
Sam’s Play: $4.60 on the Bucs-2.5 (-115)
The Los Angeles Rams-1.0 @ the Green Bay Packers
Sam: We’re bringing a Collaboration double header to you this week. There’s a couple of reasons we made this bet. First, we absolutely both hate it. The Rams who are coming off of two straight losses favored in Green Bay? Gross. Second, when you look at injuries like we’re trying to, the Packers are missing at least two starters on their OL this week going up against Aaron Donald and Von Miller. Yikes. And third, the line has moved all the way from the Packers to the Rams. Up to -2 in some books even. This makes the Rams road favorites coming off of the bye.
Yank: To be totally frank, Sam and I didn’t know what to do with this game. Two supposed Super Bowl contenders battling it out in Lambeau. Both coming off disappointing losses. Here’s the thing, the less of our opinions that are involved, generally the better the bets perform. Road favorites coming off a bye have a significantly positive record ATS over the last twenty years. The line has swung towards the Rams to put them in that position. Let’s follow the trends and the money and back the Rams in this one.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Rams-1.0 (-125)
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Rams-1.0 (-125)
The Confrontation (Yank 9-1-1*; Sam 1-9-1*):
Sam: Mercy! Mercy! Mercy! I am crying Mercy for goodness’s sake. Honestly, while I really should abstain from the Confrontation for the rest of the season, we truly couldn’t come up with a good matchup this week. Credit it to picking three games on Thursday (one of which we could have made a versus – that I would have lost again) or my being beaten to a pulp, but either way, we’ll try to get back to the Confrontation next week when we have a full slate of games again.
The Isolation (Yank 2-7; Sam 7-5):
Yank: If you like betting based on takes we hate, have I got the bet for you. As the resident Giants fan of this blog, I have absolutely zero belief in them to ever come through. They have been the worst team in the league by record over the last 5 years. However, this game follows a couple principles that I think bode well for the Gmen. 1) They are healthier at the skill positions than they have ever been at any point this season. 2) Jason Garrett just got fired and the Eagles have no tape on how the plays will be called. Hopefully the new play caller targets some of those aforementioned skill position players more than terrible Jason Garrett did. 3) The Eagles are probably not as good as they seem. People love them because they killed the Saints, we just watched that Saints team get killed again Thursday. Their whole team is decimated. Stock up/stock down matchup in a division game is a classic formula for us on this blog. Let’s see if the Giants can screw it up.
Yank’s Play: $4.00 the Giants ML (+162)
The Bank-Week 12
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $137.97 | $91.57 |
| Risk: | $14.00 | $9.60 |
| Potential Earnings: | $15.03 | $8.00 |
| Record: | 20-16-1 | 17-24-1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 13-4 | 9-16-1 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 