Intro by Yank
Thanksgiving week was good to the boys. We loaded up our plates with strategy based picks and were able to stuff our faces with some cold hard cash. Hopefully the good times will continue to roll; we are always hungry for more Ws to quote a crab leg loving QB.
The Recap
We followed up our Thursday success with some solid selections for Sunday. We started off the week with 2 picks in The Collaboration, beginning with the Tompa Bay Buccaneers on the road against the Colts. This one started a little shaky, but unsurprisingly Tom Brady ended with the ball, and the Bucs ended with a win and cover.
Sam was looking to abstain from The Confrontation for a week, given my total domination of that segment this year. Unfortunately he brought his luck with him to our second Collaboration pick which we substituted instead. The Rams were inexplicably favored coming off a bye in Green Bay. We thought perhaps that line was signaling something unexpected would happen, but alas, Rodgers and the Packers dominated exactly as expected.
Finally in The Isolation, I had the only pick, and the only victory, and what a sweet sweet victory it was. I sniffed out the fact that the Eagles had gotten a little overrated based on performances against bad opponents. My Giants took advantage of their mistakes, though their own offense was still abysmal. Nevertheless, winning money on Giants wins and Eagles/Cowboys losses all in a 4 day period is pretty close to gambling nirvana for me. Hopefully we’ve ascended to a higher plane for the remainder of the year.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
Week 13 Picks
The Collaboration (6-7):
The Arizona Cardinals-7.5 (-110) @ The Chicago Bears
Sam: Initially when I first circled this matchup, I liked the Bears. Bears as big dogs at home felt like a trap game for the Cardinals. I’ve kind of doubted the Cardinals all season, hence my initial inclination to bet the Bears, but as we’ve uncovered this year our initial inclinations are bad. We’re trying to bet more teams we don’t like because bets we like don’t work. And then I also remembered that the Cardinals are road favorites coming off of a bye. We’ve been on this strategy for much of the season, and are sadly only 1-2. I’m hedging that this historically proven strategy gets back on track for this game. The Cardinals have been undeniably good all season and Kyler Murray has had an extra week to recover and get back into playing shape. Oh, and by the way, Matt Nagy is still the coach of the Bears.
Yank: This is an easy one for me. Road favorite coming off a bye. Check. Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins are likely to make their returns. Check. Most importantly, the opposing coach is Matt Nagy, as Sam points out. Check, check, check. Nagy threw people off the scent a bit last week with a W but his shameful Chicago squad tried their best to lose to the Lions! The winless Lions! Dan Campbell is the only coach terrible enough to out-Nagy Nagy himself, giving the game away by calling back to back timeouts. Kliff Kingsbury will not make that mistake. The Bears are dead, their coach is a lame duck, and this one should be over by halftime.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Cardinals-7.5 (-110)
Sam’s Play: $5.75 on the Cardinals-7.5 (-115)
The Confrontation (Yank 9-1-1*; Sam 1-9-1*):
The Denver Broncos @ The Kansas City Chiefs-9.5 (-110)
Yank: This segment is quickly becoming the Yank picks the Chiefs/Sam goes against the Chiefs section. Maybe we will change the name to the Kansas City Clash or the Barbecue Battle before the season ends. You may have heard my rationale for this one before, but I still believe the Chiefs are underrated at this point. The narrative surrounding their season started negatively and never recovered. Meanwhile they still have the best QB in the league, best play caller in the league, and some of the best skill talent in the league. The Broncos are coming off a big win, which is the type of team I love to go against. The public clearly thinks this line is too high with more than 70% of tickets placed on the Broncos at time of writing. The line hasn’t moved an inch, which suggests the sharps like the Chiefs big. I’m with them. I was able to get a favorable price on an adjusted line, but I won’t be surprised if the Chiefs win this game by two touchdowns.
Sam: Yank is right to point out that I have nothing going for me in the Confrontation. Ultimately, nothing that I say matters for this matchup. Because it’s 2021 and the Confrontation, no pontificating I do on this game will matter. Somehow all of the Broncos players will get injured on the opening kickoff and it’ll be a neveradoubter that I lose. So if I were you, I’d stop reading here and put your life savings on the Chiefs-infinity. If you are interested in the reasons why you should not bet on the Broncos, read my justification for betting on them as follows: The lack of movement suggests the books are balanced appropriately and everyone loving the Broncos in this one doesn’t feel good. And yet, this one doesn’t quite playout the way Yank implies. According to Caesars Sportsbook, while the bulk of the tickets are on the Broncos, the bulk of the money is too. Our formula usually implies that the public comes in with a high number of tickets but the sharps move the money. In this case, it’s both. Additionally, while the Chiefs looked like themselves against the Raiders, they didn’t follow that magic up against a depleted Cowboys team only scoring 19 points. I’m betting that the Chiefs aren’t fixed yet and that playing a heated game against a division rival who finally has a competent – albeit not magical – quarterback, can keep this game more competitive than in years past. Here’s to losing more of my money!
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Chiefs-8 (-120)
Sam’s Play: $2.50 on the Broncos+9.5 (-110) and $3.00 on the Broncos ML (+350)
The Isolation (Yank 3-8; Sam 8-5):
The Washington Football Team ML @ the Las Vegas Raiders
Sam: Here we are once again, leaning into the bets we hate. When the lines came out at the beginning of this week, I was shocked by the line Raiders-2.5. The Raiders are an above .500 team and the Football Team is below .500. I thought the Raiders were severely undervalued. After talking with Yank, he made me cool my jets a bit and so I let this matchup go. Then come the end of the week, I’m still searching for the right Isolation pick and I notice that not only has the line moved, it has moved towards the Football Team! In this scenario, this matchup is an auto-bet. The public is on the Raiders with +70% of the tickets/money and yet the line has moved against the Raiders. Second, as I’ve laid out, I absolutely hate this bet. Old me would’ve bet on the Raiders, but we’re new men this year. Follow the lines and bet against dumb Sam. That’s how I arrived at the Football Team. When this goes horribly awry, don’t @ me.
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Football Team (+105)
The Los Angeles Chargers ML (+140) @ The Cincinnati Bengals
Yank: This is another in a long line of stock up/stock down games which have provided solid results for us all year. The Bengals stock couldn’t be higher coming off a blowout victory over their rival Steelers. Everyone’s most recent memory of them is of them firing on all cylinders. Meanwhile the Chargers tried as hard as they could to give their most recent game to the Broncos. Their most recent mental image is bumbling buffoonery. The thing is, these teams are more similar than they are different. They both have solid offenses led by dynamic young QBs and bad defenses. I’m pretty confident that this will be a close game that either team can win. I’m happy to take the +140 odds on a team that seems like they have a 50-50 chance to win.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Chargers (+140)
The Bank-Week 13
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $143.80 | $90.57 |
| Risk: | $15.00 | $16.25 |
| Potential Earnings: | $15.71 | $23.02 |
| Record: | 22-17-1 | 18-25-1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 14-5-0 | 10-17-1 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 