Intro by Yank
We’re lucky to be here folks. After last weekend, One Last Line HQ got a call from Urban Meyer, who was looking to get his spirits up after another terrible loss. After about 20 minutes of him calling us losers and screaming at us to defend our past performance against the spread, we were ready to shut this whole endeavor down. Fortunately, Shad Khan came to his senses, and that helped us come to ours. Don’t look now, but these two losers have a shot to finish the year in the green.
The Recap
Last week’s results were a serious bucking of the trend for this NFL season. For what feels like the first time all year favorites dominated going 11-3 against the spread. Teams with COVID issues, significant injury issues on one side of the ball, or just being dead all contributed significant losses. We will need to investigate which dogs are still alive moving forward.
Fortunately, in The Collaboration we were smart enough to go against the dead Lions coming off a W. We probably shouldn’t pat ourselves on the back too hard for going against the worst QB, worst coaching, and the worst record in the league, but we will take an easy W any day of the week. Sam finally got the monkey off his back in The Confrontation as the Cowboys cruised to an easy victory over the Football Team on the back of Micah Parsons.
Unfortunately, in The Isolation, the bad luck monkey decided to hop back on with a vengeance. Sam was feeling good early as it seemed the Browns were going to cruise to an easy victory against the Ravens. Their collapse in the second half led to one of the few underdog covers of the day, by 0.5 points no less. My Isolation pick was no help to turn the tide either. The Bills tried to play one good quarter against Brady in Tampa, and while that quarter was so good they were able to force overtime, they ultimately went down with the ship.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
Week 15 Picks
The Collaboration (8-7):
The Houston Texans @ the Jacksonville Jaguars-5 (-110)
Sam: Ladies and Gentleman, welcome to the week of Urban Fire, I mean Meyer. In honor of his cancelation from the league – and hopefully for good – we are celebrating by taking the Jags for the first time all season. All jokes aside, this pick is about as good of a strategy as the head coach kicking the team’s kicker to motivate him is. Okay, maybe not all jokes aside. At the end of the day, this is less of a strategy pick – although the line has moved with the Jags – and more of a gamble that the Jags players and assistant coaches for that matter are due for a “let’s celebrate the firing of an asshat” by playing our best game of the year. The only other thing we have going for us is that both of us hate this bet and would rather not touch it with a thirty-nine-and-a-half-foot pole.
Yank: 🎶 You’re a mean one, Urban Meyer. You reallllllly arrrrrrrrre a HEEL! You’re as cuddly as a cactus and as charming as an eel, Urban MEYYYYYYYER. Everybody, including your assistants and whole team, thinks you’re a huge loserrrrr!🎶 Nothing like a timeless classic, updated by us here at One Last Line. Similarly betting against the dead Texans with Davis Mills under center and David Culley at the controls is a tale as old time. The line has jumped almost 3 points in favor of the Jags since the firing was announced. Put us in the sleigh with the sharps on the way down the mountain!
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Jaguars-4 (-115)
Sam’s Play: $5.50 on the Jaguars-5 (-110)
The Confrontation (Yank 10-2-1*; Sam 2-10-1*):
The Cincinnati Bengals @ the Denver Broncos-3 (-110)
Yank: I bet on the Broncos last week and I hated it. Admittedly it was a stupid thing to hate since they pulled away easily in the second half and never looked back, but it did nothing to shake my feeling that Teddy Bridgewater and Vic Fangio are both in over their heads. On the other hand, the Bengals continued to show some moxie (admittedly in a loss) against San Francisco. Joe Burrow is a gamer, the type of guy you want to back. The first time I saw this line I loved the idea of betting the Bengals to win outright. They seemed like they’d be fun to root for in this spot in what seems pretty likely to be a close game with playoff implications. You’ll notice that none of this rationale has anything to do with any of the strategies, but don’t think about that too much, having money on the Bengals will be fun! They have a great shot to win outright! Plus do you really believe Sam can win two of these in a row?
Sam: Before I dive into the picks I have to say: WOOOO that felt good! Now back to this week. Do you think I can win two of these in a row? Cause I certainly don’t. As a Vikings fan, I have a soft spot in my heart for Teddy. I was pumped when he started out the season hot, and then he lost me the collaboration two weeks ago by scoring 9 points against the Chiefs. And yet, here I am, once again, willing to lose my money on Teddy Two Gloves. Why? Well, this is about as clear-cut of a strategy pick as we have this week. All of the public is on the Bengals (read: Yank), and yet the line has moved towards the Broncos. When I checked the handy-dandy update shared by Caeser’s Palace, it shows that the Broncos have the bulk of the money on them. This is a tried and true strategy pick. The sharps like the Broncos, so I’m backing them for the 3rd straight week. Here’s to hoping I go 2-1 in that stretch.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Bengals+3 (-110)
Sam’s Play: $4.40 on the Broncos-3 (-110)
The Isolation (Yank 5-8; Sam 9-6):
The Tennessee Titans @ the Pittsburgh Steelers PK (-105)
Sam: Gross, gross, gross. I hate this pick. This version of the Steelers has to be the grossest team since Tomlin started coaching there. Big Ben looks old and throws a bunch of ducks and then out of nowhere dials it up. Pick one, Ben. Nevertheless, the Steelers are still somehow hanging in the playoff hunt. This is a win-or-go-home type game for the Steelers, and I like having Tomlin in meaningful games. Furthermore, and arguably the main reason they even fell into my consideration, is that the line opened as Titans-2 and as of this morning it is Steelers-1.5. There are no major cases of Covid outbreaks on either team, and there doesn’t seem to be a ton of tickets on either team. That kind of line movement seems fishy, and I’m glad to have gotten the line early as a pick’em before it moved an extra point and a half.
Sam’s Play: $5.25 on the Steelers PK (-120)
The Carolina Panthers @ the Buffalo Bills-12
Yank: Here I am again, back in The Isolation, picking the Bills. Long-time readers will remember me spending 2020 going against the Bills over and over again in this section, so what gives. Well for starters, I was wrong about the Bills last year, they were in fact as good as people thought. Second, when I first saw this line this week, my instant reaction was “wow that seems like way too many points for the Bills to cover”. As we’ve discussed ad nauseam this year our initial instincts are often wrong. The Bills stock is actually down, even with this huge line, coming off two losses. The narrative is at 7-6 they might be pretenders. But guess what my friends, in the Bills seven wins they have won *Lebron voice* not one, not two…not five, not six but SEVEN games by more than 12. That’s right, every game they’ve won they’ve won by more than 12. Add in that this Carolina team has no offensive coordinator and no QB and you’ve got a recipe for a big victory.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Bills-12 (-115)
The Bank-Week 15
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $153.65 | $98.92 |
| Risk: | $15.00 | $15.15 |
| Potential Earnings: | $13.25 | $14.00 |
| Record: | 26-19-1 | 22-28-1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 17-6-1 | 13-19-1 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 