Intro by Sam
He knows when you’ve been sleeping (us). He knows when you’re awake (the public) He knows when you’ve been bad (me) or good (Yank), so be(t) good (Yank) for goodness sake. Welcome to a Christmas edition of One Last Line. With a few games on Christmas Day, we wanted to get our post out a few days earlier for you loyal few who follow along. Also, in line with the Holiday Spirit, we will not be picking isolation games this week as this holiday season is about being together with family… and we also both liked the same matchups this week. Before we get to the picks, let’s recap.
The Recap
It’s no wonder that our Collaboration pick fell short when we decided to bet on the unanimously untalented Jaguars against the Texans. We thought they’d find their Red-Nosed Reindeer when they let go of Urban Meyer, but all they found was a loss and coal in the bottom of our shared stockings.
In the Confrontation, Yank summoned his inner Lucy from Charlie Brown by pulling the football out from under me once again when he picked the Bengals over the Browns. In what was decidedly a strategies pick, I was fooled yet again by the Broncos and lost what feels like my 100th Confrontation matchup this season.
Yank and I nabbed the rare double win in the Isolation. Yank’s Bills expanded their 7 wins this season to 8 and with that 8 wins by more than 12 points, covering the spread against the Panthers. I held my nose and took the Steelers in one of the most ridiculous games of the weekend that featured 7 field goals and only two touchdowns. Thankfully all I needed was a Steelers victory and they managed to outkick the hapless Titans. Now let’s see what Santa left under the tree for us this week.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
Week 16 Picks
The Collaboration (8-8):
The Indianapolis Colts @ the Arizona Cardinals-1 (-110)
Yank: 🎶Heark the hearald angels singgggg: pickkk teams that lost, the week be-fore! 🎶 In all seriousness I’m not going to start referring to myself as the herald, but I’ve been singing this tune all year. Everyone loves the Colts this week coming off a huge victory at home against the Patriots. Meanwhile the Cardinals could not have looked worse last week getting worked by the terrible Lions of all teams. BUT – The Colts looked like there were 50 mph winds in Lucas Oil Stadium in terms of their gameplan, which called for more Jonathon Taylor than Christmas cookies for Santa. The Cardinals have been stout against the run all year but struggle against the pass, color me skeptical that Carson Wentz can take advantage. On the other side of the ball, Kyler Murray struggled to adapt to life without Deandre Hopkins, but these things take time. Betting on an offensive rebound from the first half MVP and his whiz kid coach feels like a worthy risk to me. 🎶Glory to, the new born Kinggggggggg(sbury)!🎶
Sam: We love a stock up vs. stock down matchup between good teams more than Frosty loves a snowstorm and a corn cob pipe. As Yank lays out, this is the quintessential matchup we’re looking for. While this one fits the bill, it does worry me slightly. The Cardinals have been a first-half-of-the-year team and we’re decidedly not in the first half of the year anymore. The Colts are running down hill hard, and that’s no fun for anyone in late December. And yet, my dislike of this bet is what makes it all the more enticing. We’ll need Santa to enjoy the warm weather in Arizona and leave us a nice, big present in the shape of a W under the tree.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Cardinals PK(-108)
Sam’s Play: $5.50 on the Cardinals-PK (-110)
The Buffalo Bills @ the New England Patriots-2.5 (-110)
Sam: After an initial look at this matchup, you’d probably say this line is pretty fair. And by the measure of line movement, it appears that it is. This line opened at -2.5 and has stayed there all week. Nevertheless, Yank and I are siding with the Bills. We like the Bills to be motivated after their bummer of a loss to a Pats team that ran the ball on every play and we think the Pats might be a little overrated.
Yank: Sam has the rationale locked down here. The Bills in this game certainly won’t be dreaming of a white day-after-Christmas given the way weather wreaked havoc on the last matchup between these teams. That being said, after last week these are the teams with the two highest point differentials in the league, with the Bills checking in at #1 (-151 points through 15 weeks). Point differential doesn’t tell us everything, but it does tell us these are two quality teams. My personal rule is that similar quality teams generally split these division matchups, so it’s a smart wager to take the Bills in this situation. The Pats will be motivated coming off a loss, and Bills fans are no strangers to heartbreak so I am going to take the points to protect myself in what seems likely to be a back and forth rough and tumble game. Here’s hoping the Bills day will be merry and bright after this one.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on Bills+2.5 (-105)
Sam’s Play: $2.20 on the Bills-7.5 (-110) and $3.64 on the Bills ML (+110)
The Confrontation (Yank 11-2-1*; Sam 2-11-1*):
The Cleveland Browns @ the Green Bay Packers-7.5 (-110)
Yank: You better watch out, you better not cry, you better not pout I’m telling you why-in this game I’m taking a flier! The Packers are really good, while the Browns mostly are not and are likely to have COVID troubles, so what gives? Every week there is a big upset nobody expects, because we have enough data to know which teams are good or not at this point and we expect the good ones to come through. We forget, that it’s hard to win in the NFL and that even the best teams occasionally have a stinker. This is the matchup this week, every idiot you know loves the Packers in a tease to win this game by more than 1.5. An overwhelming majority of the tickets will be on the Packers in this game. Meanwhile, the Browns are in the thick of the playoff hunt, are well coached, and have an extremely solid defense. A couple breaks go the right way and they could easily pull this one out, and these odds make it seem like they have no chance at all. Santa Chubb is coming to town baby.
Sam: Let’s be honest, it doesn’t matter if I was sleeping or if I was awake, I’m on the effing naughty list this year. Just call me St. Nick because I’m gifting Yank and you a +280 ML on a Christmas platter. You should do your partner/kids a favor and bet with Yank so you can afford that special present this year. I’m going with the Packers in this one. The Packers are the team every member of the public loves to hate and yet they’re 11-3 ATS this season and the best team in the NFC. I originally considered going with Yank on the Browns, and there are plenty of reasons to bet them, but at the end of the day, I couldn’t pull the trigger. The Packers are healthy and dealing, while the Browns entire roster is on the COVID list and the last time we were impressed with Baker Mayfield was when he was a Sooner.
Yank’s Play: $4.00 on the Browns ML (+280)
Sam’s Play: $4.20 on the Packers-7.5 (-105)
The Isolation (Yank 6-8; Sam 10-6):
The Bank-Week 16
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $162.5 | $94.02 |
| Risk: | $14.00 | $15.54 |
| Potential Earnings: | $20.50 | $15.00 |
| Record: | 29-20-1 | 23-30-1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 20-7-0 | 14-21-1 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 