Intro by Sam
Despite our merry and bright Christmas theme, our picks were less so. We lost more than we won, but that’s better than most weeks last season. We’re not down on ourselves and ready to finish this season out strong.
The Recap
We got off on the wrong foot on Christmas day, when our first Collaboration of the weekend lost. We picked the Cardinals off of a bounceback loss to the Lions. Instead, they laid down and died to the surging Colts. The Cardinals mustered 16 points against the Colts and will be featured again this week.
After that dreadful performance, we both successfully managed to pick losing bets in the Packers vs. the Browns for our Confrontation. Early Sunday morning when I realized that Yank had only taken the ML, I almost texted him to grab the Browns points because I knew immediately that this would end in the way to dag us both. I had the Packers and the points, which seemed like a no-brainer most of the way through the game until the Browns tried their best to get Yank an ML cover and yet, couldn’t pull it out.
We both got on track with our second Collaboration pick of the week when we scoped out the overlooked Bills against the over-inflated Patriots. The Pats haven’t played anyone basically all season and they beat the Bills in a massive blizzard by running the ball on every play. Thankfully your boys were all over it and salvaged one victory for the week.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
Week 17 Picks
The Collaboration (9-9):
The New York Giants+6 (-110) @ the Chicago Bears
Yank: You would think that after we took a beating on the Jags we’d have learned our lesson, but if you thought that you don’t know us very well. Here we are, back again, with the stink fest bet of the week. The rationale for this one is straightforward; it is one of our classic stock up (Bears coming off a win in Seattle) versus stock down (Giants coming off a series of demoralizing losses). We think these teams are more alike than different (aka they both STINK). The Bears being favored over any NFL team by 6+ feels like a mistake. That said the Giants whole offense is a mistake that could easily come back to bite us.
Sam: Yank is all over this one. We have been on the search for tease killers all season because last year we got dagged left and right by games we thought were no-brainers. While neither of us thinks that the Bears are a never-a-doubter, it seems that 67% of the tickets are on the Bears. Last week, I didn’t accept the fact that the Seahawks were the tease-killer candidate of the week because the Bears stink, and yet, they lost to the Bears. This is the same version of that pick but for this week. When two bad teams play, anything can happen. Let’s hope the GMen pull out all of the stops and *checks Twitter* Matt Nagy still coaches the Bears.
Yank’s Play: $3.00 on the Giants+6.5 (-105) and $2.00 on the Giants ML (+225)
Sam’s Play: $2.00 on the Giants+6.5 (-105) and $3.00 on the Giants ML (+225)
The Los Angeles Rams @ the Baltimore Ravens+6.0 (-110)
Sam: The almost perfect stock/stock down matchup. These two teams are both good teams and the Rams just came off of an important win against the Vikings, while the Ravens were torched by the Bengals. Despite a tumultuous last couple of weeks for the Ravens, they are still in the thick of the playoff hunt, and for that matter, the division crown. We believe that coaches make a difference in picking the lines and while the Rams have a decent head coach, we like John Harbough to prepare his team to take on the Rams rushing attack and move the ball down the field.
Yank: The Ravens gave up over 500 yards passing a week ago against the Bengals. Was that a sign they’re dead from injuries or a one-week aberration? We’re betting on the latter in this matchup. While the vast majority of the public is backing the Rams in this game based on the Ravens performance last week, we believe the Ravens aren’t as bad as they appeared. They have a top 5 coach, a QB that hung in a game with Aaron Rodgers two weeks ago, and some defensive players back from injury. I would not be at all surprised if they win this game.
Yank’s Play:$3.00 on the Ravens+6.5 (-105) and $2.00 on the RavensML (+225)
Sam’s Play: $2.00 on the Ravens+6.5 (-105) and $3.00 on the Ravens ML (+225)
The Confrontation (Yank 12-2-1*; Sam 2-12-1*):
The Arizona Cardinals @ the Dallas Cowboys -6.5 (-110)
Yank: I’m coming out with my hands up, I know I’m surrounded. I’ll be the first one to admit that this bet is a straight-up fade of the Cowboys. Since I hate the Cowboys, there’s some risk that I’m betting with my heart instead of my head. I don’t think that’s the case here though, because the prevailing narratives on these two teams are out of whack. On the Arizona side, they lost their last two games which has left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth. However, the general consensus is that they are going to careen into nothingness down the stretch. We’re talking about the team that had the best record in football two weeks ago. It’s possible they fade into oblivion but to me, it’s equally possible they just had a bad week against the Lions and some bad luck last week when their kicker missed three makeable kicks and they lost a close one. On the Cowboys side, they appear to have righted the ship except their last three games were against the COVID decimated Washington Football team, twice, and the horrible Giants. They have not beaten a good team that can throw the ball around all year. Teddy Bridgewater torched this team! I think this game is an obvious market correction opportunity on both these narratives and I am happy to grab an outrageous amount of points on the Cardinals.
Sam: I don’t love this matchup. I lost a lot of dollars last season when I would bet against a team that lost me money the previous week. The Cardinals are in danger of being that team for me this week. Additionally, the Cardinals are a stock-down team with a good record and the Cowboys have won three straight to Yank’s point. This should be in the boys’ wheelhouse this year, but I don’t like what I’m seeing from the Cardinals and the Cowboys have been good all year outside of a stinker here and there. To give you some proof of that fact, the Cowboys are 12-3 ATS this season. Of course, Vegas likes to try and even those records out as much as they can, so there are a few extra points thrown the Cowboys way, but I think it’s still possible the Cowboys run away with this one. This week, Yank and I were curious about finding our tease-killer strategy and we did a loose examination of the season those far. Teams that are -6 to -11.5 favorites are 49-14 ATS. That seems to indicate that the Cowboys have a pretty good shot of winning this bet straight up. Once again, let’s go Cowboys.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Cardinals+6.5 (-100)
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Cowboys-6.5 (-100)
The Isolation (Yank 6-8; Sam 10-6):
The Miami Dolphins @ the Tennessee Titans-3 (-115)
Sam: I’m breaking my rule this season and going for a 4th game this week. Yank called this matchup early this week and I was skeptical at first. Why are the Titans 3 point favorites against the Dolphins who have won 7 straight? This line is suspicious and I like leaning into weird Vegas lines. After a closer look at the Dolphins win streak, they haven’t played a single good team. I mean, no one. The Titans are a little stock up too, but without Derrick Henry, I think most people think this team has no chance at being decent. But the Titans are sitting at 10-5 and not as bad as most people think. I still don’t love this matchup, but loving my bets has never worked for me.
Sam’s Play: $4.60 on the Titans-3 (-115)
The Bank-Week 17
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $158.31 | $90.32 |
| Risk: | $15.00 | $19.60 |
| Potential Earnings: | $14.00 | $26.31 |
| Record: | 30-22-1 | 25-32-1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 21-8-0 | 15-23-1 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 