Intro by Yank
It’s almost impossible to believe we’ve arrived at week 18. It’s also almost impossible to believe that both of us have a chance to finish in the green for the regular season after we hemorrhaged money in year one of this blog. We will continue to ride the strategies to the playoffs, and beyond!
The Recap
Week 17 showcased both our strengths and our weaknesses. In The Collaboration, we identified two potential underrated dogs against overrated opponents. Unfortunately, the Giants showed us they were in fact properly rated as terrible, getting blown out by the lowly Bears. At least the Ravens made us look smart by leading against the Rams for the vast majority of the game. Sadly as has so often been the case for them this year, they were not able to hold on, ultimately giving up a TD to lose by one point and sinking the Moneyline aspect of our bets.
In The Confrontation, I tried a similar tactic predicting the Cardinals were underrated coming off a loss, against the Cowboys who has been flying high thanks to blowouts of bad teams. Since it’s 2021, and Sam remains snakebit in this segment, the Cardinals came through with flying colors.
Finally, Sam bounced back mightily by taking a big risk. He broke our “no more than 3 bets per week” rule to jump on the Titans bandwagon in The Isolation and was rewarded with a never-a-doubt shellacking of the Dolphins. Let’s hope we can capitalize on a few more mismatches like this one before the playoffs start and only good teams are left.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
Week 18 Picks
The Collaboration (9-10):
The Los Angeles Chargers-3 @ The Las Vegas Raiders
Sam: It is only fitting in our last regular season post of the 2021 season that we pick the home-dog Raiders to beat the Chargers. This checks almost every box for the boys’ strategies this season. First and foremost, we wanted to take more underdogs. Check. The line has not moved towards the Chargers despite having a majority of the tickets. We, of course, would have liked the line to inch towards the Raiders, but a lack of movement is good for dogs as well. Semi-check. And maybe our biggest takeaway from the year: Yank and I think the Raiders stink and we hate betting on them. I’ll let yank pick it up from there.
Yank: Ladies and gentlemen, for my next trick, I need some assistance from the audience. Can you help me find anyone, ANYONE who thinks the Raiders are going to win this game? The gambling public and the entire NFL-watching segment of the country have been in love with the Chargers all year. In a must-win game, everyone’s first reaction is to take Justin Herbert and his cannon arm to make enough plays to find a W. Sometimes, when everyone thinks something is a lock, it’s because it is. However, when everyone you know thinks something is a lock, but the spread is only 3 points…beware. The Chargers are not significantly more talented than the Raiders. Derek Carr and co. have been pulling out wins against good teams all year. Add in that the Chargers won the first matchup and it starts to get really hairy; this seems like two teams that should go 1-1 against each other. Rich Bisaccia is unquestionably a negative versus Staley and if we lose, he will be the reason why. Nevertheless, this has the makings of a classic 50-50 game, and as we’ve done all year, if we can get plus odds in that scenario we are going to take them.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Raiders ML (+135)
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Raiders ML (+130)
The Confrontation (Yank 13-2-1*; Sam 2-13-1*):
The Tennessee Titans-10 @ the Houston Texans
Yank: This Sunday pick builds off my Saturday pick below in the Isolation. Spoiler alert: I’m confident the Chiefs are going to kill Drew Lock and the Broncos. That will make this game a must-win to keep the number one seed and the bye for the Titans. That’s about as a strong of a motivational factor as exists in the modern NFL. Add in the fact that 1) this is also a revenge spot for the Titans since they lost to Texans earlier this year 2) the coaching disparity between Vrabel and Culley could not be wider and 3) Derrick Henry may play some meaningful snaps in this game, and I am expecting nothing less than a bloodbath this week in Houston. Sometimes it’s better to not overthink it and for me, this is one of those instances.
Sam: Disclaimer: everyone, for God’s sake, bet the Titans this week. The pain of the Confrontation will come to end for me after Sunday and you can celebrate with free money by picking the Titans. I have been thoroughly beaten down and am suffering from Stockholm Syndrome. Yank says, jump. I say, how much do I bet on the Texans? In this case, I am limiting my exposure here. I am as confident in this pick as I am in the amount of money I put on this ticket. Anyways, here’s my reasoning to take this pick, for what it’s worth: stock up/stock down. The Titans won a big game two weeks ago against the 49ers, crushed the fraudulent Dolphins, and have put themselves in prime position for the #1 seed. The Texans were on a bit of an upswing before falling short against the Trey Lance-led 9ers. I think division games are usually closer than it seems like they should be and the evidence for that is clearer than ever when the Texans beat this very Titans team 7 weeks ago. And yet, had I paid closer attention and realized that they had already won this matchup, I would never have bet the Texans… Alas, the Texans have a recipe to keep this close and undoubtedly won’t follow it. Texans fans, if you exist, you can thank me for securing this loss for you and guaranteeing the 3rd overall pick in the draft for you.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Titans-9.5 (-121)
Sam’s Play: $2.30 on the Texans+10.5 (-115)
The Isolation (Yank 6-8; Sam 10-6):
The Denver Broncos @ The Kansas City Chiefs-10.5
Yank: Trying to capitalize on teams that still have playoff motivations will be a theme for me this week. The league wisely moved this Chiefs game to Saturday, effectively making it a must-win game if they want any chance at the 1 seed. Meanwhile, the Broncos resemble my woeful Giants because they are ravaged by injuries and are starting a terrible backup QB. Perhaps most importantly, the Broncos are missing both starting corners against the best passing offense in the league. This feels like a classic Chiefs pedal to the medal performance early, and if they jump out to a 14+ point lead I’m pretty confident Denver doesn’t have the horses (pun intended) to run with them.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Chiefs-10.5 (-115)
The New Orleans Saints @ The Atlanta Falcons+3.5
Sam: Dogs, dogs, dogs. We’ll be saying it in our sleep while we hibernate during the offseason. Once again, I am taking a dog with my isolation pick, this time it’s the Falcons. I hate the Falcons. Betting on Matt Ryan makes me want to hurl. I don’t think I’ve ever won a bet on the Falcons or against them for that matter. So why am I betting them here? The Saints are a good/bad team. They don’t really have a quarterback, and just haven’t been good enough to rely on them. As we pointed out earlier this year, the Saints are a rollercoaster team and we’ve had a decent pulse on them all season. This has all the makings of a letdown game. At the end of the day, Sean Payton somehow made this team decent and certainly needs to be commended for that, and while they have an outside chance of making the playoffs, let’s be honest, we’ll all be better off not watching Taysom Hill in a playoff game.
Sam’s Play: $5.50 on the Falcons+3.5 (-110)
BONUS PICK: The Washington Football Team-14 @ the New York Giants
Sam: Did I mean WFT or WTF? Must’ve been autocorrect. It’s not clear why I would risk anything on the Washington Football Team at this point. A meaningless game against meaningless teams. And yet, when faced with the meaninglessness of our existence (or our bets), Sartre would tell us to create meaning. This pick’s meaning is pretty simple. The Giants stink! We made our mistake betting on them last week – and you’re right to be concerned that this is a case of rage betting against the team you lost on last week – but they truly do stink. As our resident Giants fan, Yank has co-signed this bet. If you were not already aware, the Giants finished last week with -10 passing yards!! Joe Judge saw Matt Nagy’s 1 yard of passing and raised him -10! Wow! But seriously, thank God Saquon Barkley had over 100 yards of rushing. What would we have done without it? Okay, okay. Enough hate on the Giants performance from last week. Any team that is capable should absolutely be able to take care of business against this Giants team that is better off trying to get a better pick than playing hard in this game. Thankfully, Ron Rivera doesn’t know what’s best for his team at this point, and will absolutely coach this team to win by as much as they can. In this case, let’s hope he has the *football team* to do it.
Sam’s Play: $4.00 on the Football Team-14 (-110)
The Bank-Week 18
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $159.17 | $83.22 |
| Risk: | $15.00 | $16.80 |
| Potential Earnings: | $15.22 | $20.94 |
| Record: | 32-25-1 | 27-36-1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 23-9-0 | 17-25-1 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 