Welp… my start has gone about as poorly as Caesar’s was hoping. I’ve already bet $14 with $0 of winnings to show for it. It’s looking like I’ll be stuck at the $50 level… Alas, I’m going to attempt to analyze my picks briefly and tweak my strategy for tonight’s slate.
As usual, that prop bet was too good to be true. I like the idea of banking on guys like LeBron and KAT in good matchups but probably should have done a little more due diligence on DeRozan’s recent performances and his matchup before locking that one in. My Back-to-Back Money Line parlay was there for the taking but I did not consider how much the Hawks stink. Approaching port-a-potty stink levels. I will come back to that play at some point and I’ll likely try to find a better matchup than Hawks vs. Clippers as I did with Magic vs. Wizards. And of course, the Rockets stink too. That ML was really just a flier, hence the $1 bet. I’ll hold off on those for a bit while I try to find some winnings elsewhere first…
Todays Picks
For tonight, and probably the next few days, I am going to attempt to adapt Yank and my’s NFL strategy to take more underdogs ATS. If I see line movement, as I did against the Hawks last night and ignored, I’ll try to jump on it. I’ll be circling potentially overlooked teams against public teams and taking the dog ATS or trying to find psychological edges in games as they crop up (like Klay being back for the Warriors).
Pick #1: $3.30 on the San Antonio Spurs+6.5 (@ the New York Knicks)
My underdog pick tonight is the San Antonio Spurs visiting the New York Knicks. While the Spurs aren’t what they used to be, they’re still well coached and have shown this season that they can win games. Meanwhile the Knicks are riding the perception that they’re a playoff team, but have struggled to live up to that reputation. The Spurs are missing some key guys, so this could go horribly, but so are the Knicks. Let’s hope this underdog pick gets me on track.
Pick #2: $3.30 on the Milwaukee Bucks-2.5 (@ the Charlotte Hornets)
The Bucks just lost to the Hornets the other night despite Giannis dominating. They’re missing several key pieces including Jrue Holiday and sharp shooting Grayson Allen, but they’ve still got Giannis and Middleton. Furthermore, I’ve seen this line creep in the direction of the Bucks. I’m going with a psychology play here. I’m counting on a motivated Bucks team to split the Home and Home series tonight.
One Last Line 