Intro by Yank
Playoffs!?! Playoffs! We are in fact talking about the playoffs. After the longest season in history, it’s finally time. Before we do it is my pleasure to recap Week 18 and the season as a whole.
Last week, we made some mistakes on the Chiefs and the Falcons in The Isolation (Sam was at least smart enough to fade the Giants in a bonus bet). Sam secured an elusive victory on the surprisingly feisty Texans in The Confrontation. Most importantly, the strategies came through for us yet again in The Collaboration where the underdog Raiders and their interim coach broke the hearts and minds of Chargers fans along with anyone who wanted to go to bed at a reasonable hour, and anyone who was rooting for a tie. Those results are all fine on their own, but with the regular season completed, it’s time to officially announce (drumroll…) I WON. I DID IT! If you placed all the exact bets I placed this year you won money. More importantly, we did it! Sam and I both finished significantly better than we performed last year. I am obligated to say that since I gloated for even two sentences we are destined to fail in the playoffs, but they can’t take this one away from us, folks. Nevertheless, much like the best coach of all time would say, last week is over and done with, we are onto the playoffs!
Playoff Power Rankings
We believe the playoffs are (unsurprisingly) a different atmosphere than the regular season. Teams are more likely to play to their potential and week to week momentum that builds is more likely to carry over. Good teams are going to come through, but “getting hot” matters. We are going to power rank the teams based on talent, HC/QB, momentum, etc., and go on the record with some predictions. We will adjust the rankings as the playoffs unfold.
| Sam | Yank |
| 1. Chiefs 2. Packers 3. Titans 4. Buccaneers 5. Cowboys 6. Cardinals 7. Bills 8. Rams 9. Patriots 10. Bengals 11. Eagles 12. 49ers 13. Raiders 14. Steelers | 1. Packers 2. Chiefs 3. Titans 4. Bills 5. Bucs 6. Cardinals 7. 49ers 8. Bengals 9. Cowboys 10. Rams 11. Raiders 12. Patriots 13. Eagles 14. Steelers |
| Super Bowl Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers | Super Bowl Matchup: Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans |
| Winner: Green Bay Packers | Winner: Tennessee Titans |
Wild Card Picks
The Las Vegas Raiders @ the Cincinnati Bengals-5.5 (Saturday at 4:30)
Sam: We’re not getting too far away from the strategies that made us successful all season with this bet. It’s been one distraction after another in Las Vegas this season with disappointing performances to boot. But no one in their right mind thinks the Raiders can beat the Bengals. Even Yank has been on this very blog deriding Bisaccia left and right. And yet, here we are, betting the Raiders. Why? For exactly the reasons I just laid out. No one believes they can do it! Yank and I got on this one early. Since then the line has moved towards the Raiders. Some might say it’s the sharps, others may say the casinos watched where we bet. Whos to tell?
Yank: Sam is all over it here, who do you know that thinks the Raiders can win this one. Even I – the second last week’s game ended – texted Sam and said it’s our week to go against Bisaccia. But it’s that instinct we want to go against. This Raiders team is feistier than seems possible, but there’s a chance they are the “nobody believes in us” team. More importantly, there may be more than meets the eye to them. Derek Carr has a strange Eli Manning-type quality to him, where even though nobody really thinks he’s good, he’s often clutch late in the game. Meanwhile, the Bengals have been awesome when they’re good, but just like the Raiders, they’ve been super inconsistent all year. This feels like a close game in the 4th between two similar teams, and if we can get 2-1 odds to take one side we’re going to do it, just like we have done all year.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Raiders ML (+200)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Raiders ML (+200)
The New England Patriots @ the Buffalo Bills-4.5 (Saturday at 8:15 PM)
Yank: This game just smells fishy. You can see in my rankings above that there is a significant disparity between these teams in my mind. When the Bills win this year they blow teams out, including this selfsame Pats team just a few weeks ago. Yet this line implies they are a 1 point favorite in this game if you remove home-field advantage? The public likes those odds, 59% of tickets have been placed on the Bills so far, but the line has not moved at all. As a fan, I want the Bills to win this game and I hope they do. But the fishy line indicates that smart people think this is a bad matchup. Division games are always wonky, the cold weather could wreak havoc on the Bills pass-centric attack, and going up against Bill Belichick in the playoffs is never a fun time. I don’t believe in this Pats team at all, but as we’ve proven this year, going against our instincts is more often than not the correct gambling move. Finally, and most importantly, the Bills history of just barely coming up short in big spots looms large here. Sam knows a thing or two about how that can affect a team and a fan base.
Sam: To Yank’s point, the line does seem a little fishy, but as of Saturday morning, the line has moved a tick towards the Bills seeming to indicate that some sharp money is coming in on the Bills. Nevertheless, Yank and I are in agreement on some key motivations. I, even more than Yank, have blasted this Pats team all year. I think they stink and they got so much gas during their win streak people forgot to look at who they played. You’d think I’d be all over the Bills then, but that was a recipe for losing last season. When you truly think about it, the Bills and the Pats have had virtually the same schedule and are only separated by one win in the win-loss column. These two teams look different but are much closer than we give them credit for, so I’m taking the ML and the spread in this one. One last thing of note, the Bills are playing in New York today. It is freezing cold in NY/buffalo (it will be 8F with a windchill below 0). This could be closer to the 14-10 Pats win version of this game than the 33-21 Bills version of this game. Furthermore reports circulated that star receiver Stefon Diggs asked Josh Allen to take some mustard off his passes when it’s this cold out. Allen’s completion percentage drops precipitously in weather like this. Here’s to hoping any of that matters.
Yank’s Pick: $5.50 on the Patriots+4 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $2.00 on the Patriots+4.5(-110) and $3.00 on the Patriots ML (+190)
| Yank | Sam | |
| Risk | $10.50 | $10.00 |
| Potential Earnings | $15.00 | $17.52 |
One Last Line 