Last night didn’t quite go my way. Funny how the bets I’m least confident turn out right and the ones I think are close to a sure thing find a way to lose, right? Well, that is certainly the case from last night. The Pels showed up and took care of business against the Knicks, but the Mavs let multiple 9-point leads slip and the Warriors never pulled away from the Fort Wayne Mad Ants… oh wait I mean the Indiana Pacers.
I didn’t really see a lot of correlation between the line movement and the outcome last night, but 3 games is definitely a small sample size. I’ll pay attention a little more closely tonight as well. While I wait for that theory to develop, tonight is about the underdogs. I’m almost strictly picking underdogs straight up to win, ones that I think have a good shot and others less so.
Pick #1: $2.00 on the Miami Heat Money Line (@ the Atlanta Hawks) +105
This one I’ve already made money on and nothing changes about this formula for me. The Heat are a hard-nosed team that brings it every night and the Hawks are basically the antitheses of that. The line has ticked towards the Heat in this one and if I get the Heat +odds against an inferior opponent, I will take it every time, even if this winds up as a loss.
Pick #2: $2.00 on the Chicago Bulls Money Line (vs the Milwaukee Bucks) +400
This is more of a reach. The Bulls played a lot better with Caruso back in the lineup. This didn’t come as much of a shock given that they have no guards right now and his impact on the defensive end is critical. Additionally, while the Bucks seem a little more stable with Jrue Holiday back in the fold, they’ve been pretty inconsistent lately. With Caruso back and the Bucks inconsistency, it could make the Bulls at +400 seem pretty silly.
Pick #3: $2.00 on the Golden State Warriors-12 (vs. the Houston Rockets) -110
My lone favorite of the night is banking on the Warriors not falling into a slump. They haven’t played very well over the last few games, but I can’t imagine them not playing well after losing to the Fort Wayne Mad Ants last night. Their struggles could be a sign that things aren’t all that swell in the Bay, but I’m rocking with championship pedigree in this one.
Pick #4: $2.00 on the Memphis Grizzlies Money Line (@ the Denver Nuggets) +140
Once again, I’m taking my Grizzlies as underdogs. They’ve won an incredible amount of games as underdogs this season, I believe it’s over 60%. I’ll take them here again, in part because I think they will win, but also because I will be watching every second of this game and want to have a little extra motivation. Jokic has been great, but I think the depth of the Grizzlies team, even without Bane and Anderson, will be enough to win on the margins.
Pick #5: $2.00 on Ja Morant Over 27.5 points parlayed with Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 1.5 blocks +240
For basically the same reasons as above, I wanted to take a fun parlay on the Grizzlies game. 27.5 points is definitely a higher number than I’d like, but without Bane, he’ll have to take on more of a scoring role. Additionally, he’ll be going up against a weaker backcourt and I think he can take advantage of that. As the second part of this Parlay, I have JJJ getting 2 or more blocks. He’s been on a block streak as of late, getting 4+ in every game over the last 5. Blocks are pretty hard to predict, but he’s on a tear right now, so let’s hope it’s Sam proof.
One Last Line 