Intro by Sam
Is it over? Can I open my eyes? What a miserable, miserable, miserable weekend for the boys.
Yank and I had success this season identifying the underdogs that could conceivably win and monitoring the line movement. We mentioned at the beginning of last week that we felt like the Playoffs could be a different beast, but we more or less went with the same strategy. Last week we made 12 bets and 11 of them were losers. Between us, we picked every underdog and they all lost except for the 49ers. Yank was the sole “winner” – if you can describe either of us like that – by correctly anticipating the Cowboys meltdown.
The question that we racked our brains with all week was whether last week was an aberration or if the post-season requires a different formula. While it seems unlikely that the favorites will dominate in quite the same way, if you’ll take a look at our power rankings, you’ll notice that most of the teams that lost last week were clumped around the bottom of the rankings. This to me, indicates that we knew who was good/bad and we went against ourselves. Additionally, there were some key matchups that we could have spent a little more time considering like the Bucs run defense against the Eagles rushing attack or the 7th seeds being just bad in general. While we’re likely doomed from the start, we will be leaning into our takes a little more this week. Ladies and gentlemen welcome to the week of takes.
Playoff Power Rankings
| Sam | Yank |
| 1. Chiefs 2. Packers 3. Titans 4. Buccaneers 5. 6. 7. Bills 8. Rams 9. 10. Bengals 11. 12. 49ers 13. 14. | 1. Packers 2. Chiefs 3. Titans 4. Bills 5. Bucs 6. 7. 49ers 8. Bengals 9. 10. Rams 11. 12. 13. 14. |
| Super Bowl Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers | Super Bowl Matchup: Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans |
| Winner: Green Bay Packers | Winner: Tennessee Titans |
Saturday Divisional Round Picks
The Cincinatti Bengals @ the Tennessee Titans (Saturday at 4:30 PM)
Yank: Is it strange to come off a week where I went 1-5 on picks feeling confident? I won’t fault you if you don’t believe me, but I think I have this mostly figured out, just in time for the Week Of Takes. My one mistake was believing in the Cardinals at the expense of the Rams. If you look at my rankings, if you flip the Rams and Cardinals I’d have had all eight teams left in my top 8. Why does this matter? Because if you believe in me(and you should) than you believe in the Titans. Everyone is so fired about this Bills/Chiefs game this week. It’s happening in this round because the Titans beat both of those teams. They are solid on both sides of the ball, formidable in the trenches, and extremely well-coached. Not a sexy formula, but an effective one. I picked them to make (and win) the Super Bowl because based on seeding they were guaranteed to get a mediocre team in this round ahead of one real matchup with a good team at home. Enter the Bengals as that mediocre team. The Bengals absolutely are sexy with their pink glasses-wearing QB and his second coming of TO favorite wideout. But they’re also decidedly mediocre, barely putting away Bisaccia and the Raiders last week. Moreover, their OL is worse than mediocre. This is the Week Of Takes, it’s also the week of the trenches, and there is no bigger gulf this week than between the Bengals and Titans on both lines of scrimmage. Don’t be surprised if the Titans rip them limb from limb.
Sam: I’m with Yank on this one. One thing about having a bye is that everyone forgets about you, and throw in the fact that Tennessee is arguably the most forgettable team of the bunch (I mean seriously, has there been a one seed that has gotten less hype?), you’ll have a lot of people excited to grab the Bengals. Since we’re leaning into takes, it’s important to look back at this season. The Titans won the AFC even after missing their monster Derrick Henry for about half the season. And speaking of Derrick Henry, he’s back. He’s back and he’s going up against a good defensive line that is missing a key face this week with Larry Ogunjobi out for the rest of the playoffs. Derrick Henry + a weakened DL = a long day for the defense. Furthermore, Ryan Tannehill and this Titans team have been here before. This isn’t their first rodeo in the playoffs. They know what it’s like to lose in the playoffs and what it’s like to win. I really do think that experience will matter, and with shaky Zac Taylor over on the Bengals sideline, I think there’s an opportunity for the Titans to out-execute the Bengals down the stretch.
Yank’s Pick: $5.50 on the Titans-3 (-115)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Titans-3 (-120)
The San Francisco 49ers @ the Green Bay Packers (Saturday at 8:15 PM)
Sam: I have the Green Bay Packers in my Super Bowl prediction so its no wonder that I’d pick them in this one. There are reasons to think that the 49ers will hang in there and maybe even win this one. Whether it’s Nick Bosa and the DLine or the 49ers rushing attack against a susceptible Green Bay defense. All of that could happen, but at the end of the day, the Green Bay Rodgers have been awesome all year. Rodgers can neutralize a pass rush and Davante Adams can murder you in your sleep. I think the public will be a little too excited by the 49er’s win over the Cowboys when there are reasons to be skeptical about a.) the Cowboys and b.) Jimmy G. Who didn’t get a little nervous watching Jimmy in the 2nd half after he tried to give the game back to the Cowboys?
Yank: I didn’t get nervous, but only because I knew Mike McCarthy had another trick up his game-blowing sleeve. Matt LaFleur will not be so generous. That being said, I think the Packers are inevitable, but this is a terrible matchup. The Packers’ run defense is awful and the 49ers run the hell out of the ball. The Packers need to protect Rodgers to have success on offense and the 49ers’ D-line maybe top to bottom the best in the league. Luckily for the Packers, the Niners are also awful on special teams at least. This is one of those games that I’ve made money on all year based on the idea it’ll be closer than expected and thus it’s worth it to take the dog outright, and yet…Kyle Shanahan’s end game conservatism scares me, Jimmy G scares me, most of all the idea of going against Aaron Rodgers in his middle fingers to the world-gunslinger-possible last dance season scares me. In the week of takes my take is simple: don’t bet against Rodgers at night in Lambeau when the other QB stinks.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Packers ML+Davante Adams to score a TD (+120)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Green Bay Packers-5.5 (-110) and $2.00 on Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, and Eli Mitchell all to score a TD +600
Sunday Divisional Round Picks
The Los Angeles Rams @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday at 3:00 PM)
Yank: Sam finally succeeded, he fully talked me out of the Rams during the course of this year. His bone-deep McVay hatred seeped into my veins as I watched Stafford throw pick after pick. He helped me forget that 3 of the best defensive players on the planet play on this team. It was easier not to contend with the fact that my favorite offensive player of the past decade signed with them mid-season. Then, out of nowhere, like Cam Akers with a reconstructed achilles, this team burst onto the scene last week and reminded me that they need to be reckoned with. Sean McVay took an offense led by Jared Freaking Goff to the Super Bowl! This team is much better than that version. Meanwhile, the Bucs last week got the new version of a bye which is a nothing game against a bad Eagles team. Good for them for winning, they also lost two All-Pro caliber offensive linemen. Color me skeptical their line can hold up against Donald, and they are still without the majority of their weapons. Even with all this said, Brady demands respect, and I’m too scared of him to take the Rams outright. But I can get arguably the better full team, plus 3 points? Lock it in for the week of takes.
Sam: The biggest fright here is absolutely Aaron Donald and Von Miller going up against a potentially depleted offensive line (although it seems as though Wirfs and Jensen may play). Nevertheless, I’m going with Brady and the Bucs. Is it because of my disdain for McVay and the Rams? Maybe. Or is it because they’ve shown all season that they might not be all that great? Ding ding ding. Yank already laid out how Stafford has thrown pick, after pick, after pick all year. Whatsmore is that he didn’t throw one at all last week! Regression to the mean, folks. Stafford and Jimmy G managed to stay afloat last week, but they didn’t face much adversity last week. In fact, I’d argue that people are a little too carried away by the Rams’ win over the Cardinals. The Rams really didn’t have to do much on offense because they got a pick-six and the best field position of all time. When they were faced with regular field position, they had a harder time moving the ball. Throw in the fact that when McVay had the chance to run a 2:00 minute drill to put the Cardinals away at the end of the first half, he chose to be conservative and ultimately punt it back to the Cardinals. Imagine if the Cardinals had actually shown up and he made that choice? That could have easily let the Cardinals back in the game, and I think that same coaching strategy will show up this week. When in doubt go with Brady.
Yank’s Pick: $5.50 on the Rams+3(-110)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Bucs-3 (+100)
The Buffalo Bills @ the Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday at 6:30 PM)
Sam: How do you pick a game like this? On the one hand, it feels like the Bills have been waiting for this moment and are of great value as an underdog here. On the other hand, it’s the Chiefs, and who wants to go against Mahomes? I’ve been going back and forth on this one, but have ultimately decided on the Bills. While the Chiefs dismantled the Steelers in round 1, they’ve shown us all year that something is a little off. I don’t think that something off is gone despite a rout of a team with no offense. The Bills have been waiting for this matchup the entire year and now it’s their time to show us they can dethrone the kings.
Yank: How do you pick a game like this? My take to close out this most beautiful of weeks is that you can’t, and it’s silly and counterproductive to even try. Both these teams are AWESOME. Both QBs are AWESOME. Gun to my head I’d have to ride with Mahomes, because short of one game last year where he had no O-Line, and the other team had the greatest player of all time with a cavalcade of weapons peaking at the right time, he has never lost in a big spot. Nevertheless if you like Allen and the Bills I wouldn’t blame you (and the sharps seem to be on their side). The one thing I’m confident in for this one: there will be points. I’m copping out and taking the over and enjoying the ride.
Yank’s Pick: $5.50 on Over 54.5 (-108)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Bills ML (+105)
| Yank | Sam | |
| Risk | $21.50 | $22.00 |
| Potential Earnings | $20.87 | $30.97 |
| Post-Season Record | 1-5 | 0-6 |
| Total Winnings | -$22.42 | -$30.50 |
One Last Line 