Intro by Yank
Last week we were hoping that steering hard into our takes would yield better results. Sad to say that strategy fared no better than our previous attempt in the Wild Card round. We both believed in the one seeds, and Tannehill/Rodgers both proved they didn’t deserve our support. My flip-flop on the Rams paid dividends but Sam was on the wrong side there as well. Finally, in the de facto Super Bowl the Chiefs and Bills put up points in spades, but when the Bills grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory they, unfortunately, cost Sam as well. Let’s hope our takes fare better this week, if nothing else we can take solace in the fact that fewer games mean fewer opportunities to lose.
Playoff Power Rankings
| Sam | Yank |
| 1. Chiefs 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Rams 9. 10. Bengals 11. 12. 49ers 13. 14. | 1. 2. Chiefs 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 49ers 8. Bengals 9. 10. Rams 11. 12. 13. 14. |
| Super Bowl Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers | Super Bowl Matchup: Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans |
| Winner: Green Bay Packers | Winner: Tennessee Titans |
Conference Championship Picks
The Cincinnati Bengals @ the Kansas City Chiefs-7 (Sunday at 3:00 PM)
Yank: This is a classic don’t overthink it game for me. The Chiefs are inevitable as they proved last week. Mahomes has literally never lost in the playoffs to anyone but Tom Brady. The Bengals, to put it simply, are not very good. They have done an admirable job of taking advantage when other teams hand them the game, but they do not have the horses, particularly on defense to hang with this Chiefs team. The fact that it’s a revenge spot for the Chiefs given the result a few weeks ago is icing on the cake for me. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one turns into a runaway.
Sam: It’s clear to everyone that I have no idea how to pick NFL games, so I’m going to take a stab in the dark here. I really like this Chiefs team and they were awesome last week, but this Bengals team isn’t here by accident either. They can really get after the passer and the Joe Burrow-Jamar Chase connection is special. I don’t think they have the OLine or firepower to muster a real chance in this one, but I do think they can keep it closer than most people expect. The Chiefs will have to calm down after what was a crazy walk-off win where they were 13 seconds away from losing. Mahomes and co. seem pretty good about handling adversity, but it can be really hard to get focused or come back and play again after a game like that. My Vikings had a similar miraculous play in the playoffs to make it to the NFC Championship a few years ago and they barely showed up the following week. Additionally, I think because of how exciting that game was last week, people have – rightfully so – inflated their opinions about Mahomes and the Chiefs, but this team lost to the Bengals less than 5 weeks ago. Be careful with this one.
Yank’s Pick: $5.88 on the Chiefs-6.5 (-118)
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Bengals+7 (+100)
The San Francisco 49ers @ the Los Angeles Rams-3 (Sunday at 6:30 PM)
Sam: Whether its because I have the spins from losing so many bets this postseason or the competitiveness of these games, but here I am changing my opinion at the last minute. All week I thought the 9ers are the underdog that’s going to win, and I think they have a real case to pull off the upset, but I can’t help thinking they’re the sucker bet. This 9ers offense did nothing – I repeat – nothing in Green Bay last week and maybe that’s okay because the defense and special teams did their job, but I don’t think the offense will be able to muster much against a Rams team that is stacked defensively. We saw what they were able to do against the GOAT last week in Tampa, imagine what they’ll do to dollar store Tom this week? I didn’t like the Rams and the points, so I had to tie them with the Chiefs – who I think will win – in order to get decent odds on their money line. Unfortunately for all of us, this means that I have cemented a Bengals-49ers Super Bowl for all of us to tune out.
Yank: Again I am going to ride one very specific fact for this matchup: the 49ers have won the last six times these teams have played. They are perfectly designed to beat this specific Rams team. On offense they run the ball downhill and prevent the Rams rushers from pinning their ears back. On defense they get after the QB with their D Line and are able to sit back against the play-action passes that McVay typically carves teams up with. Their fans will be out in force even though it’s technically a road game. I’m not sure they will win, but to get plus odds on this team in this specific matchup feels too good to be true.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the 49ers ML +150
Sam’s Pick: $6.00 on the Rams and Chiefs ML Parlay-101
Miscellaneous Props
$2.00 parlay on anytime TDs from Travis Kelce and CJ Uzomah (aka the TE Touchdown Parlay) +560
Sam: This prop has virtually no shot, but I thought having a parlay between two touchdown-catching Tight Ends would be a fun parlay. These two guys are awesome and should be consistent RedZone targets, should both teams actually make it to there. The fear is the Chiefs might score from too far out and the Bengals may never make it…
$2.00 parlay on Mahomes o27.5 yards rushing and a rushing touchdown (aka the Mahomes special) +500
Sam: One of my favorite bets is Mahomes over his rushing total. Yank and I did a little digging on this one and matches my intuition. Basically, he either runs for 50+ yards or for like 10. While they may be a little unheralded, the Bengals pass rush isn’t all that bad. I think they can get after him and force Mahomes out of the pocket. Much like last week’s matchup against the Bills, he will be happy to escape the pocket and gobble up chunk yards with his deep threat targets pushing the defense down the field. The cherry on top is that instead of having Blake Bell snap the ball from Goal Line, Mahomes will just sneak it in instead.
| Yank | Sam | |
| Risk | $10.88 | $14.00 |
| Potential Earnings | $12.48 | $31.13 |
| Post-Season Record | 3-7 | 0-11 |
| Total Winnings | -$22.83 | -$55.50 |
One Last Line 