While everyone was watching football, I was crushing it on NBA games. A perfect 3-0 for me last night with $9 in winnings. Every matchup turned out exactly as I anticipated: the Nuggets rolled the inconsistent Bucks, the Magic took care of an off-night Mavs, and the Spurs put up a good fight. If only it could happen like that every night!
Today’s Picks
As for tonight, it’s the last night of this shindig. I’m $6.40 away from meeting the $100 total bet mark and only $4.79 down after last night’s upswing. I feel good about my odds tonight, so hopefully, I can send this promo out on a good night with winnings to push me over the top to my free jersey.
Pick #1: $2.00 on the Miami Heat Money Line (@ the Boston Celtics) +140
I had to place another ML bet on the Heat before this promo ended. Their toughness and willingness to bring it every night makes them a perfect pick as an underdog. Unfortunately, after I bet them it was announced that Jimmy Butler would be missing the game, along with the already-out Kyle Lowry. That’s not great for my chances, but as I just laid out, their mentality – Heat Culture, if you will – doesn’t mean this bet is lost. Spoelstra will have this team ready to fight hard and they’re facing a team that hasn’t shown a lot of toughness against adversity over the last few seasons.
Pick #2: $5.00 on the Memphis Grizzlies Money Line (@ the Philadelphia 76ers) +130
It’s perfect that on the last night of writing this promo, the Grizz opened as underdogs and I had another chance to bet them. Thankfully I was able to pick their ML before Embiid was ruled out of tonight’s matchup. So now I have the Grizz plus odds against an Embiid-less 6ers team. I’ve laid out several times during the last month how Embiid is on a tear right now, so not having him has shifted the line almost 8 points in the favor of the grizzlies. With games like this, you have to worry about the trap game potential now that the one guy the team game planned to stop won’t be out there. This Grizz team has shown that it has the right mindset to not fall into that trap, so if I were you, I’d take the Grizz and the points still.
Pick #3: $3.00 on Ja Morant over 26.5 points, Desmond Bane over 2.5 threes, and Jaren Jackson Jr. over 1.5 blocks +567
The previous version of this prop bet I made covered in basically the second quarter. Ja is on a hot streak scoring 30+ the last 6 games, JJJ has the most blocks in the month of January, and Bane has had a few games since returning from COVID to get his feet wet again. There’s no reason to think this doesn’t have a good chance of covering – especially with no Embiid – and a whole lot of reasons (+567 of them in fact) to make this bet.
One Last Line 