Intro by Sam
Cheers to another Super Bowl weekend! The boys are back with a propaplooza. Like last year, Yank and I will be competing to see who can not lose the most on props. The twist is that we’re upping the money this year to $16 on props whereas last year we did $5.00 total. Why $16 you ask? Well in honor of offensive genius Sean McVay, of course. The last time Sean McVay was in the Super Bowl, the greatest offensive mind the NFL has ever known mustered 3 points in a game that ultimately had a total of 16 points scored.
Given how this post-season has gone and how we fared last year on props, you’re best to avoid our advice, but we did do a tiny bit of research this year. For the Super Bowl, It turns out Vegas is as afraid of losing on plus odds as much as the public is excited to take plus odds. With more people betting on this game than any other game during the year, Vegas will protect itself by rigging the odds against the underdogs. Consider taking minus odds this weekend and think about what bets the casinos are trying to hide. In any event, our bets will prop-aly lose so take what we have to say with a grain of salt.
Game Props
Yank: $2.16 on the Opening Kickoff To Be A Touchback -108
This pick is a good example of my strategy for the weekend. The analysis is simple, generally, kickoffs end in touchbacks at this point. No reason to be scared of minus odds for something that’s very likely to happen. Looking around a few different sportsbooks, this was mostly around -120, I found it at slightly better odds and jumped on it.
Sam: $0.50 on the first field goal to be between 44-49 yards +375
A common theme you’ll see throughout these props is that Yank and I expect these genius offensive coaches to kick a lot of field goals. I’m thinking there’s a good enough shot that somebody’s drive will stall early in the game and they’ll settle for a 44-49 yard field goal. Here’s $0.50 down the drain!
Yank: $1.80 on the first score of the game with 8:59 or less left in 1Q -120
This game feels like it will have a distinct feeling out period by each team to me. McVay will commit to the run early if they get the ball first. The Bengals will struggle with the Rams Dline. I think the 6 minutes required to elapse here for me to win could slip by in the blink of an eye.
Sam: $1.00 on the Rams to be the team with the first charged TO -120
The brilliant McVay loves a good TO for no reason. In fact, McVay has wasted more timeouts than any other coach from 2019 to 2021. How could I not take an opportunity to grab him here? Everything about this bet is on-brand for McVay and for me.
Yank: $1.60 on neither team to score a TD on their first drive -142
Another spin on my previous take: these offenses are likely to be conservative early. Also both these coaches LOVE a good field goal attempt after a long drive. For each of these last two picks, I’m happy to acknowledge a bomb to Chase or Odell is lingering to screw me, which is why these amounts are somewhat less than my other picks.
Running Back Props
Sam: $2.00 on Semaje Perine Over 1.5 Receptions -120
While I’ve completely lost all faith in myself to understand how a football game will play out this post-season my best guess is that the Bengals will commit to the run and Burrow will get the ball out quick in order to neutralize Aaron Donald and that Rams pass rush. Perine has shown he can make a play with the ball in his hands, so it seems to me that it behooves the Bengals to complete at least 2 passes to him.
Sam: $0.50 on Cam Akers First TD Scorer (of the game) +550
The Rams love to run the ball, so why not take a stab on Cam Akers to punch one as the first scorer of the game? I have a feeling that this could be a low-scoring afair, so keeping the ball on the ground with Akers gives me a higher chance of hitting this bet.
Yank: $2.10 on Joe Mixon U60.5 Rushing Yards -105
Another theme for me for this game is remembering the Titans Dline wreaking havoc on the Bengals offense. The Rams Dline is just as good if not better than the Titans. The running room should be hard for the Bengals to find, and the sharps seem to agree as this has come down from 62.5 earlier in the week.
Sam: $1.00 on Joe Mixon O60.5 Rushing Yards -110
Yank makes a lot of good points about this bet, and yet, I’m a total public bettor. My gut tells me that the Bengals will commit to the ground game even if it isn’t super successful and that Mixon can churn out 60+ yards. The Rams defense is partially designed to invite teams to run on them, so I’m going to lean into my football-takery with this one.
Sam: $1.00 on Joe Mixon Over 12.5 yards for longest reception -105
Just like my justification for the Semaje Perine Over 1.5 Receptions bet, I think there’s a decent shot that Mixon can take a screen 13 yards. Football is a game of random outcomes, so the odds of Mixon breaking one chunk screen pass seems decent.
Quarterback Props
Yank: $2.10 on Joe Burrow U277.5 Passing Yards -105
This is a pure fade the public play. People are in love with Joey Stogies and think he can do no wrong. Again, the Dline of the Rams is going to make life tough for the Bengals offense. Moreover, Burrow could have a great game and finish with 270 yards passing. Rooting for unders is lame, but the casinos are, and I’m trying to win this contest.
Sam: $0.50 on Matthew Stafford to score a TD+650
I love a quarterback to score a rushing touchdown bet. It’s honestly as simple as that. With McVay choosing to run multiple QB sneaks on one set of downs, I feel like the odds are good that he’ll try again.
Sam: $2.00 on Matthew Stafford Over 5.5 Rushing Yards -105
In addition to loving a quarterback rushing TD bet, I love betting the over on a QB’s rushing total. I felt like the obvious choice was Burrow for the rushing yards, so I zagged a little bit and took Stafford. All this bet takes is one scramble! You can do it, Stafford!
Wide Receiver Props
Sam: $2.00 on Tee Higgins Over 69.5 Receiving Yards -120
The next 4 bets are exactly the kind of bets that a public bonehead would make. Enter: public bonehead. I’m going with Tee Higgins over receiving yards because I think he’s demonstrated that he’s a good weapon for Burrow and Jalen Ramsey is going to be chasing Jamar Chase all over the field.
Sam: $0.50 on Kendall Blanton to score a TD +235
I am anticipating that everyone will be all over the big-name TD Props like Kupp, OBJ, Chase, etc. And although those guys have produced all year, I feel like giving NFL teams that made it to the Super Bowl two weeks to game plan against another team will make it harder for their first option to succeed. A low-key Tight End TD prop feels like the move.
Sam: $2.00 on Tee Higgins to score a TD +105
This bet is all about the same reasoning as the above prop and my previous Tee Higgins over 69.5 receiving yards bet. He’s not the first option, but he’s a good player that has the opportunity to step up when it matters most.
Sam: $0.50 on Odell Beckham Jr. to score 2+ TDs +650
While this basically goes against everything I just mentioned above, I do feel like there’s a slight chance we get the OBJ-I-told-you-so game. Sometimes superstars act like superstars, so I had to pull the trigger (plus it’s fun to root for).
Kicker Props
Sam: $0.50 on Evan McPherson to score first points of the game +400
Rinse and repeat: lots of field goals. Why not take a stab at Big Stones McGee to put the first points on the board? I can see it now: the Bengals receive the kick-off, muster a few 3rd down conversions, get into Rams territory, and settle for 44-49 yard field goal to open scoring for the game.
Yank: $3.00 on Evan McPherson O1.5 Field Goal Attempts -152
This might be my favorite prop bet on the board. I’ve already mentioned Zac Taylor loves (LOVES!) a field goal attempt. He was happy to kick field goals down 21 to the Chiefs, and that working out should only steel his resolve. Combine that with the fact that the Rams defense should make life hard for the Bengals and I can see many a promising driving ending with Macpherson trotting out on the field, and he doesn’t even have to make them for this bet to win! Fingers crossed Burrow can stay upright enough to get into Rams territory a few times.
Sam: $1.00 on Evan McPherson over 7.5 total points -120
McPherson has been awesome all season and Taylor loves settling for a good field goal. He can easily surpass this points total in the first half. With the number of bets we’ve placed on their being field goals and a lot of running, we’ve certainly all but locked in a high-flying, high-scoring game.
Team Props
Yank: $2.60 on the Rams O3.5 Sacks -130
If Macpherson is my favorite bet, this is my second favorite. Jeffrey Simmons had 3 sacks by himself against the Bengals two games ago. The Rams have AARON DONALD. With this bet I get Donald and the rest of the Rams fearsome edge rushers, and they could have less than half as many sacks as the Titans and I still win.
Sam: $1.00 on under 38.5 total points+400
This bet might not belong under the prop section, but I really think there’s a chance this game contains a wild amount of field goals and therefore not a lot of scoring. The 38.5 total has absolutely no math behind it, so serious gamblers with highly successful models will laugh this off. At the end of the day, betting this will help ensure a high-scoring, exciting game. You’re welcome, everyone.
MVP Props
Yank: $0.64 on Aaron Donald to win the MVP +1400
I’ll admit it, this is a stupid bet. But I couldn’t help myself, I had to throw my leftover change to get to $16 on Aaron Donald to win the MVP. I can’t get visions of Jeffrey Simmons destroying the Bengals guards out of my head. Add in that Donald is famous enough that if he has great stats the narrative element that any potential MVP needs will also be there. There is a chance, albeit a small one, for lightning to strike here.
One Last Line 