Intro by Sam
Football is back and so are your favorite blog boys from One Last Line. Heading into year 3 of this blog, we’re planning to run everything back. If you need a refresher on who we are and how One Last Line works, read the overview from our inaugural season here.
After some good-to-mild success last year, year 3 is pivotal. Will the people pick up our player option after this season? Or will we learn that it’s time to pack our bags and hit the road as failed bettors?
Let’s take a look back at how last season turned out:
| Yank | Sam | |
| Earnings | +$59.97 | -$6.34 |
| Record | 32-25-1 | 30-37-1 |
| Collaboration | 10-12-0 | 12-13 |
| Confrontation | 14-3-1 | 3-16-1 |
| Isolation | 6-9-0 | 12-7-0 |
| Thanksgiving Day | 2-1-0 | 3-1-0 |
Given how poorly we performed in Year 1 (let’s not talk about the details), Yank and I left last season like we had something figured out. Here are the strategies that got us there:
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on their side.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover the spread about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
While the strategies above are certainly what we follow, a few more cropped up last year that feels worth clearly laying out.
Updated strategies:
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
The goal this year is to run back the things that worked for us and improve on the margins. So, without further ado, here are the OLL picks for Week One of the 2022 NFL Season.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
Week 1 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Baltimore Ravens -7 @ the New York Jets
Yank: Week 1 is the best week of the year to lay down a marker on teams you believe in or go hard against teams you don’t believe in. While there is more data available than ever before, we still know almost nothing about how these teams will perform week to week until they start to play. This matchup is the perfect opportunity to do both. People are down on the Ravens based on how last season went, but I believe the Ravens are a big bounce-back candidate and one of the four best teams in the AFC. The Jets, on the other hand, stink. This line should be 9.5, and probably would be if this game was in week 5. Give me the Ravens.
Sam: Generally speaking, Yank and I try to follow the strategies laid out above. And while this matchup definitely meets some of the strategies, this one is pretty simple. The Ravens are way better than the Jets. Lamar Jackson has something to prove to get that money. They’re motivated to prove last year was more a product of injuries than talent, and to that point, they’re healthy. On the other side of the field, the Jets had a lot of hype to start the summer but slowly but surely stockpiled injury after injury. Joe Flacco is starting at QB this year. I mean… come on. How many more times do we have to bet against Joe Flacco?
Yank’s Pick: $3.93 on the Ravens-6.5 (-114)
Sam’s Pick: $5.50 on the Ravens-6.5 (-110)
The Cleveland Browns +1.5 @ the Carolina Panthers
Sam: Matt Rhule? More like Matt Drool. The Carolina Panthers have too much hype this year. Yes, I do think they have some talent, but they’ve got the wrong man at the top. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns have a more talented roster and a much better coaching staff. While Jacoby Brissett is no savior, he’s played real football games and can make some throws. I don’t need the Browns to win by a mile, I need them to win by 1.
Yank: This is a simple one folks. My first thought this week was that it could be smart to go against the Browns since Watson isn’t playing. Turns out every gambler you know had that thought, the public is overwhelmingly backing Carolina. Meanwhile, Ben McAdoo is calling their plays, Baker Mayfield is piloting the controls, and the Browns still have a stacked roster outside of Brisset at QB. This feels like a game destined to make a lot of square gamblers sad. Hopefully, I’m not one of them.
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on the Browns+1.5 (-115)
Sam’s Pick: $5.40 on the Browns ML (-108)
The New York Giants +5.5 @ the Tennessee Titans
Yank: Every year in week 1 a couple of results come through that make no sense at all. Why would anyone believe in the Giants who have no corners, questionable offensive skill talent, and a bad QB? Well, Tennessee is uniquely NOT positioned to take advantage of the Giants DBs with Tannehill behind center and a cast of no-name WRs. The Giants quietly spent the offseason investing in the OL and a modern NFL offense. This line has shifted towards the Gmen slightly as the week has gone on. I hate backing Big Blue, who has hurt me enough already the last few years, but they seem worth a flier
Sam: Who is your parlay killer of the week? New York, New York *Frank Sinatra voice*. Everyone is just penciling in another incredible Derrick Henry year and expecting a repeat performance from the AFC’s #1 seed last year. I’m a little more skeptical. The Titans flamed out of the playoffs because of very real limitations. The Titans drafted a potential replacement quarterback because of very real limitations. They’ve already lost their #1 edge rusher to injury this season which doesn’t help a unit that really struggled at times last season. Meanwhile, be wary of writing off the Giants early this season just because of the floundering they’ve done the last few years. The Giants replaced potential American Psycho candidate Joe Judge with a by all measures successful and progressive offensive-minded head coach in Brian Daboll. They have weapons on offense and the opportunity to surprise on defense. This is a classic overrated (Titans), underrated (Gmen) matchup.
Yank’s Pick: $2.50 on the Giants ML (+210)
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Giants ML (+215)
The Confrontation:
The Green Bay Packers @ the Minnesota Vikings-2
Sam: *Homer alert* I’m allllll aboard the Vikings this year. We’ve got a rejuvenated culture, a coach who has an offensive playbook from the 21st century, and a healthy defense. Throw in the fact that the Vikings have one of the best home-field advantages with US Bank stadium, and you have a recipe to challenge the receiver-less Green Bay Packers. While all of that is the dressing on top of what should be a fun mid-afternoon game, the most important factor here is the line movement. This line has consistently moved towards the Vikings since the line opened during the summer. This week alone the line has moved from Packers-1.5 to a pick ‘em. When trying to make your picks, be on the side of the sharps.
Yank: Sam’s rationale above should be enough to convince you to join me. He went 3-14-1 in this segment last year and his purple-colored glasses have blinded him to the boogeyman waiting around the corner. This Vikings team is destined to do something stupid and lose on the last play of the game, just like they always do. I don’t want it to happen, I’ll even be actively rooting against it, but when it does at least I will make some money.
The Isolation:
No Isolation picks this week due to the number of Collaboration picks we have on the board. Don’t you fret, for those of you that saw my 12-7 record last year on Iso’s, I’ll be back next week.
The Bank – Week 1
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $100.00 | $100.00 |
| Risk: | $18.93 | $19.90 |
| Potential Earnings: | $19.55 | $23.60 |
| Record: | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 