Intro by Yank
Before you do anything else click here. Join us on the money pile gang, because the boys are back. Last week literally could not have gone better as we went a collective 7-1, and one of our matchups is head-to-head! Is now the time to get on board with us, or fade us? You decide, my friends. Either way, there is money to be made this week.
The Recap
In the Collaboration our takes on the AFC North proved prophetic. We liked the Browns to beat the bad Panthers in a matchup where the wrong team seemed favored. Sure enough, we cashed in by the length of Cade York’s steel toe. We also really liked the Ravens, in a prove-it-year, to take it to the awful Jets with 10,000-year-old Joe Flacco at the helm. That one may have been the easiest victory in the history of One Last Line. Finally, outside the AFC North, we liked a flier on the Giants in a nobody-believes-in-us spot as huge underdogs. Shoutout to my new favorite Coach, Brian Daboll, for having some stones, and shoutout to fat Randy Bullock for closing it out for us with a big old miss. I will say it once, and only once, do NOT let us get hot.
(Also in The Confrontation Sam finally beat me once, good for him)
(I’m not bitter, why do you ask?)
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
Week 2 Picks
The Collaboration (3-0):
The New Orleans Saints @ The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-2.5
Yank: The sun rises in the east, summer slowly but surely changes to fall, the apples ripen on the trees, and the Saints own the Bucs. It doesn’t necessarily make sense…does it need to? The Saints have consistently held the Bucs offense down. Dennis Allen may not be a lot of things, but he’s still the guy coaching that defense. We also love dogs in division games, especially in a clear nobody-believes-in-us spot like this one. Let’s eat a W.
Sam: Like many of you, I’ve been the guy that has been burned waiting for Tom Brady to turn it around and provide the Saints with the smackdown we all expect. And yet, as Yank lays out, some things never change. Thankfully, we can change. We’ll be taking the Saints here because of a decimated Bucs OL, a distracted Brady, and a Saints offense that finally started to click in the 2nd half. Additionally, this one meets most of the criteria we set out when we’re looking at matchups: 1.) Neither of us like it (this is good because we’re bad at gambling). 2.) The public STILL likes the Bucs (some books have as much as 67% of the money on the Bucs). 3.) Division games are usually wonky, and we have the underdog.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Saints ML +122
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Saints ML +118
Tease Killer of the Week:
The Houston Texans @ The Denver Broncos-10
Yank: We are introducing a new bit this week, one that ideally will become a thing weekly, but we make no promises. The story here is that we are bad enough at gambling to have lost a lot of teasers. For the uninitiated, a teaser allows you to move a line pretty significantly in exchange for combining two teams (6 pt tease) or three teams (10 pt tease). Generally, you try to move the line so that all you need is both (or all three) teams to win the bet. Again we have lost a lot of these, which means a lot of underdogs who seemed to have no business winning won to screw us over. This week is a prime week for a 10-point tease, with several 9.5-12 point lines. We want to be on the side of the casino, so we want to identify the team who will win for no reason. In this case, we have selected the Texans, Sam will supply further detail.
Sam: In order to understand our rationale, ask yourself this question: what team has no business winning this week? Or as we like to ask, who is the tease killer of the week? Here are your teams: Falcons @ the Rams-10, Seahawks @ the 49ers-9, Texans @ the Broncos-10, Bears @ the Packers-10, Titans @ the Bills-10. Maybe you think the Bills? Why on earth would they lose? Well, while you might be right, this process isn’t about finding the best team and saying they’re going to lose. It’s about finding the team you feel the most comfortable with locking in your tease. The Bills are certainly the best of this bunch and they’re coming off of extra rest, but they are not the tease killer. Then you might say, well what about the Rams? The Rams are definitely a good candidate, but we ruled them out because of Sean McVay and championship-level players. Maybe then you say, the Packers? Certainly, the Bears had an impressive victory and the Packers have no receivers. Well, you’re not wrong, but the Packers also have Aaron Rogers aka “Mr. R-E-L-A-X” and there is hardly anything to take away from a Bears victory against the 9ers in a monsoon. How about the 49ers? Read above. There are no lessons to be learned from the 49ers in Week 1 (except that maybe we should bet against unproven QBs in week 1 of the season).
That leaves us with the Broncos. Sure, they’re coming off an emotional loss, which we don’t love, but they have to win right? And it’s against the Texans. The Texans stink! Right? Right!?! Right!?!?!? Not so fast. Do we have any proof that Nathaniel Hackett (the Broncos HC, if you needed a reminder like me) is a good coach? Are we sure that Davis Mills is horrible? Does any of this make any sense? No probably not, but then again, that’s what this whole exercise is. Trying to find a team that is favored by 10 points (10 whole points!) that will let a teaser down. This week, we’re going against the Broncos (and with the Texans).
Yanks pick: $2.00 on the Texans ML (+390)
Sam’s pick: $2.00 on the Texans ML (+360)
The Confrontation (Yank 0-1, Sam 1-0):
Sam: I cannot tell a lie: I am nervous about this one. I finally got a victory against Yank in the Confrontation, in what feels like my first in several years. So maybe I’m nervous about the idea that I will never pick the right team against Yank, or maybe it’s backing the Browns for the second week in a row, when I should just be grateful they even helped me go 4-0 last week in the first place. Nevertheless, there are some principles behind this one. I had the line open at Browns-4.5, but that got pushed all the way up to Browns -6.5. Not only that, but as of earlier this week, the money was pretty close to 50/50, so that makes me think the line movement came from the Sharps. And while this isn’t a principle, I watched Joe Flacco play with my own eyes last week and good lord was he terrible. I mean, after the first quarter, I texted Yank and our resident Raven’s fan (what’s up, Tevin?) that Flacco had at least 4 turnover-worthy plays in the first 15 minutes of football. The Browns’ defense is still loaded and they should be able to take advantage there.
Yank: This is one of my old-school selections. I’m flipping against the Browns this week now that everyone has liked them since they won. Jacoby Brissett still stinks. On the outside, it seems like the Jets have no chance to score. But they also potentially have an awesome defense. 6.5-7 is A LOT of points, especially in a rock fight between terrible QBs. The bet here is that this game finishes something like 17-13. The Jets likely never contend, and may even score late to get within the number. I’m just trying to slide by on a total dirtbag selection, but again, casinos win money on stupid shit like this all the time. Why shouldn’t I?
Yank’s Pick: $4.75 on the Jets+7 (-120)
Sam’s Pick: $4.40 on the Browns-6.5 (-110)
The Isolation:
The Tennessee Titans @ The Buffalo Bills-10
Yank: This is another big Week 1 swing pick. The Titans lost to the Giants, who stink, so now everyone hates them. They were the one seed a year ago. Conversely, you couldn’t look better than the Bills did last week. They’re awesome, this is nothing against them, but 10 is a ton of points. I expect Tennessee to slow the game down, hand the ball off a lot, and hang around. I truly wouldn’t be shocked if they won, but covering 10 should be well within the realm of possibility.
Yank’s Pick: $5.50 on the Titans+10 (-110)
The New England Patriots @ the Pittsburgh Steelers
Sam: I’m going with more of a principles pick here. Our principles suggest that we take underdogs, so this is a slight test on how the principles work with favorites, but I think this should turn out alright. Yank shared where the money was on certain books, and the Steelers came out at an enormous 62% as an underdog. Not only that but it’s moved from Pats -1/1.5 range all the way to Pats -2.5 despite the money backing the Steelers. This has to be Sharps. I think everyone is overreacting to the Patriots dismal performance against the Dolphins and overinflating a Steelers victory that really wasn’t all that convincing if you watched the full 75 minutes. The Steelers were +5 in the turnover battle and still should’ve lost multiple times! Now take out an MVP-level player in TJ Watt and running a hobbled Najee Harris through a bad OL, and I think the Patriots can get stave off the “Patriots are horrible” talk for another week.
Sam’s Pick: $5.50 on the Patriots-2.5 (-110)
The Bank – Week 2
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $117.45 | $118.60 |
| Risk: | $17.25 | $16.90 |
| Potential Earnings: | $22.86 | $22.10 |
| Record: | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 2-1 | 1-0 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 
