Intro by Sam
It was a real letdown of a performance from the boys last week. Every season you take some lumps along the way. We’re banking on last week being a blip on the radar and turning things around for Week 3.
The Recap
Let’s take a look back at what went wrong. In the Collaboration, we had the right team picked – the Saints – for about 2.5 to 3 quarters when things finally unraveled. The Bucs defense ultimately proved too much and served up a back-breaking performance. In our other Collaboration pick, the Tease Killer of the Week’s debut, we were again on the right team/matchup. The Texans were right there until the last few minutes. Really, that’s all you can ask when you’re taking a team that’s a 10-point underdog. If we keep identifying the competitive game of those big-spread matchups, we’ll win a few more bucks than we lose.
Yank got back on track in the Confrontation, taking this one from me when the Browns decided to shit themselves on live TV. How do you leave someone wide open for a 70-yard bomb in prevent defense?! Well as Yank would say “it’s the Browns.”
Finally, I had the only right pick of the Isolation picks this week. The Pats delivered – albeit barely – against the offense-less Steelers. The strategies were behind that pick and played true for me. Yank took a flier on the Titans (vs. the Bills) thinking that they were a professional football team. Welp it turns on Derrick Henry is washed and Tannehill has fully turtled.
With all that covered, it’s time for Week 3!
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
Week 3 Picks
The Collaboration (3-2):
The Buffalo Bills @ The Miami Dolphins+5.5
Sam: We settled on the Dolphins?? Over the Bills??? I’m still in shock that I let Yank talk me into this matchup, but that’s kind of the thing we’re going for. As we’ve explained before – we’re bad at gambling. If we pick games based on our gut, we’d pick a lot of favorites and lose a lot of money. The Dolphins have shown that they have the weapons to compete and dare I say, be good? The likelihood that the Bills go 17-0 is slim and this good Dolphins team is one of those teams that have the talent to take a shot at adding one of the few losses to the Bills record.
Yank: This is definitely a shot-in-the-dark pick, with a little tease killer potential mixed in for flavor. Does it make any sense to go against the Bills? Probably not. They have looked unstoppable-but that’s led to every idiot gambler on earth backing them. They could all be right, but, is that how it usually works? Meanwhile, the Dolphins seem to be a good, if not great team, this game is in Miami where it should be HOT and division matchups are generally funky as we’ve said 1000 times. Buffalo is also missing four defensive starters this week due to injury. The Bills could go 17-0 this year, but if they don’t, this is the type of spot where they could go down.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Dolphins ML +190
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Dolphins ML +190
The Confrontation (Yank 1-1, Sam 1-1):
Sam: We’ve got an underdog – check. We’ve got line movement towards the underdog – check. We’ve got a team nobody believes in – check. I’m trying to steer closer to the strategies when picking teams for the Confrontation so I don’t get blown out this year and the Panthers fit the bill this week. Not only are they an underdog, but there are some on-the-field matchups that seem to favor them this week too. Besides the other teams starting QB having a broken back, it turns out that Baker isn’t that bad of a QB when he isn’t pressured. The Saints are one of the worst teams this year at generating pressure on the QB. I’m hoping that, despite all of the bad energy I’ve just placed on the Panthers, Baker will pick apart that secondary and score enough points to get me back on the winning side.
Yank: This pick is a pure “anti-revenge” bet this week. We lost on the Saints last week and they looked terrible at the end. Typically that makes you want to go against them the following week. Everyone also seems to love Carolina in this matchup for reasons I don’t fully understand. Continuing to go against the Panthers as a team with a bad QB, bad OC, and first head coach fired potential l is something I will happily do.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Saints-2.5 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $4.40 on the Panthers+2.5 (-110)
The Isolation (Yank 0-1, Sam 1-0):
The Kansas City Chiefs @ The Indianapolis Colts+5.5
Yank: *Whispers* I kinda like the colts this week. That’s right, just your friendly neighborhood guy telling you to bet against the Bills and the Chiefs this week. The overreaction against the Colts couldn’t be stronger after getting blown out in Jacksonville. Meanwhile, the Chiefs just keep chugging along. Indy gets their top WRs back and the game is Indianapolis. I think the Chiefs will probably win, but the Colts will need to show some heart or Frank Reich’s seat will start to get warm. I think they keep it close.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Colts+6(-120)
The Green Bay Packers @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-1.5
Sam: Once again, I’m trying to stay close to the strategies. The Packers opened the week as 3-point underdogs and the line moved as low as a pick ‘em. When it got that low, I grabbed a higher line from another book. The line has settled down to about +1/1.5 but that’s still a fair bit of the line movement we love to see here at OLL. Furthermore, the Bucs have injuries all over the place and have yet to score over 20 points. I expect Rodgers to remember how this game went down a few years ago, limit the turnovers, and put a bow on another perfect week for your boy.
Sam’s Pick: $6.12 on the Packers ML (-102)
The Bank – Week 3
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $106.45 | $117.20 |
| Risk: | $15.00 | $14.52 |
| Potential Earnings: | $18.21 | $17.60 |
| Record: | 4-4 | 5-3 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 3-2 | 2-1 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 