Intro by Yank
September turns to October; the warm winds of summer give way to the crisper air of autumn. Ladies and gentlemen, it may be cooling down outside, but your boys are heating up. Week three came through in spades even if only one member of the blogging duo was bold enough to give out both the Bills and the Chiefs to go down last week, but I am getting ahead of myself…
The Recap
As expected the heat in Miami played a tremendous factor in the Collaboration. At one point Stefon Diggs needed two IVs at the same time to attempt to stave off full-body cramps. That’s one IV per bet from us that came through on the Dolphins Moneyline. Every time you see that video of Ken Dorsey destroying the coaches box like a lunatic, imagine us celebrating.
In the Confrontation Sam called it all the way: it turns out betting on a QB with several broken backbones is just never a good idea. Even Matt Rhule and Ben McAdoo can’t mess that one up. Finally, in the Isolation, we both rode the principles to another victory. Sam correctly identified that the Bucs injuries and suspensions would be too much to overcome against the Pack, while I jumped on the Colts bandwagon when all looked lost and thankfully the Chiefs totally looked past the game in Indy and could not rally late to save themselves. Join us on the winds of change in week 4.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
Week 4 Picks
The Collaboration (4-2):
The Tennessee Titans @ the Indianapolis Colts-3.5
Sam: This pick has a lot of stink coming from it. First, Yank already got away with one last week when the Colts covered against the Chiefs. Second, despite winning the game, EPA demonstrated that they were not all that great and should have in fact lost that game. Nevertheless, we decided to go with the Colts this week. Not only is the public all over the Titans for some reason (I mean, come on. The Titans?), but the Colts are getting a little line movement too. That’s a recipe the boys here at OLL love. Additionally, after their week 2 stomping at the hands of the Jaguars, Yank and I agreed that we would not be the ones to pronounce the Colts dead. It worked in Week 3, we’re counting on it for Week 4.
Yank: You might have caught my Scorpions reference above, this is Scorpion Sunday for me. The Colts are still favored to win the AFC South. Read that sentence again. Vegas and the gambling community still believe the Colts are venomous. They still have a great OL and Jonathon Taylor. They still have an above-average defense. The signs have not been great the first few weeks, they have failed the eye test, even in a victory against the Chiefs. Sometimes a team can hide the stinger initially, but they are still poised to strike. This team is talented, this team is well coached, and this team is playing a Titans squad that may flat-out stink. Throw in the fact that a huge portion of the gambling public likes the Titans as Sam mentioned and I’ll happily take the Colts to claw one out again this week.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Colts-3 (-135)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Colts-3 (-130)
Tease Killer of the Week (1-1):
The Jacksonville Jaguars @ the Philadelphia Eagles-6.5
Yank: One of our best strategies continues to be fighting against the tide of overreactions as I mentioned above. So what do we do about two teams who are both riding a giant wave of good feelings after multiple dominant wins? We follow another one of our principles and we jump on the underdog. Are the Eagles going undefeated? Unlikely. Are the Jags potentially coming in with the better coach and QB? Tougher to answer than you’d think. Plus, it’s a revenge spot for Pederson. Plus, people everywhere will have the Eagles in teasers given where this line ended up. That’s too many factors in our favor. DUUUUUUVAL.
Sam: What’s not to love about betting against the Eagles? Oh, wait, hardly anything. The Eagles seem unstoppable. They’ve got the weapons, QB, OLine, and defense. What more could you ask for? Well, this bet isn’t about finding a weakness in the Eagles, but more about the idea we’ve laid out the last 2 weeks: the tease killer. Last week, we took the Dolphins as our Collaboration and Tease Killer of the Week because they were a good-to-great team in their own right going against a team that everyone thought was unbeatable. This is much the same here. Don’t call me a believer in the Jaguars yet. They’ve beaten the Colts and a season-from-hell Chargers team. That being said, they’ve demonstrated enough to merit a flier on them this week.
Yank’s Pick: $2.55 on the Jaguars ML (+235)
Sam’s Pick: $2.55 on the Jaguars ML (+235)
The Confrontation (Yank 1-2, Sam 2-1):
Sam: Hold on one second, I think I might be sick… Yes, I am betting on the Geno Smith-led, Pete Carroll-coached Seahawks team. There’s nothing to like about the Seahawks. They stink. But, sometimes stinky teams cover the spread. In this case, I’m relying on the strategies to lead me. The Seahawks have a higher percentage of money, while the Lions have a higher percentage of tickets. That demonstrates the Lions are the public team (read Yank’s section for further evidence). Throw in the fact that the Lions are without their best playmaker and starting running back and the line has moved in the direction of the Seahawks (albeit probably because of the injuries), then I’m holding my nose and placing this bet. Last year, I kept offering Yank my opinions on who I thought would win and he capitalized to a tune of 13 wins and 3 losses in the Confrontation. I’m trying to base my picks almost solely on the strategies this year, especially if it means I hate every bet I make this season.
Yank: This one is simple folks. If you put the Lions in some Titans jerseys (or any other generic team) people would LOVE them. The Titans are a good comp because it is the exact same recipe, an A+ offensive line supporting a dominant run game. A scrappy defense that is well coached across the board with multiple high draft picks in key positions. Shaky QB who can’t win you a game on his own. People like to laugh about Dan Campbell but one thing is certain: his team will be tough and will play physical. The Lions are a battering ram (they lead the league in touchdowns scored!), particularly at home. Seattle, to put it quite simply, sucks. The line movement and sharp money against the Lions this week is based on injuries to key players. D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown will unquestionably be missed but Jamaal Williams and the Lions WR depth are both capable fill-ins. The question you have to ask yourself is, why won’t this game be like the 27-7 beat-down that good old Geno and Seattle took at the hands of the 49ers, who pounded the ball down their throat? Quite simply, on Scorpions Sunday the Lions are going to Rock Them Like A Hurricane.
Yank’s Pick: $5.50 on the Lions-3.5 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $4.40 on the Seahawks+3.5 (-110)
The Isolation (Yank 1-1, Sam 2-0):
The Washington Commanders @ The Dallas Cowboys-3
Yank: Congrats to the Cowboys for pulling out all the stops to barely beat my hapless Giants last week. Admittedly, I hate Dallas, so there is some risk in this pick, but here are the reasons to want to go against them this week:
- The line has moved against them in favor of the Commanders even as a huge percentage of the bets come in on Dallas. We love reverse line movement on this blog
- Mike McCarthy may be the worst coach in the NFL
- As we like to mention division games are always weird, Washington definitely stinks but they should be able to hang around against an opponent they know well.
- Cooper Rush going 3-0 as a starter seems impossible?
- Washington can lose at the gun in heartbreaking fashion and we can still win this bet.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Commanders+3.5 (-118)
The Kansas City Chiefs @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers PK
Sam: This is another bet fully aligned with the strategies despite some real concerns. On the concerns side of things, the Chiefs are coming off of a loss. Uh oh. They usually win 13 games a season, meaning that they don’t drop two in a row regularly. Also, the Bucs offense has been miserable through 3 games. They have yet to score more than 21 points once this season. These are not things you’d like to see when picking the Bucs to beat the Chiefs. Nevertheless, we are here for a reason. The public loves the Chiefs in this one. They have the majority of tickets with everyone thinking that this is a bounce-back game. Not so fast my friends. The Chiefs have all of the public love and yet, the line has moved 2.5 points towards the Bucs. This game opened on Monday Chiefs-2.5 and it’s now a pick ‘em. Even with hurricane damages impacting the players in Tampa and not knowing where the game would be played, the line has moved tremendously towards the Bucs. This is a ‘strategies’ play through and through, so I’m hoping this bet hits like the rest of the strategy picks have so far this season.
Sam’s Pick: $4.40 on the Bucs Moneyline (-110)
The Bank – Week 4
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $115.65 | $134.80 |
| Risk: | $18.05 | $16.35 |
| Potential Earnings: | $18.93 | $17.83 |
| Record: | 6-5 | 8-3 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 4-3 | 3-1 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 