Intro by Sam
Not a good run for the boys last week. We certainly weren’t proud of our picks, but we stand by our process. Look, when favorites are going to cover more than 50% of the games (they went 9-7), it’s always going to be a tough week. But hey, those weeks are usually few and far between.
The Recap
Let’s get through the forgettable picks from last week quickly so we can move on to Week 5. Our Colts pick looked brilliant for a total of 0 seconds against a rejuvenated Derrick Henry. Washed Matt Ryan is a fatal flaw we must remember. The Tease Killer of the Week (TKOW) pick was close. The Jags ripped open a 14-0 lead but little did we know, Hurts and the Eagles have nerves of steel. In the Confrontation, I secured yet another W, surpassing my win total from last season. It was a no-brainer to pick against a team that Yank liked (the Lions – keep a note of this team) and line movement towards my Seahawks (aka against his opinion – what a square, am-I-right?).
Meanwhile, in the Isolation, Yank and I doubled up on the losses. I knew my Bucs wouldn’t cover as soon as they fumbled the opening kickoff giving the Chiefs excellent field position. While Yank once again bet with his heart (can you call it betting with your heart when you bet against a team you hate?). The Cowboys demolished the Commanders – in fact, I heard Wentz is still hanging on to the ball in the pocket right now!
Alas, you win some and you lose some. Here’s to winning some in Week 5!
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
Week 5 Picks
The Collaboration (4-3):
The San Francisco 49ers-6.5 @ the Carolina Panthers
Sam: This one popped up to me at the beginning of the week as one to keep an eye on. I don’t like the Panthers, and should be thanking my lucky stars I’m plus money on them already, but I wanted to see where this line ended up. This has all the makings of a classic: “oh they stink, the other team is good, this should be no problem, let’s throw the 9ers in a tease!” Well, the boys at One Last Line are here to tell you, that’s where you go wrong. Not only is giving professional teams points a dangerous proposition, but the 9ers are also particularly depleted this week ruling out 2 defensive linemen, 2 offensive linemen, 1 DB, 1 RB, and 1 TE. The 9ers are a good team, but no team is just loaded with depth.
Yank: I am likely the worst gambler you know. The great news is I hate this pick. I think Carolina is dead. They got killed by Arizona, who stinks, last week. Meanwhile, the 49ers blew out the Rams on national TV. So what gives with this pick? It’s a classic stock-up (9ers) vs stock-down (Panthers) matchup. The line is in the tease-able zone of 6ish points. San Francisco is flying coast to coast for this game after a Monday night game, which we always hate. Every week a team who feels like a lock just to win loses or looks terrible. Your friend who just opened his FanDuel account probably loves the Niners. Hopefully, that’s enough to get us off the schneid.
Yank’s Pick: $5.20 on the Panthers+7.5(-130) and $1.90 on the Panthers ML (+235)
Sam’s Pick: $4.40 on the Panthers+6.5 (-110)
Tease Killer of the Week (1-2):
The New York Giants @ the Green Bay Packers-8
Yank: Have you ever watched a normal London game? They’re almost like Thursday night in terms of the quality, or lack thereof, of football. If you put the Packers in Bears uniforms everyone would be incredibly skeptical. The QB play has been solid but the skill players are mediocre to bad and the defense has shown obvious difficulties against the run. Enter Saquon Barkley. I’m a homer but Brian Daboll has had the boys ready to play week in and week out. The sexy pick is to underthink this and take the Pack. I think the casinos are banking on the Giants to surprise. Worth a flier on an early Sunday morning.
Sam: Let’s go G-MEN *clap* *clap* *clap-clap-clap*! Yet another matchup I had my eye on to start the week. I texted Yank after the London game last week, that if the Packers open as more than a TD favorite in London, we have to go against them. Now, I don’t really like betting *against* teams, but the Packers have yet to demonstrate that they’re a significantly better team than the rest of the NFC. They managed a TD+ margin of victory over the Bears (who are dreadful), but that game wasn’t a walk-away cover. Throw in the Giants run game and the London element, you have a recipe for a surprise outcome overseas.
Yank’s Pick: $1.94 on the Giants ML (+310)
Sam’s Pick: $4.40 on the Giants+8 (-110) and $2.50 on the Giants ML (+300)
Tease Killer Of The Week (bonus):
The Detroit Lions @ the New England Patriots-3
Sam: BOOOOOONNNNNUUUUUUUSSSSSS! I’m probably a fool for this one, but Yank (yes, Yank the square) talked me into this one. I’ll let Yank fawn over the Lions, so I’ll cover the Pats: The Patriots are starting a 3rd string QB. Have we gotten burned by this strategy? Of course, but we couldn’t help ourselves. Additionally, we are trying to hold firm to some of our early-season beliefs, and one of those is that the Patriots actually stink. The nepotistic (is that a word?) coaching staff has failed to deliver thus far, so I’m not sure where all of the Pats love is coming from after falling to a team that as Yank and I laid out above, doesn’t seem to be all that impressive in its own right. Thus, we’re going to back the Lions one more time.
Yank: I am bad at gambling and you should fade this pick. I said it. Stop reading. Go log in and bet on the Pats. I’ll wait. I can’t quit Dan Campbell. I can’t quit the league’s most explosive offense (go check that claim out, it’s true, I’ll wait). Bill Belichick’s son is his DC. Matt Patricia is his OC. Bailey Zappe is his QB. The old days of relying on the Pats are over. This is a classic One Last Line 50-50 game. At worst these teams are equal. We can get plus money on the Lions. If you made it this far, take it, and curse me later when they lose by one.
Yank’s Pick: $3.38 on the Lions ML (+148)
Sam’s Pick: $3.00 on the Lions ML (+144)
The Confrontation (Yank 1-3, Sam 3-1):
The Atlanta Falcons @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-10
Yank: When in doubt return to the principles. Division games are weird and they tend towards regression to the mean. Bad teams generally look better and good teams generally look worse against an opponent they see twice a year. As such, if you can get double digits in a division game it’s close to a blind auto bet for me. There’s even more reason to like it when the underdog in question loves to run the ball and isn’t afraid to pound the rock 14 straight times like the Falcons did last week. Ideally, they will limit possessions and maximize their time of possession. Regular joes continue to love Brady and the Bucs but they have done very little to inspire confidence. Let’s take the Falcons to surprise some folks.
Sam: I have to admit, I kinda like the Falcons this season. I like Mariota. I think they’re frisky. So why am I not picking them with such a lopsided line? Well, a number of reasons. On the Falcons side of things, they’re piling up injuries at key spots. They’ll be without Pitts and Flash this Sunday, and while Pitts hasn’t shown a whole lot this season, that’s one less weapon the Bucs defense has to worry about. And speaking of the Bucs defense, they’re very good. They can pressure the QB and stop the run. There’s not a whole lot left for an offense if the defense can successfully do those things. Not only is the Bucs defense good, but I guarantee there will be a motivated Tom Brady on the other side of the ball. The Bucs are coming off 2 losses and dismal offensive performances. This is a get-right game for Brady and the Bucs offense. And finally, the main reason I agreed to this matchup, is Yank liked the Falcons in this one despite the line moving 2 points towards the Bucs. The Bucs opened as 8-point favorites and are now anywhere from 10 to 10.5-point favorites. I’m banking on a beatdown.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Falcons+10.5 (-118)
Sam’s Pick: $3.30 on the Buccaneers-10 (-110)
The Isolation (Yank 1-2, Sam 2-1):
The Tennessee Titans @ the Washington Commanders PK
Sam: With my last magic pick, I’ll make you think I’m betting on the Commanders. Oh shit, I’m actually betting on the Commanders. How did this happen? Weirdly enough, the public loves Tennessee – they’re getting as much as 75% of the tickets in some books. The weirdness doesn’t stop there, though. Despite having most of the money, the line has moved toward the Commanders. The opening line on Caesars was Titans-2.5 and it’s now a pick’em. How do you make sense of that? Well, as we’ve pointed out time and time again, that’s got the smell of sharps. Strategy picks aren’t full-proof, but this is about as on-the-nose as far as strategy picks go. So this weekend, I’m betting the Commanders, not watching a second of this miserable matchup, and praying for that sweet, sweet $4.00 payout.
Sam’s Pick: $4.28 on the Commanders+1.5 (-107)
The Bank – Week 5
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $97.60 | $126.85 |
| Risk: | $17.04 | $21.88 |
| Potential Earnings: | $23.16 | $26.70 |
| Record: | 6-9 | 9-6 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 4-6 | 4-2 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 