Intro by Sam
This week is all about getting back on course with the strategies. We’ve had some strategy picks not go our way and a few gut picks – that we try not to make – also not go our way. Nevertheless, we’ve hit on some key bets to keep us afloat, so we’re trying to hone in and get back to winnings this week.
The Recap
It was not a glamorous week for the boys last week, but we minimized damages and lived to fight another day. Let’s start with the bad and finish with the good. Two of our three Collaboration/TKOW picks were absolute drubbings. The Lions might as well have been the British by how badly they got beat by the Patriots last week and the Panthers performed so poorly against the 49ers that their shitty coach got canned. And while it wasn’t a drubbing in the score, watching Carson Wentz deliberately throw the football to the other team on 3 straight plays from the 2-yard line to win the game, was a drubbing to my brain and my bet on the Commanders+1.5 against the Titans.
In the Confrontation, Yank once again got the better of me, in what was a super lame back door cover. The Falcons didn’t even score points until the 4th quarter! It’s cool, I’m not mad or anything (mutters *F@#K*).
Finally on to the good news. In what was a crowning achievement, or absolute gem of a pick by the boys, Yank and I nailed the Giants over the Packers in a weird London game. In fact, I hit on both the spread and the ML, which helped buoy my week. Considering that I went 1 for 5 in predicting games, I only net a loss of about $3.00 thanks to Saquon and Co. This demonstrates that our TKOW strategy will really help pay dividends if we can balance out the rest of our tickets. On to Week 6!
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
Week 6 Picks
The Collaboration (Yank 5-7; Sam 6-6):
The Buffalo Bills-2.5 @ the Kansas City Chiefs
Sam: The Chiefs at home as underdogs? Here’s my money. I mean look, the Bills are definitely outstanding this year. They’ve scored a ton of points, added Von Miller to their pass rush, and might just be the Super Bowl favorites. That being said, it’s not like they’ve been unbeatable. They lost to the Dolphins and arguably should have lost to the Ravens. Both of those teams are in a similar tier with the Chiefs in terms of talent and coaching, so why not get the Chiefs on the rare occasion that they’re plus money?
Yank: This is such a no-brainer, it will definitely lose. That being said, by any metric these teams are even. Maybe Buffalo is slightly better? This line implies Buffalo would be favored by 5 on a neutral field and 7.5 in Buffalo. That is flat-out bonkers. As Sam said we will take the Chiefs at plus money and not think twice about it.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Chiefs ML +120
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Chiefs ML+115
Tease Killer of the Week (2-3):
The San Francisco 49ers-5.5 @ the Atlanta Falcons
Yank: I’ll come right out and say it, we like the Falcons here. This is two weeks in a row for me on the Falcons and against the 49ers, which is always risky. That being said, this feels like one of those classic spots where the worst gambler you know likes San Fran to win. Nevertheless, weird stuff happens every week and this one feels like it has a chance to be a head-scratcher. The 9ers are coming back west to east for a 1 pm kickoff. Atlanta plays HARD every snap of every game. Jimmy G low-key has kinda stunk all year. If this turns into the inevitable slopfest this bet could start to look better and better.
Sam: As everyone knows – which makes this play dangerous – the Falcons are 5-0 ATS so far this season. This is despite the Falcons being 2-3 overall. This makes them the perfect One Last Line team. Each week it is almost always easier to look at a favorite and say “oh yeah, that team is way better they should easily win and cover.” The thing is, they might win but not cover. This Falcons team is that team that no one liked to start the season but has been sneakily competitive all season. With them going up against a team traveling from west to east in back-to-back weeks and still struggling with some key injuries, we think the Falcons can sneak one in here.
Yank’s Pick: $4.00 on the Falcons ML+200
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Falcons ML+200
The Confrontation (Yank 2-3, Sam 3-2):
The Dallas Cowboys @ the Philadelphia Eagles-6.5
Yank: I am going to bet against the Cowboys with vigor here. And yes, that is typically a terrible strategy, but in this case, both my heart and my head are in it. The Eagles have been great all year and are not getting enough respect with this line. Especially in a game where Micah Parsons may not play, or may be limited. The Cowboys have been a great story but their defense has been their calling card. They may get called upon one too many times this week. The Phillies knocked out the Braves yesterday, they may need to start getting out the grease for the light poles today. This one could get ugly.
Sam: Yank hates the Cowboys and thinks they have no business being good this year, especially with Cooper Rush. I’m not here to tell you that I think the Cowboys are good or not, but when someone bets on their beliefs in this blog it is usually a sign that they’re going to lose that bet. Hence, my betting on the Cowboys. In all fairness, the Eagles are a very good football team, definitely the class of the NFC. But the last few weeks it’s felt like they’ve been angling for a loss with close wins over the Cardinals and Jaguars and it’s not like they’re going to go 17-0. So why not a loss or at least another close game to the Cowboys? It’s a division game, we like those to be close, and the Cowboys defense has been actually really good. They have some studs on defense that could make things difficult for Hurts. This is probably all a crapshoot, but I’m rolling the dice on another improbable Cowboys win.
Yank’s Pick: $6.00 on the Eagles-5.5 (-120)
Sam’s Pick: $2.20 on the Cowboys+6.5 (-110) and $2.00 on the Cowboys ML+240
The Isolation (Yank 1-2, Sam 2-2):
The Carolina Panthers @ the Los Angeles Rams-10
Sam: Yes, yes, I can already hear you saying, “the Panthers? Again?” Well, unfortunately, yes. Listen, I don’t know that this will actually hit, but I can’t help but think a new coach, no more Baker Mayfield, may give the Panthers that one-week defibrillator that teams sometimes get when there’s a big in-season change. Not to mention that they’re going up against a Rams team that doesn’t have a whole lot going for it. I kinda like PJ Walker and I think the Panthers defense has some skill players to get after Stafford. At the end of the day, this is by definition a flier, so if it doesn’t work, what’s $2 down the drain?
Sam’s Pick: $2.00 on the Panthers ML+400
The Bank – Week 6
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $97.37 | $123.37 |
| Risk: | $15.00 | $16.20 |
| Potential Earnings: | $19.00 | $30.55 |
| Record: | 8-12 | 11-10 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 5-7 | 5-5 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 