Intro by Yank
Last week was another weekend that gave us confidence in the process. We’re giving ourselves a chance to come up big each and every week. Sam has built up a bank to take some chances with, I need to keep stacking up small victories to get to the same level. No Philly bets this week, but the process rolls on.
The Recap
In The Collaboration, we both liked the Chiefs as dogs at home. They got a chance to drive the field for the win and ultimately didn’t come through, but we got to the final minute with a chance. In Atlanta, we got to the final minute with way more than a chance as the Falcons ground and pounded the 49ers into submission. The Tease Killer of the Week has come through for us time and again this year. Have to love a 2-1 underdog pulling off a never-a-doubt victory. Speaking of never-a-doubt victories, I always love watching the Cowboys get killed. The Eagles made me nervous for a second in the fourth quarter but ultimately came through for me leaving Sam sad in The Confrontation. Finally, in The Isolation, Sam took a chance on the Panthers with a little addition-by-subtraction theory against what had been a lifeless Rams team. Unfortunately, it doesn’t take much life to take down McAdoo and the Panthers. This week, for the first time in three weeks we avoid the Panthers, hopefully to everyone’s benefit.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
Week 7 Picks
The Collaboration (Yank 6-8; Sam 7-7):
The Houston Texans @ the Las Vegas Raiders-7
Yank: We have made some hay while the sun has shined on some teams that are better than their reputations. For me, in the last two weeks, that team has been the Falcons. This week it is the Houston Texans. They have been so bad the past few seasons that they get zero benefit of the doubt. That said Lovie Smith has the defense playing average at worst, and two weeks ago Dameon Pierce averaged the most yards after contact of any running back in the league. Not sure what the Raiders have done to support the idea they should be a seven-point favorite against…anyone, but the bet here is that Houston is better than people think, with a real shot to win this game outright.
Sam: I’m with Yank on this one. The Texans fit the script for teams we like here on OLL. They’re a team that nobody likes or would ever want to bet on in a million years. And despite undoubtedly finishing the season with a losing record, I won’t be shocked when the Texans are at least .500 ATS. This plays into a matchup like this. Everyone is waiting for this Raiders team to turn the corner. They have so much talent and *should* be better than their record. And yet, should they? I mean, the talent definitely makes me nervous in this one, but I mean, come on. The Raiders have Josh McDaniels at Head Coach and Derek Carr at QB. Placing expectations on those guys is nightmare fuel. Throw in the fact that the Texans are coming off of the bye, and I like our chances.
Yank’s Pick: $5.50 on the Texans+7 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $4.40 on Texans+7 (-110) and $2.00 on the Texans ML (+260)
Tease Killer of the Week (3-3):
Yank: This is a classic underthink pick. The Ravens have not been able to put anyone away all year. The Browns have not exactly covered themselves in glory the past few weeks, but they still have a talented defense and one of the best rushing attacks in the league. As we’ve referenced many times, division games are often chaotic, and generally close. There’s a chance the Browns win outright for no reason. Even if this is a contest the Ravens hold well in hand from beginning to end the backdoor cover potential is quite high. Let’s hold our nose and take the Browns.
Sam: To Yank’s point, this one smells bad. I hate the idea of betting the browns because they’ve fumbled the bag so many times. It feels like a no brainer that they’ll screw this game up somehow too. That being said, as we talked about the game during the week, it feels like the Browns will mess this one up by not winning it at the end. The Browns will have a chance to win at the end but somehow manage to lose on some last second field goal. If that’s the case, the browns still cover. We’re going with the math that this game ends with the Ravens winning by 2-3.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Browns+7 (-122)
Sam’s Pick: $4.24 on the Browns+6.5 (-106)
The Confrontation (Yank 3-3, Sam 3-3):
The Kansas City Chiefs-1 @ the San Francisco 49ers
Yank: Let’s close it out with a One Last Line special. What on god’s green earth is going on with this point spread? We’re talking about the Kansas City Chiefs, right, not the Charleston Chiefs? How are they favored by less than a field goal against the walking wounded San Francisco 49ers. I want to back Mahomes and Reid in this game with every fiber of my being. Thus, in classic OLL fashion, I’m taking the 49ers. Steer into the weird spread people; betting on my gut instinct to be wrong is generally a lot more lucrative than betting against Vegas.
Sam: I won’t lie to you. This is a completely blind bet. There is nothing strategies related to this pick. In fact, the line has moved tremendously towards the 9ers. It started out 9ers+3 and is now 9ers+1. Usually we try to be on the side of the dog that gets the movement. So if I were you, I’d probably bet the 9ers. That being said, I’m taking the Chiefs here. I’m banking on 2 things: 1. Patrick Mahomes is good at football. 2. The Chiefs are coming off of a loss and will be extra motivated to win.
Yank’s Pick: $5.20 on the 49ers+3 (-130)
Sam’s Pick: $3.00 on the Chiefs ML (-115)
The Isolation (Yank 1-2, Sam 2-3):
The New York Giants @ the Jacksonville Jaguars-3
Sam: Now unlike my Chiefs pick, this is a strategies pick. Usually we like to have an underdog in this spot, but the Jaguars have been sitting at -3 all week despite the public HAMMERING the Giants. Everyone loves the Giants this week, because how could this line be only 3?? They’re 5-1! In fact, some sportsbooks have put out graphics that the Giants are the most bet spread and money line this week. And look, I get it. As a Giants supporter this season, I loved everything I’ve seen from Saquon and Daboll. They are awesome. They continue to find ways to win when everything seems like it shouldn’t work. Meanwhile, the Jaguars, who have statistically been a better team, have continually found ways to lose at the end. Today will be an interesting test to see if stats tell us anything about outcomes or if all heart matters more
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Jaguars-3 (-115)
The Bank – Week 7
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $105.37 | $122.17 |
| Risk: | $17.70 | $21.14 |
| Potential Earnings: | $18.53 | $26.41 |
| Record: | 10-13 | 12-14 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 6-7 | 5-6 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 