Intro by Sam
Another pretty meh-to-bad week from the boys, but we’ll call that program. In our first season, each week was a pretty gnarly game of roulette, but so far this season we’re drawing up a lot more blanks. With our tease killer of the week strategy, we’re better off than you might expect when you look at our overall record. For instance, Yank is 11-16 overall and only -$4.00 on the season, while I’m 14-17 and currently up $17.38. Each new week is an opportunity for us to go big and we will, so stick with us.
The Recap
Let’s recap Week 7. In almost identical fashion, but the Texans (vs. the Raiders) and Lions (vs. the Cowboys) let us down toward the end of the games. The Texans and the Lions were in their games much longer than the final score indicated, but that’s the likely outcome when you bet touchdown-or-more underdogs. The saving grace of the Collaboration was the Browns. That game played out exactly as we thought. In a division game against the Ravens, there was no way that the Browns would win, but they did enough to make it close until the final minute.
I finally got a win back in the Confrontation when the Chiefs dominated the hapless, injured 49ers. In what started out exciting, the game ended as a no-contest with the Chiefs scoring effortlessly over and over and over again, playing the final death knell on Yank’s week. As a glutton for punishment, I bet against one of the most fun stories of the year – the GMen – by taking the Jags-3. We all should’ve known how that would play out (and it turns out the public did), but I couldn’t pass up an opportunity to go against such a publicly funded spread.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
Week 8 Picks
The Collaboration (Yank 7-10; Sam 8-9):
The Carolina Panthers @ the Atlanta Falcons-4
Yank: Well, after another losing week, let’s return to the principles, shall we? Number one, do I hate this bet? Check. Betting on PJ Walker seems like a mistake. Number two, how has the line moved? This opened at Falcons-6 and has moved multiple points toward the Panthers, check. Number three, this is a division game; so it should definitely be weird and have increased chances of an upset. Finally, the principles actually like betting on a backup QB like PJ Walker who most teams don’t have much tape on. Overall, the Panthers should be able to hang around against a Falcons team that runs the ball so often that Kyle Pitts and Drake London don’t even wear their gloves anymore.
Sam: Here I am, betting on the Panthers once again! The Panthers finally delivered against the Bucs, when I wasn’t on them of course, but we think they’ll be contenders once again this weekend. The defense actually has talent, and I think PJ Walker has shown enough to be frisky. Meanwhile, the Falcons ATS undefeated streak finally snapped and we’re guessing this is where the wheels finally fall off. Also, let’s note that Atlanta ranks #32 in pressure rate, allows the highest percentage of completions on defense, and is missing 3 DBs. Reason enough to be skeptical of the Falcons? We think so.
Yank’s Pick: $5.75 on the Panthers+4.5(-115)
Sam’s Pick: $4.60 on the Panthers+4.5 (-115) and $1.50 on the Panthers ML+176
The San Francisco 49ers-1.5 @ the Los Angeles Rams
Sam: Yank had inklings on this one early in the week and we couldn’t help but grab the 49ers against a struggling Rams team. We are firm believers that the Rams stink. At this point, they have no offensive line, only one weapon, and the defense hasn’t been the same. As you know, we also love betting on a team in a bounce-back spot, and the 49ers just got their doors blown off by one of the only good teams in the NFL this year – no shame in that. Throw in the fact that the money is predominantly on the 49ers and we have the recipe to rip it on this one.
Yank: The Rams stink. If they weren’t the defending Super Bowl champs everyone would be burying them already. The bet here is that after this week everyone will figure it out too. Might as well get in a week early. Shanahan owns McVay and the Rams even when they have a good offensive line. The 49ers injuries are the reason this bet could lose, but I actually think the bigger mistake is going to be not nabbing plus odds on something like 49ers-10. This one could get ugly.
Yank’s Pick: $5.90 on the 49ers Pk (-118)
Sam’s Pick: $4.28 on the 49ers-1 (-107)
Tease Killer of the Week (4-3):
The Green Bay Packers @ the Buffalo Bills-11
Yank: To some degree, the idea behind the tease killer of the week is what favorite seems like the biggest lock to win no matter what happens. The NFL is full of surprises and nonsensical results happen every week. When you can get Aaron Rodgers as your QB for the team that seems like it has absolutely no chance to win, it’s worth a rip.
Sam: We think the Packers might be dead and the Bills have been the cream of the crop in the NFL, so what gives? Well for starters, are we sure the Packers are dead? We’ve declared Rodgers and co. dead in the past, and been burned for it. It also turns out that the Packers defense is talented, even if they haven’t always played like it this season. This is an absolute must, must-win for the Packers and I don’t see why taking a flier on Rodgers at +400 to win is a bad thing.
Yank’s Pick: $2.00 on the Packers ML+400
Sam’s Pick: $2.00 on the Packers ML+400
The Confrontation (Yank 3-4, Sam 4-3):
The Pittsburgh Steelers @ the Philadelphia Eagles-11
Sam: I don’t love this bet this week, but when looking at the options, it felt as good as any. Both teams are coming off of a bye, so no advantage there. The last time we saw the Steelers, they beat the pants off the Bucs. It’s a classic stock-up situation and no one should be surprised by the Steelers anymore. Throw in the fact that the Eagles are loaded at every position, I expect them to be able to control every element of this game and put this one away early.
Yank: The Steelers are bad, this is a dumb bet by me. At this point in this segment, I’m just going to the well with things that seem like bad ideas, George Costanza style. The Eagles have been firing on all cylinders and at some point are due for a clunker. The Steelers have a good enough defense to make this one ugly. If you squint, ten and a half seems like it could be too many.
Yank’s Pick:$5.00 on the Steelers+10.5
Sam’s Pick: $3.15 on the Eagles-10.5 (-105)
The Isolation (Yank 1-2, Sam 2-4):
The Washington Commanders @ the Indianapolis Colts-3
Sam: My last few Iso’s haven’t quite worked for me, but I’m going to stick with it until I get back on track. This is another strategy bet. The line has moved toward the Commanders, but the money is a bit mixed. The risk here is that we’ve got a small sample size of Taylor Heineke and no sample of Sam Ehlinger. I like the Commanders talent and think that Heineke has the energy that teammates like to rally behind, meanwhile, I’m skeptical of Ehlinger dating back to his college days. I’m risking running head-on into DiNucci’s Law and losing to an unproven quarterback, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take.
Sam’s Pick: $3.08 on the Commanders ML+130
The Bank – Week 8
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $96.77 | $117.38 |
| Risk: | $18.65 | $18.61 |
| Potential Earnings: | $22.76 | $25.64 |
| Record: | 11-16 | 14-17 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 7-9 | 6-8 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 