Intro by Yank
The boys are cleaning up our act as the season rolls along. The principles led us to some bright shiny Ws last week, and Sam was one terrible penalty call away from getting the brooms out for the biggest day game sweep in OLL history.
The Recap
Let’s start in The Collaboration with that rollercoaster game in Carolina, where all looked lost, and then all was found. In terms of the game flow, we were all over the fact that Carolina was more than prepared to hang around with slow-paced Atlanta. Some shenanigans at the end put us in need of a miracle, and low and behold we got one for once. Too bad Eddy Pineiro stinks or Sam’s day would have looked even better. In the other half of this segment, I was all over the 49ers who roasted the dead Rams for an easy victory. In The Confrontation, the Eagles overwhelmed the Steelers where 10.5 was decidedly not too many points much to my chagrin. Finally, in The Isolation Sam smartly took the Commanders plus money to win against Sam Ehlinger and they came through with a game-winning drive. In the nightcap, our flier on the Packers decidedly did not come through but they looked a little frisky, backing up our confidence.
On to week 9!
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
Week 9 Picks
The Collaboration (Yank 9-11; Sam 10-11):
The Seattle Seahawks @ the Arizona Cardinals-2
Yank: The Seahawks have been one of this year’s best stories with Geno Smith rising from the ashes of obscurity into the role of above-average Russell Wilson replacement, let’s ride. Unfortunately, everyone is all over them now as they’ve broken out a little winning streak, and seems to have forgotten that a few short weeks ago we all expected this team to stink. Guess what, their OL is still bad, their defense is still filled with no names, and their home crowd is a giant advantage they will not have available in this one. This line was wonky from the moment it opened with the Cardinals as favorites, and this is an obvious place to steer into it. Vegas knows something, let’s join them.
Sam: Who here likes the Cardinals? No one. Who here likes the Seahawks? Everyone. The Seahawks are a public favorite, and rightfully so. They’re fun, Geno is ripping the ball all-around the field, they’ve got impact rookies up and down the roster. So why on earth is this game Cardinals -2? When questions like this crop up, we here at OLL, view this as close to a must-bet. The Cardinals season is on the verge of collapsing, so this is a must win, and they’re playing a division rival at home. Meanwhile, despite all of the flowers I just gave the Seahawks, the public is a little too high on what we’ve seen from the Seahawks. Pundits were lauding the defense for stonewalling a Giants offense that has… one good player? If the Seahawks are for real, they should put this team down easy. We’re not convinced so we like the added motivation for the Cardinals coming off a disappointing loss to bounce back against an overrated Seahawks team.
Yank’s Pick: $5.43 on the Cardinals-2 (-109)
Sam’s Pick: $5.75 on the Cardinals-1.5 (-115)
The Green Bay Packers-3.5 @ the Detroit Lions
Sam: As the recipient of an imploding Lions team (thanks for Hockensen, btw), it’s time for Yank to take the first step to regaining control over his betting. It’s a no-brainer to take the Pack here. While no one is truly excited to take the Lions anymore at this point in the season, the Packers have been losing and losing and losing some more. But if you go down their schedule, its been a bit more difficult than we probably once thought and they are definitely facing their easiest opponent in weeks. And after a mid-season exercise where Yank and I grouped teams into tiers, we both felt that the Packers aren’t nearly as bad as they’ve played. I mean, let’s not call them good, but we can say they’re not Lions-bad. The Packers get back on track this week by taking care of business against this roar-less Lions team.
Yank: My treatments in Dan Campbell Anonymous help center are working; I can see clearly now once again. We were encouraged by the Pack last week in Buffalo. They’re no longer an offensive juggernaut but they can pound the ball with two awesome running backs and play decent enough defense. As sad as I am to say it, Detroit stinks. Every Lions fan in Detroit can tell you what’s going to happen in this one, they’ve been watching this game their whole life. I think there’s a chance this one gets ugly.
Yank’s Pick: $5.25 on a Packers ML parlay(more detail below) and $2.30 on the Packers-9.5 (+205)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Packers-3.5 (-110)
The Confrontation (Yank 3-5, Sam 5-3):
Sadly no Confrontation this week due to a lack of anything interesting for us to bet against each other on.
The Isolation (Yank 1-2, Sam 3-4):
The Las Vegas Raiders-2.5 @ the Jacksonville Jaguars
Sam: Earlier this week I drove past a church sign that stated quite eloquently: “May the Lord have mercy on us.” I needed that message as I hit send on my $5.40 bet on the Raiders against the Jags this week. There’s a lot of things not to like this week like west-to-east travel in back-to-back weeks and perhaps more importantly Derek Carr and Josh McDaniels. Nevertheless, I think the Jaguars are ready to lie down and die for the rest of the season. The rest of the division is loading up for a run at the Super Bowl and Trevor Lawrence can’t seem to stop throwing the ball to the other team in key spots. I don’t love the Raiders here but after getting blanked by the Saints I have to think there will be a little fire under their collective posterior and come out of the pool in Jacksonville with the torpedo.
Sam’s Pick: $5.40 on the Raiders-2.5 (-108)
The Minnesota Vikings-3 @ the Washington Commanders
Yank: I know it’s scary to back the Vikings but the narrative around this team has become ridiculous. “Are the Vikings even good?” has become one of the key questions of the year. I’m flummoxed. All they do against bad teams is jump out to big leads with a great passing game and hold on for Ws with solid defensive plays. If that recipe sounds familiar it’s because the Packers used to do the same thing year in and year out. If you put Packers jerseys on this team all the same people would be ready to anoint them as the best challengers to the Eagles in the NFC. Meanwhile this Commanders team is on the other side of the coin getting too much love for a couple close victories. This is the same team that lost to my hapless Lions! This season! They stink. The Vikings are good. That’s the bet.
Yank’s pick: $4.60 on the Vikings-3(-115) and $5.25 on a Vikings/Packers ML parlay(+147)
The Bank – Week 9
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $99.77 | $128.88 |
| Risk: | $17.60 | $16.50 |
| Potential Earnings: | $21.44 | $14.55 |
| Record: | 13-18 | 18-19 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 9-10 | 9-8 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 