Intro by Sam
It was a dark day last Sunday for the boys. All seemed lost. But after some time away, we realized that we had lost our way. We strayed from the strategies. Almost all of our money was on favorites, and as you should know from reading this blog, this was an unacceptable blunder. We return to our ways this week, but first, a recap of the week that tested our resolve.
The Recap
Losers, losers everywhere, not a winner to drink. It started with picking the Cardinals to get-right against the Seahawks and the Packers to get-right against the Lions. It turns out it was a get-lost week for Sam and Yank in the Collaboration. With no Confrontation on deck, we turn to the Isolation. In the Isolation, I had the Raiders in a get-right game against the Jaguars which looked great until the Raiders left at halftime. Meanwhile Yank salvaged a push, in what was sadly the sole bright spot, by selecting the Vikings-3 against the Commanders. In a week like this, a push is a beautiful thing. We’re going to flush this week and get back to our ways. On to Week 10!
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
Week 10 Picks
The Collaboration (Yank 9-12; Sam 10-13):
The Denver Broncos @ the Tennessee Titans-2.5
Sam: I take full responsibility for this loss. As we said at the start of the blog today, we’re getting back to our principles: bet underdogs (check) and bet more teams we think don’t have a chance (check). The Broncos have been America’s nightmare and getting any joy out of watching this team has been impossible. But I have some news for you. The Broncos are 5-3 ATS. For as ugly as it gets, they’re still covering the spread at an above .500 clip. Throw in the fact that the Titans are missing game-changers at every level, and this one should be more competitive than you’d think.
Yank: I don’t love this pick, which given the year I’m having is one of the best arguments for it. As Sam already mentioned the Broncos are better than you probably think, at least when it comes to covering the spread. They are also coming off their bye, which can’t hurt. Meanwhile Tennessee had a great game last week against the Chiefs in prime time, which is everyone’s enduring memory of them. This seems like a classic One Last Line 50-50 game, might as well take the side with the positive odds. (Plus I’m too scared to bet Hackett to win, which makes it even more likely they actually will).
Yank’s Pick: $5.40 on the Broncos+3(-115)
Sam’s Pick: $5.62 on the Broncos+3 (-128) and $2.00 on the Broncos ML +120
The Detroit Lions @ the Chicago Bear-2.5
Sam: *wee ooo wee ooo wee ooo* I’m breaking Yank out of Dan Campbell’s Anonymous and we’re restoring the Roar this week against the Bears! Football! If you ask us, there’s wayyyyy too much hype behind the Bears. This team stinks. It has hardly any talent, and yes, Fields has looked good running the football the last few weeks, but just a few weeks ago, everyone was ready to label him a bust. I’m betting that the truth is somewhere in between those takes. We love a division game and we love going against a team that might have a little too much love.
Yank: Diligent readers of this space will know I LOVE betting on (and losing money on the Lions this year). Of course the first time I went against them, last week, they won outright. If that tells you anything it should be to fade us in this game. That said Sam has captured the reasons to believe and they don’t have much to do with Detroit. People love the Bears to the tune of 77% of the public action is on Chicago. The Bears stink, and faced with a division matchup, taking plus odds on them to go down is a classic strategies based choice.
Yank’s Pick: $4.60 on the Lions ML+130
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Lions ML+130
The Indianapolis Colts @ the Las Vegas Raiders-4.5
Yank: Let’s start this analysis with some facts about the Raiders. Two weeks ago they were shut out by the *checks notes* Saints, who this week are underdogs against the awful Steelers. Last week they went 17-0 against the *checks notes* Jacksonville Jaguars, who are you know the Jags, but they still somehow blew the game. This team is an absolute mess, who may not believe in Josh McDaniels, and already here at the midway point could be close to a 1,2,3 Cancun situation. On the other sideline, do I believe in Jeff Saturday coming in off the street? Of course, I don’t, but I’m also dumb and bad at gambling, as are some other people that Sam and I know well…
Sam: Here’s the question: what’s the collective wisdom here? Jim Irsay is a complete idiot. Jeff Saturday has no coaching experience. They promoted an OC whose only coaching experience has come from working for the head coach they just fired. These guys have no idea what they’re doing and it’s going to be a shit show, right? Vegas by a mile! But wait, collective wisdom when it comes to betting is usually terrible. Are we sure Saturday is going to be terrible? No! We have no idea. Heck, it may not even matter whether he’s terrible or not. What have the Raiders done to show you that they’re coached by someone deserving of a HC job? This one all comes down to an overreaction to a bad decision. We like to be on the other side of the collective *wisdom*, so we’ll hold our nose and bet the Colts here.
Yank’s Pick: $3.15 on the Colts ML(+190)
Sam’s Pick: $2.28 on the Colts+4.5 (-114) and $3.00 on the Colts ML +180
The Confrontation (Yank 3-5, Sam 5-3):
The Dallas Cowboys @ the Green Bay Packers-4.5
Yank: I must admit, sometimes it feels like at least half of the reason why this segment exists is to give me an excuse to bet against the Cowboys when Sam likes them. That being said, I do not like them this week! I had money on Green Bay last week and so I can tell you, watching them give the ball away in the red zone over and over again was infuriating. That said, they played well enough outside of those turnovers to comfortably dominate that game in bizarro world where Rodgers doesn’t throw 3 picks inside the 5. Back in the real world, this suggests while the Pack have not been good, they also aren’t as terrible as it seems? On a cold day in Wisconsin we should see both teams run the ball a ton, to great success. Is it that hard to envision a 20-17 game one way or the other? It’s really easy to imagine Mike McCarty mismanaging the end of both halves and turning two scoring opportunities into 3 points. More importantly, do you think Rodgers wants to lose to McCarthy? He hates that guy. Give me the Pack in a must win, kitchen sink type game.
Sam: Yes, we are pleased to be back on the Confrontation this week. I’m less pleased to bet the Packers here in an obvious: now that I’ve abandoned the Packers, they’ll right the ship game. There are too many people on the Cowboys for my liking, but the Packers are dead. They look lifeless on offense and the defense is a shell of itself. They have players dropping like flies and the doctors are charging up the defibrillators for this Packers’ season. I’m betting they don’t have enough juice to restart their season. And yes, Yank will opine about Mike McCarthy and how bad he is, which I generally tend to agree with, but at this point in time, it isn’t backed up by performance. The Cowboys are the best in the NFL ATS since last season (19-7) and are 13-4 as favorites. I’m pretty sure I’ve pointed this out before in defense of a Cowboys pick on this blog and proceeded to lose the bet, so I might be the curse, but there’s too much in the way of betting on the Packers in this one. Cowboys it is.
Yank’s Pick: $3.30 on the Packers+4.5(-110) and $2 on the Packers ML(+180)
Sam’s Pick: $5.50 on the Cowboys-3.5 (-110)
The Isolation (Yank 1-4, Sam 3-5):
The Bank – Week 10
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $86.79 | $112.73 |
| Risk: | $15.30 | $18.12 |
| Potential Earnings: | $17.28 | $18.29 |
| Record: | 13-21-1 | 18-22 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 9-11-1 | 9-11 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 