Intro by Yank
That one felt good folks! Ring the cash register! We finally remembered that, as squares, our value prop for you guys is to find the squarest bets out there each week and then go against them. They won’t always all come through like they did last week, but we will keep searching high and low for the best opportunities.
The Recap
So many winners Sam had a hard time copying them over from our doc onto the blog! Let’s start with the Colts, who nobody believed in, with a coach who literally had never worn the headset before. Slight tangent, but a couple of years ago we established DiNuccis law, when Ben DiNucci had to start multiple games for the Cowboys and seemed like an obvious target to bet against over and over. Well, we got killed by Ben DiNucci, Jake Luton, and any number of other no-names until we learned our lesson; if everyone likes one side, Vegas likes the other side. I’m proposing we change the theory, and the name, to Jeff Saturday’s law! Let’s ride baby, what a W!
Similarly, we were all over the fact that way too many people liked the Bears. Justin Fields’ game is sexy, but their team overall still is repugnant. Many thanks to Sam for breaking me out of Dan Campbell anonymous to eat another W. Finally I had the Packers in a must-win at Lambeau, that felt like McCarthy had choked it away before the game even started. Finally, we also had Denver against Tennessee but the less said about that game the better.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
Week 11 Picks
The Collaboration (Yank 11-13; Sam 13-15):
The Pittsburgh Steelers @ the Cincinnati Bengals-4
Sam: Are the Steelers truly as bad as we all think they are? Sure, I don’t love what I’ve seen from Pickett and the offensive line might be the worst in the league. Nevertheless, they’re .500 on the year ATS. They are a perfect OLL team because they’re the team everyone loves to bet against, but are still competitive when it comes to the spread. We think coaching matters and they still have Mike Tomlin on the sideline. I think when it is all said and done, they have enough firepower on the defensive side of the ball to get Tomlin another .500 or better season. That would require wins like this one against a division rival. Don’t forget: this team beat the Bengals in Week 1 when the Bengals had a healthy Ja’marr Chase.
Yank: As Sam mentions, this is a classic principles game. Nobody says it more than us: division games often play out strangely. Some smart people seem to agree that this one should be strange, as the line opened at Steelers+5 and has moved to Steelers+3.5/4. Even at that number, we can get decent plus odds on the better coach, with TJ Watt back, against a team potentially missing their best playmaker. Worth a shot every time.
Yank’s Pick: $3.57 on the Steelers ML (+168)
Sam’s Pick: $5.25 on the Steelers+3.5 (-105)
The Carolina Panthers @ the Baltimore Ravens-13
Yank: I should write this post once a year and then copy and paste it when we come back to this rationale. Over the past 10 seasons, favorites of 7 or more points coming off a bye cover a large percentage of the time. We like the Ravens a lot in the back half of the season for reasons Sam will get into in more detail. Old us would have been scared to lay this many points, but Carolina STINKS, and there is a better than decent chance this one is never close.
Sam: The other day I was listening to a podcast with a bettor that has a proven track record of success. One of the things he mentioned was the importance of finding angles or trends that provide edges and sticking with them (if they’re working, move on if you start losing too often). Yank and I have gone back and forth over the years of trying to balance takes and opinions with the strategies that are in theory opinion-proof (as we’ve said, we’re bad at gambling). So what this interview helped shine a light on for me, is that there is room for your opinions, and takes so long as they might provide an edge. Well, one of our takes has been that this was going to be a good year for the Ravens and that with an MVP in Lamar at QB, their potential was high. That hasn’t played out exactly right so far this year, but they’ve been close. Whether it was going up 21-3 against the Bills in the first half or leading by 3 touchdowns in the 4th quarter over the Dolphins, all before falling apart at the seams, I think this well-timed bye week is exactly what the Ravens need to get back to the team we thought they would be and they’ve demonstrated they can be.
Yank’s Pick: $5.44 on the Ravens-13 (-109)
Sam’s Pick: $5.30 on the Ravens-13 (-106)
Tease Killer of the Week (4-4):
The Philadelphia Eagles-7 @ the Indianapolis Colts
Yank: I already coined Jeff Saturday’s Law above and this is a perfect opportunity to put it into practice. What if the Colts biggest issue was OL health and playing the wrong QB (and now both those issues are fixed)? What if Jeff Saturday makes close to no difference on the outcome of the game? What if the NFC East is actually super overrated because they all have played incredibly easy schedules? Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts are untouchable now because they started the season hot? I don’t buy it. Everybody and their brother and that brother’s brother has the Eagles in a tease this weekend. Rule number 1: Don’t be those guys.
Sam: We don’t love betting against the Eagles here in an obvious bounceback, and we certainly don’t love betting on the Colts in an obvious stock-up spot. That being said, our backs are against the wall here. The bulk of the tickets are on the Eagles while the money is for the Colts. Jeff Saturday showed enough to not be utterly incompetent and the Eagles are good, but not world-beaters. 7 points on the road is tough, even for the mighty eagles.
Yank’s Pick: $2.35 on the Colts ML
Sam’s Pick: $4.80 on the Colts+7 (-120) and $2.00 on the Colts ML (+245)
The Kansas City Chiefs-5 @ the Los Angeles Chargers
Yank: Wash, rinse, repeat much of the Steelers rationale from above. Anyone’s first take looking at this game is that it will be an easy Chiefs W. Nevertheless in a division matchup anything can happen, and this Chargers team always plays up for their games against KC as evidenced by their strong performance against them on TNF earlier this year. If they are going to make the playoffs they likely need to go 1-1 in this matchup and this is their last opportunity to do so. Add in the fact they are likely getting some playmakers back form injury and this is the type of bet that we need to take a rip on (even if I hate going against Kansas City, ever, in any context).
Sam: This one is a clear strategy pick. I almost took the Chargers last week as underdogs to the 49ers and regretted not betting on them in the end. I won’t make that same mistake this week. For starters, the Chiefs are easy to love and the Chargers have been disappointing. But despite all of the injuries and disappointment, the Chargers have still been competitive. This is a division game where the road team is favored by almost a touchdown. That’s pretty disrespectful. And while the Chiefs have won a ton of their games, they haven’t had quite the same level of dominance as in seasons past. I think this one will shock some people this week.
Yank’s Pick: $2.93 on the Chargers ML (+205)
Sam’s Pick: $2.20 on the Chargers+5.5 (-110) and $4.00 on the Chargers ML (+205)
The Confrontation (Yank 4-5, Sam 5-4):
No Confrontations on the slate this week.
The Isolation (Yank 1-4, Sam 3-5):
No Isolations on the slate this week.
The Bank – Week 10
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $99.96 | $113.51 |
| Risk: | $14.29 | $23.55 |
| Potential Earnings: | $23.00 | $29.10 |
| Record: | 17-22-1 | 21-25 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 10-13-1 | 10-13 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 