Intro by Sam
It’s a three-course football meal this Thanksgiving Day and the boys at One Last Line are here to fill your plates with piles and piles of takes. Per usual the football could be better – and certainly the bets – but we’ll build off of our success from last Thanksgiving. Our opening season was abysmal, featuring negative returns, but we rebounded well with a big W from the Raiders in Dallas last year. Yank and I both currently sit in the black after two tumbles over the wishbone, with Yank taking the lead at +$10.65 to my meager +$2.52. Sit back, lock your bets, and loosen your belt buckles folks: our favorite football post of the year is here and cran-packed with picks!
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
Thanksgiving Day Picks
The Buffalo Bills-9.5 @ the Detroit Lions
Yank: My guy Danny C did me dirty last week, after blowing it more often than not when I’ve bet on him this year, he took out my Giants in devastating fashion. That said, the Giants were overwhelmed by injuries, particularly on defense. That hasn’t changed and will impact another one of our picks today. Sadly for Lions fans, I’m not sure beating that decimated Giants team was much of a signal. Meanwhile, everyone considered the Bills locks to make the Super Bowl two weeks ago. The Lions defense still stinks, this one could get ugly quickly.
Sam: If you ever needed more reason to believe that the NFL doesn’t care about putting interesting matchups on primetime, they’ve locked us into the Lions on Thanksgiving Day in perpetuity. Nevertheless, we will watch and we will bet. This one is a no-brainer. The Lions are stock-up and the Bills are stock-down to stock-mid. I know everyone loves the Lions from their Hard Knocks performance – Yank included – but they’re not a very good football team. The Bills have the defensive pieces to make Jared Goff look like burnt Turkey and the Allen/Diggs combo will take care of the Lions abysmal defense.
Yank’s Play: $5.50 on the Bulls-9.5 (-110)
Sam’s Play: $5.50 on the Bulls-9.5 (-110)
The New York Giants @ the Dallas Cowboys-10
Sam: GGGGGMMMMMMEEEEENNNNNN! Okay but not quite. We are decidedly pro-Giants on this blog, but with Yank and I playing corner for them this Thursday, we couldn’t get on board with an overwhelmingly public Giants spread bet. We’ve decided to hedge between a Cowboys blowout and a surprisingly competitive Giants performance. Everyone loves an over-bet so we’re going with a boring under-pick. Boo points!
Yank: The Giants defense is totally overcome by injuries as mentioned above. That said people are way too high on the Cowboys after a big performance last week. Given this is a short-week division game, I think it’s reasonable to expect a strange game. That said whether it’s strangely a close contest in the 20s or a 30-3 Cowboys win, the under feels like it’s in play. Settle in for a snooze fest right around your post Dinner nap time.
Yank’s Play: $5.50 on the Under 45.5 (-110)
Sam’s Play: $5.50 on the Under 45.5 (-110)
The New England Patriots @ the Minnesota Vikings-2.5
Yank: These teams are basically impossible to predict. Both have looked like world-beaters and also totally incompetent depending on the week. Rather than try to figure out what happens here, we are going to hedge against a terrible day for both our teams (which seems very much in play, unfortunately).
Sam: Unfortunately for me, after Yank and I get done playing for the Giants we’re flying over to Minneapolis to suit up as corners for the Vikes. But since it’s the day of gratitude, I can be thankful the Patriots have no WRs to terrify the Vikes. At the end of the day, I do think the Vikings are dealing a bit too much with the injury bug in this one, and on a short week, it might be too much to overcome, even against the lowly Patriots offense.
Yank’s Play: $3.44 on a Patriots/Cowboys ML Parlay (+175)
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Patriots/Cowboys ML Parlay (+170)
Prop Bet #1: Stefon Diggs, Saquon Barkley, and Justin Jefferson to score a touchdown each +660
Sam: We’re all about sharing the food today and these boys are ready to eat. This little prop bet features three of the most likely touchdown scorers to each score a touchdown. Would it be a Thanksgiving if we weren’t grateful for great performances from the greatest players in the game?
Yank’s Play: $1.00 on Diggs/Barkley/Jefferson to score a touchdown (+610)
Sam’s Play: $1.00 on Diggs/Barkley/Jefferson to score a touchdown (+610)
Prop Bet #2: Dawson Knox, Dalton Schultz, and TJ Hockensen to score a touchdown each +2866
Yank: Nobody loves Thanksgiving as much as the big boys! Let’s take a shot on some big men to find their way into the end zone at some point. These guys could be feast or famine but the payoff will be a nice little dessert this evening if the big boys come through!
Yank’s Play: $1.00 on Knox/Schultz/Hockensen to score a touchdown (+2866)
Sam’s Play: $1.00 on Knox/Schultz/Hockensen to score a touchdown (+2866)
Thanksgiving performances:
| Sam | Yank | |
| Against the Spread: | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Moneyline: | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Over/Unders: | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Props: | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Total: | 4-2 | 2-3 |
| Money: | $2.52 | $10.65 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 