Intro by Yank
On the week of feasts, we have unfortunately been eating a few bitter meals here on the blog. After week 10 where we could do no wrong, in week 11 we could do no right. All of our picks were competitive but none of them came through. That theme unfortunately continued to several of our Thanksgiving picks. Hopefully, we finished eating our vegetables and can find some dessert starting this week.
The Recap
Last Sunday we backed three home dogs and unfortunately took three losses. Jeff Saturday couldn’t fully evolve into Jeff Sunday, letting Jalen Hurts waltz right into the end zone in the final minutes. The beleaguered Steelers started strong but couldn’t hold on for 60 minutes against the Bengals. Finally, the hapless Chargers left Mahomes too much time, which at this point is a tale as old as time. We also liked the Ravens. As the saying goes, good teams win, and great teams cover. The Ravens seem fully entrenched in the “good” camp at this point.
Sadly, the picks were not much better on Thanksgiving. The Bills never really threatened to cover even against the terrible Lions defense. The Giants tried their best to hold the total under against the Cowboys but found some life in the final minutes to push the score over. Finally, our hedge against a no good terrible bad day lost as (thankfully) the Vikings pulled out a W. We did manage to get some back on our Diggs/Barkley/Jefferson TD parlay. Let’s hope that portends our luck turning a bit this week.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
Week 12 Picks
The Collaboration (Yank 11-17; Sam 15-19):
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-3 @ the Cleveland Browns
Yank: We are going back to the well on a favorite coming off a bye. This one is especially enticing because the historical trends are very favorable for road favorites coming off their bye. The Bucs are not super trustworthy, but guys like Sam and I feeling that way is just another reason to take them in this spot. We are often wrong, trust the trends, take the Bucs.
Sam: Let’s call this one the bye-week Bucs bet. The Bucs are coming off of their triumphant performance over the Seahawks in Munich and long two weeks off. The Bucs have always been talented, but have struggled with injuries and inconsistency. I think with a little rest, a few weeks away from divorce drama for Brady, and a struggling Cleveland team, the Bucs will continue their winning ways from Munich.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Buccaneers-3 (-115)
Sam’s Pick: $4.16 on the Buccaneers-3.5 (-104)
The Atlanta Falcons @ the Washington Commanders-4
Sam: Our tried and true Falcons are back on the board this week. The Commanders are feeling themselves a little too much, and the Falcons have been stonecold killers as underdogs this season. They play a hard-nosed style of football and will be able to move the ball against this Manders defense. At the end of the day, underdogs have been killing it this year and the Falcons have been a prime example of a mid-to-good team that you have to capitalize on whenever they’re an underdog.
Yank: This is more of a vibez pick for me, which is always dangerous. That said, I am not a believer in the Commanders. We know who Taylor Heinicke is at this point, the defense is solid but not spectacular, and Ron Rivera’s best years were best timed up with Cam Newton’s. Meanwhile, the Falcons are solid if not spectacular on both sides of the ball. They will run the ball, play their gaps, do their job, and have a chance late. Taking a team like that in what feels like a 50-50 game for plus odds is my favorite type of bet.
Yank’s Pick: $2.75 on the Falcons+4 (-110) and $2.00 on the Falcons ML (+168)
Sam’s Pick: $2.00 on the Falcons+3.5 (-110) and $3.00 on the Falcons ML (+160)
Tease Killer of the Week:
The Chicago Bears @ the New York Jets-7
Yank: Way way WAYYY too many people think the Jets are a lock to win this game. This is a backup vs. backup battle between two moribund franchises. Assuming any outcome is a lock is the easiest way to lose money. Line me up with the casinos on the off chance that the Bears win. Plus 240 seems like awesome odds to go against Mike White in a game where anything can happen.
Sam: Da Bears! Who’s their QB today? I have no idea. This bet is not about the Bears or the Jets for that matter. The Jets are favored by a touchdown in a battle of 2 backup quarterbacks. I think either of these teams would be lucky to score a touchdown. We’re betting this one on a wing and a prayer, but it’s the year of the underdog and we’re trying to capitalize on a game no one will watch.
Yank’s Pick: $2.50 on the Bears ML (+240)
Sam’s Pick: $3.00 on the Bears ML (+240)
The New Orleans Saints @ the San Francisco 49ers-9
Sam: Usually it’s a bad sign when I distrust a team and try to chase that bet. In this case, count me as skeptical of the 49ers. The 49ers have collected talent at virtually every position and have an offensive genius as head coach. That being said, they have a huge question mark at QB. Jimmy G has done enough to get the job done, but they really haven’t put the hammer down. I don’t love the Saints, they’ve been incredibly inconsistent, but they’ve shown flashes of competence from time to time. We’re banking on a good showing from the Saints against a team that the public loves. Throw in the fact that the 9ers have 61% of the tickets but the Saints have 84% of the money, and we’re banking on the sharps knowing more about what’s going on than you or me.
Yank: Another flier that seems worth a rip. New Orleans has what feels like 15 contributors coming back from injury this week. Meanwhile, are we sure San Francisco is good? They have awesome skill talent but Jimmy G has been pretty bad. The Saints are somehow still alive for their terrible division. They have a decent chance to ugly it up and possibly even pull off a stunner.
Yank’s Pick: $2.00 on the Saints+9.5 (-113) and $1.80 on the Saints ML(+340)
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Saints+8.5 (-110) and $1.00 on the Saints ML (+340)
Monday Night Special:
The Pittsburgh Steelers @ the Indianapolis Colts-2.5
Sam: My initial inkling was to take a bunch of favorites this week. Big red flag. When you’re about to bet only favorites, step back and assess. It’s never easy betting on an underdog because there are genuine questions about those teams and why they’re underdogs, but as we’ve said before, giving professional teams points is always a little unfair. So, I’m hammering underdogs this week, and I’m planning to finish off a 5-0 week with a little taste on the Steelers to get a win against the Colts. We’ve taken advantage of the Jeff Saturday Colts as underdogs and the public is accustomed to this working. This week the Colts are favorites Monday night and we’re jumping in the other direction. Give me a well-coached, underrated Steelers team as an underdog.
Yank: Plain and simple, we are going to be at this game live, so why not have a little action? Jeff Saturday proved last weekend he’s not Jeff Sunday, so there is no chance at all he comes through as Jeff Monday. Here we go Steelers, here we go!
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Steelers ML (+122)
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Steelers ML (+122)
The Confrontation (Yank 4-5, Sam 5-4):
No Confrontations on the slate this week.
The Isolation (Yank 1-4, Sam 3-5):
No Isolations on the slate this week.
The Bank – Week 12
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $76.33 | $92.31 |
| Risk: | $21.05 | $21.16 |
| Potential Earnings: | $30.20 | $29.73 |
| Record: | 18-30-1 | 24-33 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 10-15-1 | 12-16 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 