Intro by Sam
There are no ifs, ands, or, buts about it, we’ve been in a bit of a slump lately. The profit arrow is trending down and we’ll need a good performance soon if we want to turn things around. It’s always easy to overreact to a bad week and dismiss your process. We have a good process that’s demonstrated success, but a few bad bounces and we’re struggling. The good news for us: Sunday is here and we’ve got a chance to right the ship.
The Recap
Almost winning was the theme of the day. Before betting on the Bucs, I asked Yank, what have the Bucs shown us that would dictate that they should be favorites on the road anywhere? And while they could have won this game at several points, they decided to prove my initial take right. The Falcons ran 4 plays at the end of the game inside the Commanders 10-yard line before settling for a bet-ending interception. Meanwhile, the Saints defense managed to keep the 49ers to a measly 13 points but managed a big fat 0 points on offense themselves. Once again, we needed one touchdown at any point in that game for a cover.
In the only not-close matchup of the day, the Bears bet was a stab in the dark against Mike White, and one we lost handily. Do we regret losing? Sure. Do we regret taking a flier? Not so much. Our only redemption of the week came on Monday when the Steelers took care of business against Jeff Monday who had a case of allergies to timeouts. While the losing has been hard, we’re sticking to the strategies and hammering the underdogs. Let’s see if we can get back to our winning ways.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
Week 13 Picks
The Collaboration (Yank 12-23; Sam 16-25):
The Jacksonville Jaguars @ the Detroit Lions EVEN
Yank: We are much better at picking underdogs than favorites, which is a theme you will see us lean into hard this week. When we jumped on this game the Lions were a slight (1 point) favorite. This Lions team should not be favored against anyone. Their defense is horrific. Dan Campbell is a great leader, but nobody will mistake him for a rocket scientist. Meanwhile, on the other sideline, Trevor Lawrence is gaining steam and Doug Pederson has won a Super Bowl. In what should be a mistake-fest we’re happy to take the better coach and QB in a pickem’ situation.
Sam: Despite their record and poor performances late in games, the analytics community likes the Jaguars. They’ve played mostly great football until some key moments (particularly Lawrence-related RedZone interceptions). As Yank points out, however, they seem to have turned a corner a bit and are going up against a bad defense here. While we know the Jags will still Jags, we think the general public is a little too low on the Jags here so we’re going to grab them as underdogs.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Jags Pk (-106)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Jags ML (+100)
The Washington Commanders-2 @ the New York Giants
Yank: The caveat to this pick is that I am betting with my heart. That said, I just fundamentally don’t believe that we live in a world where the Washington C-words are a good football team. Congrats to them for putting together a few wins in a row. Ron Rivera is still a guy who peaked in 2015. We all know who Taylor Heinicke is at this point and he is poised for an implosion. The Gmen have not done much to inspire confidence recently, but they are well coached and getting somewhere between 6-10 contributors back from injury this week. It’s insulting they are underdogs at home against this joke of a Washington team. I expect them to play like it.
Sam: The public has learned their lesson on the Giants a few times this year: don’t expect this Daboll-led team to quit. It feels like in almost every game they’ve been an underdog they’ve shown up in a meaningful way. And yes, they lost to the Cowboys – twice. But this Commanders team isn’t the Cowboys. Yes, they have a good defensive line and some playmakers on offense, but the Giants are getting guys back from injury and coming off of 10 days of rest. We love teams that get extra rest, especially this late in the season, so yeah, we’re taking the Giants to run the ball all day in the sewage-infested FedEx Field.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Giants ML (+115)
Sam’s Pick: $5.22 on the Giants ML (+115)
The Tennessee Titans @ the Philadelphia Eagles-4.5
Yank: A classic One Last Line scenario here. Eagles stock couldn’t be higher coming off a drubbing of the Packers on national TV. Meanwhile, the Titans dropped a game to the surging Bengals. There’s not really any reason for Philly to lose this game, which makes it the perfect opportunity to jump on the Titans money line. They have a great coach, they need a W to get back on track, and the Eagles are not going 16-1, plain and simple.
Sam: Yank lays this one out crystal clear. The Titans have been that team that is incredibly annoying the last couple of years with Vrabel as Head Coach. They don’t do anything flashy, in fact, some might say they’re boring, but they do all of the little things and simply win games. I mean with all the talent in the AFC, the Titans were the number-one seed last season for crying out loud. Things haven’t gone as smoothly for them this year, but never, never, underestimate this team. We like the way the strategies line up here, even if it doesn’t hit.
Yank’s Pick: $3.25 on the Titans ML (+185)
Sam’s Pick: $3.34 on the Titans ML (+180) and $3.18 on the Titans+4.5 (-106)
Tease Killer of the Week:
The Seattle Seahawks-7 @ the Los Angeles Rams
Sam: A division game with a road team favored by a touchdown? Count us in. If you’ve been reading us for long enough you know that we love division games to be close, and you know we’re trying to take as many underdogs as we can force our brains to accept. Despite the entire Rams roster being placed in a MASH unit, we like the Rams to give the Seahawks a game. As the resident McVay-skeptic on this blog, I can’t even question his motor and competitiveness. Do you really think the Rams are just going to lie down and die? We’re banking on the Rams to have a few notes from their last matchup and the desire to give them hell. The Seahawks defense is bad, so don’t let this second Rams unit scare you off. They should be able to do enough to get the job done.
Yank: The Rams are bad bad bad, bad bad bad bad. All of their best offensive players are hurt. Their OL still stinks. So what gives here? Everyone on earth is teasing the Seahawks with this line. In a division game, on the road, there is a decent chance the Seahawks continue to regress to the mean. This is the type of matchup that ruins everyone’s teasers and survivor pools. Join us on the side of the casinos.
Yank’s Pick: $2.22 on the Rams ML (+270)
Sam’s Pick: $2.70 on the Rams ML (+260) and $3.12 on the Rams+6.5 (-104)
The Confrontation (Yank 4-5, Sam 5-4):
No Confrontations on the slate this week.
The Isolation (Yank 1-4, Sam 3-5):
No Isolations on the slate this week.
The Bank – Week 13
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $70.38 | $80.03 |
| Risk: | $15.47 | $22.56 |
| Potential Earnings: | $22.47 | $30.04 |
| Record: | 18-30-1 | 24-33 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 10-15-1 | 12-16 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 