Intro by Yank
When it rains it pours and over the last few weeks it has been coming down in buckets on your boys. Last week was another example of why gambling is difficult (and why fading us is never a bad idea). Luck has simply not been on our side, as our good ideas don’t come through and our bad ideas get roasted. The good thing about rain is that it can help us put the fire out. Let’s hope we’ve washed away most of the terrible ideas and can get a bounce or two to go our way this week.
The Recap
At this point with our lack of success, these picks seem like they’ve been taking place at midnight (or on Midnights). We’ve been committed to underdogs because our picking record had been much better on them. Unfortunately, we haven’t been able to find a hero as broadly underdogs have struggled to find Ws. Let’s start in Detroit where the Jags never had a chance. We thought that the fools gold team was the Lions but the Jags were more than happy to remind us “it’s [them], hi, [they’re] the problem, it’s [them]”. Meanwhile, the clock struck midnight for the Titans (and their GM Jon Robinson) as well when AJ Brown and the Eagles returned to town, dressed for revenge. Three hours of Vigilante Shit later it was another big L for the boys.
The more positive side of the ledger was still a net negative. The sad reality is no matter whether karma is a god, a relaxing thought, or a cat…we and karma have just not vibed like that (for weeks now as mentioned above). The Rams gave us a chance to reclaim some shine when, as we expected, McVay had them polished up real nice for a matchup with the tumbling Seahawks. Sadly they were only Bejeweled with rhinestones, while it was Geno Smith who made the whole place shimmer with a game-winning drive. Finally, we were hoping that none of it was accidental for Daboll and the Giants and that from the first time they saw the Commanders nothing was going to stop them. Sadly, Daboll was not the Mastermind we were hoping for, even if he still achieved our best result of the week, a sad, sad tie.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
Week 14 Picks
The Collaboration (Yank 12-23; Sam 16-25):
The Baltimore Ravens @ The Pittsburgh Steelers-1.5
Sam: Yank and I are true believers in the Steelers. Tomlin is that guy and they have enough defensive talent to make any offense miserable on Sunday. I think with their poor start to the year, most people are off of their scent and I think we can capture a little value on them down the stretch. There is a reason that Tomlin hasn’t had a losing season, even despite mediocre to bad QB the last few seasons.
Yank: It was easy earlier this season to write the Steelers off, Mitch Trubisky was bad and an injury to TJ Watt was worse. The offense looked impotent and the defense lacked playmakers. Enter Kenny Pickett and re-enter TJ Watt in the last few weeks. All of a sudden this team has a chance at the playoff chase, but they HAVE to win this week. The Ravens have barely been able to put it all together for a full game when Lamar Jackson plays. This is a bet that the Steelers are slightly more desperate and have slightly more talent. I’m scared to lay any points but I think they pull it out. (Ps. I love the Chiefs to win this week, Mahomes is undefeated against Denver and the Broncos struggle to score 16 ppg. Not a good recipe to beat Mahomes; you will see the Chiefs as an odds booster a couple of times from me this week)
Yank’s Pick: $4.00 on a Steelers+Chiefs ML parlay (+125)
Sam’s Pick: $4.28 on the Steelers-2 (-107)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ The San Francisco 49ers-3.5
Yank: This one could be called your Jeff Saturday’s Law pick of the week. This seems like a crazy line for a rookie third-stringer against Tom Brady. That said we lose on bets like this. All. The. Time. The 49ers defense should be a significant impediment to the Bucs anemic offense. And we actually believe in Purdy more than you might think.
Sam: This week we’re burning our money. We’ve decided to bet on Brock Purdy, yes, that quarterback you kinda remember from college and kinda remember that he played for a school like Iowa State. While typically for a Saturday’s law candidate we like to find someone that everyone has no faith in, in this case, I do feel like there’s some belief that he could be decent, which worries me. Nevertheless, we’re taking him because we don’t believe in this Bucs offense to do anything. Brady actually still looks good despite being 100 years old, but either Leftwich or Bowles can’t get out of their own way and make every play laborious. If the Bucs threw the ball on every play, maybe I’d be a little more nervous here, but they consistently run the ball when they shouldn’t and get in their own way.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on a 49ers+Chiefs ML parlay (-106)
Sam’s Pick: $4.60 on the 49ers-3 (-115)
Tease Killer of the Week:
The Philadelphia Eagles @ The New York Giants+7
Sam: We should label this bet the Sisyphus Bet of the Week. Here we are, every Sunday, trying to capture the Eagles slip up. I refuse to look it up, but it feels like we’ve been betting on the Eagles opponent on the ML every week this season. And every Sunday, we climb the mountain with our boulder and ask ourselves, is this life? And at the end of every Sunday, at the top of the mountain, we look down at our boulder and realize we’ve been trudging this big fat L all the way up the mountain. So, as Sisyphus does, we begin our climb up the mountain this week, dressed as Giants.
Yank: Once again, I am biased, but I’m here to advocate for the Gmen in an NFC East matchup. The idea here is pretty simple; the Eagles are really good, but I think they are going 1-1 against the Giants in their two matchups. The tie last week just proved that the Giants are more or less equivalent to the Commanders who…already beat the Eagles. This is a classic One Last Line bet, the spread is too high because the Eagle’s stock couldn’t be higher and the Giants stock is pretty low coming off some bad Ls and a tie. Meanwhile, these teams know each other well and this game should be close with a decent shot at the upset.
Yank’s Pick: $4.40 on the Giants+7.5 -110 and $2.20 on the Giants ML (+280)
Sam’s Pick: $2.60 on the Giants+7.5 -110 and $5.00 on the Giants ML (+280)
The Confrontation (Yank 4-5, Sam 5-4):
The New York Jets @ the Buffalo Bills-10
Yank: This bet on the Jets seems too easy. They’ve looked great since Mike White took over and already beat the Bills this year. Now they are TEN-POINT UNDERDOGS! What gives?! This line stinks to high heaven for me. Taking the Jets feels way too easy. Meanwhile, the line has actually moved even more toward the Bills from -9.5 to -10 which is a significant half-point. Follow the movement, follow the sharps, follow your nose, my friends. This one seems like it could get ugly in Buffalo. A true Mike White stinker game is lurking on the periphery. Let’s steer into it and adjust the line upward to capture some value.
Sam: Yank’s on a heater (in a bad way). When he did a 180 in the middle of the week and jumped on the Bills, I told myself I had to consider just going against him here. So, I’m betting on Mike White and the Jets to beat the Bills AGAIN this season. Listen, I don’t love betting a division dog to win twice, but I think the Bills have shown their true colors and the Jets have been good enough the last couple of weeks to merit a bet. The Jets defense is a handful and will make life hard for the one-weapon Bills.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Bills-12.5 (+120)
Sam’s Pick: $2.00 on the Jets+10 and $2.00 on the Jets ML (+400)
The Isolation (Yank 1-4, Sam 3-5):
The Carolina Panthers @ the Seattle Seahawks-3.5
Sam: This is simply put a strategies bet. The Panthers are underdogs. The line has moved from Panthers+5.5 to Panthers+3.5. The public has the Seahawks and the money is all on the Panthers. It’s about as simple as it gets. I think this falls in line with the way the Panthers and Seahawks have been trending lately too. The Seahawks were the darlings of the early part of the season but have fallen off a bit the last few weeks. Meanwhile, the Panthers talented defense was hidden behind Matt Rhule’s incompetence and Baker Mayfield’s ineptitude. Since they’ve made changes at both positions, they’ve been a much more competitive football team. I like the Panthers to pick up a sneaky victory in Seattle.
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Panthers ML (+168)
The Minnesota Vikings @ The Detroit Lions-2.5
Yank: Whether I’m inside or outside of Dan Campbell Anonymous I can’t stop losing money on Lions games; so why quit now! The Lions stock is incredibly high coming of a good performance against Buffalo (still a loss!) and a blowout win against the hapless Jags. The Vikings are 10-2, and they have seen the spread and heard the storylines this week and should come into this game angry. The Lions still have one of the worst defenses in the league. Dan Campbell still coaches incredibly conservatively and leaves points on the board left and right. Every team has tried to shut down Justin Jefferson and every team has failed. Both these teams are better suited to play from ahead but the Vikings have been undoubtedly more consistent at actually pulling ahead early in games. This is likely a one-score game, but the Vikes should have the lead late. And there’s even a chance of a total Lions collapse. Scenarios, where the Vikings win by 6+, seem as likely as a Lions win. Let’s take a chance that these Vikes are better than people think.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Vikings-5.5 +210
The Bank – Week 14
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $59.91 | $63.59 |
| Risk: | $25.60 | $24.48 |
| Potential Earnings: | $36.38 | $40.58 |
| Record: | 18-30-1 | 24-33 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 10-15-1 | 12-16 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 