Intro by Yank
We’re dumb and bad at gambling. That’s been the motto of this blog since we began. Nothing proves it quite like the last few weeks. Our football takes have been prescient but we have negative dollars to show for it. As we definitively enter winter, the weather outside is frightful, and frankly, the game results have been spiteful. We’re hoping for some better luck as we go. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.
The Recap
Our first pick last week in The Collaboration was a perfect encapsulation of our season: we were on the Steelers because of Kenny Pickett’s development and by halftime Kenny Pickett was out of the game concussed. Tough one to swallow but onward and upward. We also liked the Giants, who never had a chance. We did at least have the 49ers, who were never in doubt.
In The Confrontation, we had differing options on Bills vs. Jets. The game was never in doubt but the Jets scored late to cover the spread…*eye roll*. Finally, in The Isolation, I believed a little too strongly in the Vikings and was rewarded with an empty wallet. Meanwhile, Sam followed the strategies and found the Panthers against the fading Seahawks. That win was a good reminder, the formula is clear, winners are out there to be had. Let’s go take advantage.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
Week 15 Picks
The Collaboration (Yank 13-30-1; Sam 18-33):
The Cincinnati Bengals-3.5 @ The Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sam: This week we’re going all in on the Bengals and all in against the Bucs. Look, let’s face it. The Bucs are awful. Every week we’ve been told, “look out for Brady, he’s still got it.” And while that might be the case, he can’t overcome horrible coaching. The Bucs aren’t going to put up more than 19 points in a game, and I think the Bengals deliver a massive blow to the Bucs NFC South title race.
Yank: We don’t know much, but we do know this years version of the Bucs stink. The coaching both in terms of game management and play calling has been more conservative than the Florida statehouse. The injuries have piled up. They were lucky to win two games on miracle drives or they’d be 4-9. Would a 4-9 team only be 3.5pt underdogs against the streaking Bengals? Normally we like to find a game we think is 50-50 and take the underdog for plus odds. This is the opposite approach. The Bucs are D-E-A-D. Let’s load up against them.
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on the Bengals ML (-190)
Sam’s Pick: $15.00 on the Bengals ML (-190) and $4.00 on the Bengals-9.5 (+200)
The Atlanta Falcons @ the New Orleans Saints-4
Yank: Speaking of 50-50 games, here is one! Both these teams STINK. I understand the Saints are at home facing a rookie QB, but this seems like a prime “Jeff Saturday’s Law” opportunity in a division game to boot. Would anyone be surprised if Ridder looked great and the Falcons won this game? I also like the Falcons and the points in this one given how much Atlanta runs the ball, points should be at a premium and 4/4.5 is a big number in that environment.
Sam: We’ve been trying to find a comfortable seat on the incredibly topsy-turvy Saints team all year, and while it’s still hard to figure them out, applying Saturday’s law seems pretty straightforward in this case. Desmond Ridder is starting at QB? Who? Yes, that guy that led Cincinnati to the College Playoffs. Look, he might not be worth too many points, but every week the public falls into the trap of a lock bet. Yank and I are willing to go against the Saints here, thanks to the unknown quantity of Ridder and the Falcons.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Falcons+4.5(-110) and $2.00 on the Falcons ML(+178)
Sam’s Pick: $4.60 on the Falcons+4.5 (-115) and $2.00 on the Falcons ML (+172)
The New England Patriots @ the Las Vegas Raiders-1
Sam: The Raiders have 58% of the tickets. The Patriots have 65% of the money. Betting the Pats falls under the category of strategy bets. Throw in the fact that Belichick has the chance to spurn one of his former assistant coaches, and you know it’s going to be rough. The Pats are going to clobber the Raiders and there is nothing they can do about it.
Yank: I simply don’t buy this Raiders team. Weren’t we talking like a month ago about if Josh McDaniels was going to get fired? Congrats to him for getting off the hot seat with wins over the bumbling Broncos, sliding Seahawks and churlish Chargers but I still don’t believe this team is any good. They just lost to the Rams! Most importantly all this belies the most important point that Sam has already made once. Do we really think Josh McDaniels is going to beat Bill Belichick in a football game? The man who handed Jeff Saturday his first NFL W is going to turn around and take down his former boss, the best NFL coach of the modern era. I definitely don’t buy that. We can get the master over the apprentice for plus odds on the moneyline? Sign me up 100 times out of 100.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Patriots ML(+100)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Patriots ML (+110)
The Confrontation (Yank 4-6, Sam 6-4):
No Confrontations on the slate this week.
The Isolation (Yank 1-5-1, Sam 4-5):
The Tennessee Titans @ the Los Angeles Chargers-3
Sam: Listen, I know I sound like a broken record when it comes to my isolation bets, but this is a strategy bet. The Chargers have 55% of the tickets, and the Titans have 62% of the money. This means, the sharps like the Titans. I’m going to be on the side of the sharps. Additionally, when I presented this matchup to Yank, he was disturbed by the idea of how bad the Titans have been. Meanwhile, the Chargers have the same record as the Titans… Lastly, I like the idea of Derrick Henry getting a lot of carries against a defense that supposedly likes to give space for the run. If that turns out to be the case, it could be a long day for the Chargers defense.
Sam’s Pick: $4.80 on the Titans +3 (-120)
The Pittsburgh Steelers @ the Carolina Panthers-3
Yank: Another game where the narrative doesn’t not match the team or coaching quality in my opinion. Everyone is scared to bet on Mitch Trubisky, who was awful last week, but totally forgetting that Sam “I’m seeing ghosts” Darnold is the opposing signal caller. This line has crept down towards the Steelers from 3.5 to 3 and now in some places 2.5 as we approach game time. Would not be surprised at all if the team with Mike Tomlin and TJ Watt kept it close or even pulled out the victory.
Yank’s Pick: $6.00 on the Steelers+3.5(-120) and $2.00 on a Steelers/Bengals ML parlay (+245)
The Bank – Week 15
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $44.01 | $62.25 |
| Risk: | $30.00 | $35.40 |
| Potential Earnings: | $28.77 | $32.83 |
| Record: | 20-44-2 | 29-48 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 10-22-1 | 15-22 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 