Intro by Sam
What’s that you say? It’s SUPER WILD CARD WEEKEND!! Football! We’ve got 6 meaningful games coming up this weekend with 0 interruptions. What more could you ask for? Before we dive into our picks, a quick look back at Week 18.
It’s fair to say Week 18, didn’t go according to plan. We were right on the money in some respects. In fact, we had 6/7 picks right. The problem we ran into was forgetting that we put Dallas in the locks category of our parlays. Had we just switched out Dallas with the Vikings, we’d be looking at 2/3 parlays hitting. Alas, not a parlay was to be had and a negative week all around. That’s just our luck this season. At the end of the year, neither Yank nor I was able to stay even as we both fell to the bottom of the barrel with our $100 buy-in. While the bets didn’t hit, the fun did. Plus, it ain’t over yet. Opportunity abounds this weekend and we’re looking to get right back into the action (Pro tip: fade us).
Wild Card Picks
The Seattle Seahawks @ the San Francisco 49ers-9 (Saturday at 4:30 ET)
Yank: A few weeks ago I decided not to bet against the 49ers anymore. We had just lost betting against them for at least the second week in a row and I was sick of losing money. If you want to be smart, stop reading now, and skip to Sam’s section. For some reason this week I can’t help myself. I know this Seahawks team barely beat the awful Rams in a must-win game last week. Ten points just feels like a huge mountain to climb in a game where I am not sure 40 points total will be scored. Carroll is a good coach who will have his defense ready to go. The forecast for Santa Clara is heavy rainfall for the entire day. I foresee tons of running plays and not that many points. The 49ers likely win something like 17-9, but expecting anyone to score a significant number of points in this game feels like a mistake.
Sam: The 49ers are really good football team, and as much as I want Purdy to come back to life and to call them overrated, I believe their 13-4 record isn’t a fluke. Even in treacherous weather, I think the 49ers can take advantage of a Seahawks team that has a lot of good press, but not the results to back it up. This team was the darling of the season early on, but I think that perception stuck around too long. In the last 10 weeks, the Seahawks have wins against the Rams x2, broken-back Mike White Jets, Cardinals, and GMen. The most exciting win in the slate was against the Giants 10 WEEKS AGO! I’m no expert, so I think there is no shame in taking the Seahawks and the points. It’s a division rival and they’re facing them for the 3rd time this season, but at the end of the day, I’ll be riding heavy on the favorites this weekend.
I know that sounds a bit counterintuitive given we’re the guys that have been telling you to take the dogs all season long. But here’s the thing, I think there might be some reason to believe that in the early round of the playoffs, favorites are set up to perform well. For starters, we’ve had a whole season to separate these teams and higher-seeded teams are usually the ones that know how to put teams out of their misery. Second, this matchup in particular is of great disparity. The 7 seeds barely make it into the playoffs and for a reason at that. I love more football, but I’m not sure there should 7 playoff teams. Of course, eventually one of them is going to upset the 2 seed, but until that day comes, I’ll be taking the favorite.
Yank’s Pick: $5.50 on the Seahawks+10 (-120) and $2.00 on the adjusted total Under 36 (+205)
Sam’s Pick: $7.70 on the 49ers-9 (-110)
The Los Angeles Chargers-1.5 @ the Jacksonville Jaguars (Saturday at 8:30 ET)
Sam: Oooooh-oooooh sometimes I get a good feelin, yea! In this case, I’m feeling the Chargers. Does it make a lot of sense to go with a Chargers team that has no offense when its best player is out? Or when they’re going up against a team that stomped them just a few short weeks ago? Well no, it doesn’t make a lot of sense, but I believe in this Chargers team more than the Jaguars. Everyone is high on the Jags. They looked so great against Dallas! But let’s take a deeper look at who they’ve played the last 5 weeks outside of the Cowboys: Titans x 2, Texans, and Zac Wilson’s Jets. Can you really believe in those wins? Listen, the Charger’s wins aren’t all that exciting either, but they’ve hung tight in a lot of big games against great opponents, while the Jags have wilted under pressure. I’m not boiling over with confidence, but give me Herbert over Lawrence.
Yank: This is a fun week because, for the first time in a long time, Sam and I disagree a lot. I know it was a Jags game so you probably weren’t watching, but did you hear how loud that Jags crowd was last Saturday against Tennessee. Those folks are going to be out in DUUUUVALLL force for this one and they finally have a QB and Coach combination that is worth cheering for. On the other sideline, there is no question Justin Herbert is one of the brightest young stars in the league, but the Chargers have been a different team all year when Mike Williams doesn’t play. This Jaguars defense harassed Herbert earlier this year and I expect them to do so again. The Jags offense worries me and I fully expect this game to go back and forth, but one or two big game-changing plays will decide it, and give me the team with the raucous home crowd and the Super Bowl-winning coach to come up big in those moments.
Yank’s Pick: $5.50 on the Jaguars+2.5 (-110) and $1.00 on the JAX Defense to score a TD (+750)
Sam’s Pick: $5.50 on the Chargers-1.5 (-110)
| Yank | Sam | |
| Risk | $14.00 | $13.20 |
| Potential Earnings | $21.18 | $12.00 |
One Last Line 