Intro by Sam
Well after two full days of football, we’re treated to one last game before moving on to the Divisional Round. After Sunday, Yank and are about dead even at roughly -$2.50. Yank and I both had too much confidence in the Bills and perhaps not enough in the Dolphins, so our bet on the Bills minus the points and Yank’s parlay never really had a shot. With our teams going head-to-head one of us was bound to lose, and of course, it had to be my team. Ugh. Yank pulled out the cover with GMen+3, while I limited some of the damage with a prop bet featuring over on passing/receiving yards for Jones and Barkley that felt like it covered in the first half. I was also 1 more Kirk Cousins rush yard away from a +1463 prop hitting. Alas. Finally, the Ravens pulled through for us, although not for themselves, by helping us cover Ravens+10 against the Bengals. The outcome of tonight’s game will determine who has a winning, net-positive weekend and who will stay in the red.
Wild Card Picks
The Dallas Cowboys-2.5 @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Monday @ 8:15 pm)
Yank: My mantra for Wild Card Weekend was “Don’t overreact to week 18”. It’s easy to get a bad taste in our mouths from a stinker to close the season and ignore 17 weeks of data suggesting a team just had a bad day. Somewhat paradoxically Miami proved this idea right yesterday, costing Sam and me money because we couldn’t get the 9-6 egg Skylar Thompson laid against the Jets last week out of our heads. This game is the mother of all tests for this principle. The Cowboys cost Sam and me $60 apiece last week looking totally hapless on the road offensively against a bad Washington Commanders team with nothing to play for. They looked so inept it became hard to visualize them going on the road anywhere and winning ever again. Bad news for us folks, they are on the road in Tampa tonight. Tampa presents a whole different case study, as Sam and I have MADE money this winter pretty consistently betting one principle: this Bucs team stinks, and they get too much respect because Tom Brady is on the team.
For me, the Cowboys have 17 weeks of data where they mostly looked to be a good football team. Tampa, meanwhile, has honestly only looked good once; in Munich against the Seahawks. Last time I checked this game is on American soil. Sam’s approach here may be a good old David Fizdale “take that for data” strategy, but I’m going to hold my nose, and possibly for the first time ever (?!) bet my own personal currency on Mike McCarthy and the Dallas Cowboys.
Sam: As Yank lays out, we’ve made good money betting against him all season, so it should come as a surprise that I’ll be placing my wager on the Bucs. In terms of rationale, I can’t really provide all that much evidence, but I’ll give it my best shot. For starters, the Bucs won this matchup in Week 1 in Dallas. Additionally, the Bucs defense has been pretty strong in most games, keeping the points that the Bucs offense needs to reach to a minimum. The Cowboys have struggled against teams with a good defense and a defensive line that can create pressure. If they can repeat that performance defensively, Tom Brady knows how to put together a scoring drive when he absolutely needs to. Ultimately though, let’s call this what it is: I don’t believe in this Cowboys team. I’m taking the Bucs ML here and letting the goat get to work.
Yank’s Pick: $5.50 on the Cowboys-3 (+107) and $2.00 on Mike Evans Anytime TD (+200)
Sam’s Pick: $4.50 on the Bucs ML (+120)
| Yank | Sam | |
| Risk | $7.50 | $4.50 |
| Potential Earnings | $9.89 | $5.40 |
One Last Line 