Intro by Yank
The Divisional Round is going to showcase some clear divides this year. For one, it’s a clear break from last year because your boys both still enter this weekend with a chance to put together a compelling record against the spread for the playoffs if we capitalize this week and next. Secondly, there’s a clear talent gap between some of these teams, especially with the one-seeds in each conference being reintroduced to the mix. Will this lead to blowouts or to more “nobody believes in us” momentum for the underdogs? Read on to find out who we’re crossing the divide with.
2023 Playoff Betting Records
| Yank | Sam | |||
| Bet Type | Win | Loss | Win | Loss |
| Moneyline | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Spread | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Over/Under | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Props | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Grand Total | 4 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
2023 Playoff Betting Ledger
| Yank | Sam |
| $0.97 | -$7.35 |
Divisional Round Picks
The Jacksonville Jaguars @ the Kansas City Chiefs-9 (Saturday @ 4:30 PM ET, on NBC)
Yank: Surprisingly this matchup is all about the Jags for me. Two key facts have me skeptical that they can compete on this stage. The first is a classic playoff truism: beware the team that just won their Super Bowl. The Jags just pulled off a giant comeback against all odds. Getting a playoff victory at home was a giant exclamation point on the season for their team and their fans. It is pretty easy to envision a world where they are satisfied with the progress they have made since HUGE LOSER Urban Meyer was fired. Whether you buy that logic or not, it’s the second fact that worries me more. The Jags have simply not been great on the road this year. Going into Arrowhead to face Mahomes is not an environment where I expect them to thrive. Give me the Chiefs.
Sam: Yank definitely has a point when it comes to the Jags super bowl last week. They got their first home playoff game in a few seasons and the emotion spent on coming back from a 20-point can’t be understated. And yet, I’ll be siding with the Jags on this one when it comes to the spread. I think the further we get into these playoffs the tighter the contests will be. The Chiefs are historically dominant because they win, which I fully expect them to do, I just don’t expect them to blow this team out of the water. The Jags have talent and good-enough coaching to make this game at least interesting. And yes, they did lose this game already this season by 10, but I’m counting on Pedersen making some adjustments and coming into the game mostly healthy as enough of a reason for them to cover the spread. Meanwhile, I will be using the Chiefs ML in a series of parlays to cover my behind for the inevitable Chiefs 21+ point win…
Yank’s Pick: $4.60 on the Chiefs-8(-115) and $6.00 on a Chiefs/Niners ML Parlay (-120)
Sam’s Pick: $5.60 on the Jaguars+10 (-127), $3.00 on a Chiefs/Eagles ML Parlay (-185), $3.00 on a Chiefs/Niners ML Parlay (-119), $3.00 on a Chiefs/Niners/Bills ML Parlay (+158)
The New York Giants @ the Philadelphia Eagles-7.5 (Saturday @ 8:15 PM ET, on FOX)
Yank: Absolutely no objective analysis to add here. If you don’t want to hear from a homer, ignore this section. That being said, all the way back in Week 14 I staked my claim that the Giants were beating the Eagles once this year. The Eagles won the first matchup and the Week 18 game became a wash when the Gmen clinched the week before. That leaves this week as the prime opportunity for the Giants who aren’t scared of this Eagles team. Leonard Williams, Xavier McKinney, and Adoree Jackson, three of the Giants top 5 defensive players, missed the Week 14 game. Daniel Jones and the offense are absolutely dealing, finding their groove at precisely the right time. Meanwhile, the Eagles haven’t looked right in weeks, their best offensive lineman has a torn groin and their quarterback has an injured throwing shoulder. Seems kind of important to me. Don’t be surprised if Daboll and the boys walk out of that trash-covered city with a victory.
Sam: I might be looking back at this weekend as a complete overreaction to the previous weekend’s results. Despite the Giants crushing my soul last week, you’ll still find me a fan of what they’ve accomplished this season. This team is not a traditionally *good* football team. Jones is not a great passer of the football (except, importantly, in clutch moments). Their defense has some absolute studs, but also no depth and a questionable secondary. But at the end of the day, they play hard, believe they can compete and win any game, and usually limit mistakes. That can be a recipe for keeping a game close, so I’m risking the Giants spread because it’s over a touchdown. That being said, I will incorporate the Eagles ML in parlays similar to the Chiefs, because at the end of the day, I think the Eagles talent will outperform the Giants. Hence why I have prop bets on Eagles players AJ Brown and Boston Scott. Boston Scott is a bona fide Giants killer going for 10 TDs in his last 8 games against the Giants (oh and he only has 16 career TDs).
Yank’s Pick: $4.32 on the Giants+7.5 (-108) and $3.00 on the Giants ML (+290)
Sam’s Pick: $5.50 on the Giants+8 (-110), $2.00 on AJ Brown anytime TD (+106), $1.00 on Boston Scott anytime TD (+320), and $3.00 on a Chiefs/Eagles ML Parlay (-185)
| Yank | Sam | |
| Risk | $17.92 | $23.10 |
| Potential Earnings | $23.61 | $21.70 |
One Last Line 